Yeah, it’s New York primary day
[UPDATE below]
You wanna make something of it?
I’m not expecting a fun result. The real question is how big Trump’s margin will be, and how the various districts will go.
Here’s an open thread to discuss it all.
UPDATE 10:55 PM
All the returns are not in yet, but it’s shaping up to be a very bad evening for those of us who think a Trump nomination would be a disaster. As expected, Trump was strong overall, but it’s the district breakdowns that were the big unknowns. FiveThirtyEight projects at the moment that Trump will get 91 delegates to Kasich’s 4, and Cruz none (it’s changing slightly even as I write, as more returns come in, but that’s the general picture). Cruz has always been weak in NY, but I had thought Kasich might pull out a few more delegates than that. This is the sort of result I have been dreading for quite some time.
Hillary has done very well, too, as expected.
Reader from Upstate NY here – My Republican friends seem to be about 20% “Trump” and 80% “Not Trump” but that my be an artifact of the circles I travel in. As for myself, I’ll be pulling the lever for Cruz, who was my fallback after Walker and Paul left the race.
Trump came to a rally in the area where I live last week but I missed it (was on vacation elsewhere) so I sadly have no anecdotes to share from that.
I look forward to the results because the data will bring clarity.
I find it of noteworthy interest that, in the Bronx, 125,000 people were mysteriously dropped from the voter rolls, the very heart of Sander’s NYC support. Also, many polling places had broken machines or had no voting machines at all. By hook or crook, Hillary will be pushed across the finish line.
By crook, I well imagine.
Geoffrey Britain:
That is to be expected: Bernie has never really been a Democrat. Sure, he caucused with the Ds, because that’s closer to his political stripe than the Rs. But he’s only a Democrat of convenience. And then the other fact is that Hillary thinks they owe it to her, after standing up for her sleazy husband and stepping aside for America’s first Affirmative Action president.
Hrc in the genaral is a weaker candidate than feel the bern, yet the stupid, yes stupid, trumpsters persist on their kamikaze mission.
F,
No argument as to Hillary’s attitude of entitlement.
But the activist branch of the democrat party has moved far beyond Hillary’s supporters.
I find the assertion that Bernie Sanders now represents the current beliefs of much of the the democrat base far more than does Hillary Clinton, to be irrefutable. Hillary has the delegates and party machinery behind her but a majority of the base belongs to Sanders because they are socialists.
It’s looking like the delegate predictions from Nate Silver (the revised version) is going to happen: Trump will get somewhere in the mid 80s. Kasich will get maybe 10 and Cruz will probably get 0.
The only surprise is Trump’s general overperformance, though a 2 SD bonus should probably not be a surprise in one’s home state.
Trump breaks 50% at last – but don’t lose heart!!
WashPo runs a hit-piece on Cruz, bringing up his “New York values” statement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-york-has-plenty-of-values-that-ted-cruz-wasnt-counting-on/2016/04/16/cebfe572-03ec-11e6-9203-7b8670959b88_story.html
Comment section will make your head explode.
Since NY begat both Trump and Hillary as national political forces, I think the whole damn state should be quarantined from the political process.
Console yourself with the knowledge that things in this country were never going to be the same after Nov 4, 2008. None of us will live long enough to see it get better. Maybe our children, or grandchildren – if a plague wipes out the libruls.
I’ve long been resigned to the next president bein Hillary. If somehow it’s Trump I’m clueless what to expect.
Some solace in honor of our esteemed host NeoNeo regarding the prospect of a Hillary or Trump presidency, a poem by Robert Frost:
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
It is disappointing but Cruz knew he would lose NY. I didn’t anticipate it being this bad but then, IMHO, that “New York values” statement was one of the worst of his campaign. I guess he got it from Donald Trump though who had gone on about his New York values” at some point when he was putting down people in Iowa. Still, I wish Cruz had been gentler with New Yorkers, he needed them. But… maybe it won’t matter. He’s on an upswing but tonight I admit I feel down of course.
I read that 100K Democrat voters in Pennsylvania have registered as Republicans to vote for Trump. I am assuming they are sincere. That’s bad news.
We just have to keep hoping that this is just a bump in the road. I guess I should help out here in California for Cruz.
A commenter at another blog pointed out, Hillary’s vote totals were more than all of the Republicans, indicating who ever the nominee is, NY will go Democrat.
F Says:
“Bernie has never really been a Democrat. Sure, he caucused with the Ds, because that’s closer to his political stripe than the Rs. But he’s only a Democrat of convenience.”
I doubt it will make you feel any better, but, according to Conservative Review, based on his voting record, Sanders is the most conservative non-Republican in the Senate with a rating of 16%, 2% higher than Susan Collins (R-ME). Believe it or don’t, Elizabeth Warren(!) is the second most conservative non-R at 15%.
From there, the non-R scores decline rapidly, bringing their average rating down to a whopping 5.4%.
Question: if the most conservative non-R senator is a proud socialist, ideologically speaking, where does that put the rest of them? Joe McCarthy, where are you when we really need you?
Bob_CA, as Breitbart has pointed out rural counties in California are weighted heavier in the Republican primary, each having 3 delegates with a plurality of votes translating to winner take all. Northern California and Sierra counties are potential Cruz strongholds. Trump can be limited here. We’ll see.
Above, I meant congressional districts, not counties.
And this is important to remember. While the turnout appeared to be much higher in my district in the NY primaries compared to 2012 (I was the 122nd person to vote in my ward at about 8:45 last night; in 2012 I was the 45th person at about the same time of day) the Ds have nearly a 2-1 registration advantage in NY.
@Liberty: Maybe the GOP voters in New York are just sensitive people who need a safe space. Even I immediately understood what Cruz meant when he uttered those words and wasn’t like what the WashPo wrote.
Question: if the most conservative non-R senator is a proud socialist, ideologically speaking, where does that put the rest of them? Joe McCarthy, where are you when we really need you?
I would write it as meaning that “conservative” is a mislabel engineered by the status quo powers. It’s a rather inaccurate description for the anti Left or people who are needed to kill the Left, which are patriots at least. Nationalists at worst.
New Yorkers can be rather outrageous hypocrites, back when they supported their Messiah Hussein’s trash talk about Americans clinging to their bible and guns.
Where was the New Yorkers, too busy opening their mouth for Hillary’s money fist then, right.