The establishment ♥ Cruz
I’ve noticed how often conventional wisdom turns out to be wrong, or at least partly wrong. And yet it gets repeated and repeated and repeated; that’s what makes it conventional, I suppose.
For example, the vitriol against the “establishment” GOP (I word I often put in quote marks because I find that it’s used to mean whatever the writer wants it to mean, which is a shifting target), has all-too-often been based on exaggerations and assumptions and ignorance.
Now, don’t get me wrong, although of course some people will get me wrong. I am not saying that there is no reason to be angry at the GOP. There is, and I often am. But I try to be angry with them (or with anyone, for that matter) for what they have actually done and not done compared to what they might have done or what was reasonable to have done, versus what my fevered imagination would have wanted them to have done had I a magic wand that allowed me to rule the world (or at least to rule the GOP).
In other words, there are reasons for anger, but the reasons should be realistic. And yes, I know that the nature of anger is that it’s rarely realistic.
I could write a book on the failings of the GOP as I see them, versus their failings that I read in the press and on blogs and on talk shows and in comments around the blogosphere. In fact, I probably have written that book, in posts and in comments on this blog. It would take me many hours to dig them up and link to them, time I don’t want to spend right now, but just as a small example take a look at this, this, this, and this, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg of what I’ve written on the subject. Some anger is justified, but a lot of it—a lot of it—is a failure to understand the limits of what can be done in House and Senate when there is a president of the opposition party at the helm.
The rage that has been encouraged and stoked, based on wishful thinking and just plain frustration at the situation—combined with justified anger at certain things that have actually occurred at the hands of the GOP—has given us the present situation the GOP candidates and the voters face this primary season. There is little question that Ted Cruz is both the conservative candidate and the non-establishment GOP candidate, but that doesn’t seem to be enough to express the rage of the “burn it down” crowd. Donald Trump’s success has been the result (not that it’s only due to that, but that is a very significant part of it).
Conventional wisdom has been that the same “establishment” hates Cruz so much that they would prefer Trump to Cruz because they could deal with Trump. I thought that for a while, too, particularly when Rubio was doing well and the establishment’s choice of Trump vs. Cruz didn’t have to be tested. Now that Rubio seems to be sinking (except in Puerto Rico, where he got a hefty 75% of the vote), the conventional wisdom seems to be proving a bit shaky.
For example, there’s a report that a bunch of Senate endorsements are about to come Cruz’s way. RINO Lindsey Graham, previously reported to have detested Cruz, has been talking him up lately and practically telling Kasich and Rubio to quit. More people who either are members of the establishment or former Rubio supporters are saying much the same thing.
I think that Trump’s behavior lately has been so egregious that it has frightened even some people in the conventional GOP “establishment” into doing something they otherwise would not have done: support Ted Cruz, or at least think very seriously about doing so.
[NOTE: Speaking of Trump’s behavior, this video (which hardly even scratches the surface), is a funny concept:
It’s more or less the flip side of that video showing someone with a British accent speaking some of the less outrageous things that Trump has said.]
The GOP establishment may hate or distrust Cruz, but they can see he has a decent chance of winning the general. Trump may have strong fanatical support, but he also has strong fanatical opposition — and a lot of his strongest support is in hard Blue states where no Republican will ever win.
At least some people in the Establishment have figured out that if Hillary wins, there will never be another honest election in this country. The Democrats will be running America the way they run Chicago. Republicans will become a permanent minority party.
And if Sanders somehow wins, there won’t be a country for anyone to win elections in.
Sure, the GOP establishment would like to have Jeb or Rubio in the White House, but even a rebel like Cruz is preferable to either of the Democrats.
Most of the true “Burn it down” types are actually in the Cruz camp, not the Trump camp. These same people would rather vote for Trump than Rubio as the next best option because Shamnesty and Establishment (Put it together: Shamnestablishmentarianism.) 43% of Cruz supporters in NC would support Trump over Rubio. It’s practically deranged. They see Cruz as the one last shot to restore the Republic or it’s lost forever and then they, and their Conservative League of Shadows, will come out and burn it down to reset it and natural order restored, or something.
They believe Cruz can do no wrong even though he’s a political neophyte having stepped out of a law career (he was appointed solicitor general of TX, not elected) and into one race as a conservative Republican in TX. Not all that difficult. He completely misunderstood the politics of the Shutdown- each of the 3 times he advocated for it (the last one being defunding PP which had no shot and only would have hurt the cause. He then turned this into a shot at prolife people who didn’t support that tactic as prolife squishes. He’s a uniter.) He completely miscalculated on Trump and the electoral strategy to win all evangelical votes- mostly based on a myth that they didn’t show up. http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2015/11/26/myth-4-million-conservative-voters-stayed-home-2012/
Cruz has some shot at winning the general election, but it’s only that. He’s an 18 ft putt when Rubio was a 3-5 ft putt.
I like most of his ideas on the merits. He would be the most conservative President in all of history. He also could very well lose. But good luck explaining that to hardheaded Cruz supporters. We’re all in on him now I regardless, I suppose.
The Establishment really just means McConnell and formerly Boehner and co. Moderate Republicans who are in power now and who have grown up mostly losing as a party. Some are corrupted by the system, some just have no sense of the current game (Boehner was that way), and they have been pummeled into submission by years of us losing.
We finally have a number of young conservative reps in Congress who need time to filter their way up. We really just needed an R in the WH this time to finally stem the flow leftward. But no, longshot time!
But after looking at the primary vote this year, shouldn’t it be clear to cosnervatives that we are a minority in our own party too?
A Trump nomination will harm senate and house members running for reelection in states like Illinois, and make it nearly impossible for candidates seeking to unseat democrats in blue states. They would have to distance themselves from the party’s presidential candidate. People like Graham realize Rubio is not going to ride to the rescue and that Cruz is the only candidate who has the possibility of reaching 1237 and avoid a brokered convention. However, the proverbial horses may have already left the barn.
FYI, Idaho is a ‘closed’ primary, but the polls there are different than some of the other closed states, which favored Cruz:
http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/article64525937.html
Guess I need to go dig around for some more up-to-date polls, since the other one I posted on another blog post was claimed to be ‘out of date.’
Why don’t we start this discussion by defining the “establishment GOP” or by tabulating what we deem its features and its membership?
The “establishment GOP” is, simply, the entrenched (established!) powers-that-be-in-the-GOP (it rhymes!) at all levels whether local, state or national.
My local Republican county executive committee has monthly meetings open to the public, which I’ve attended….as the only member of the public. Takes some rooting around to find the meetings. The members are elected every 4 years at primary time, and Lo! they are all elderly(>70) local former politicians.
I can’t speak to our state GOP committee, except to say it is harder to become a member, and the episodic meetings are at some distance, requiring time and money.
But surely we can all speak to the RNC, which is more than Rience Priebus. I know our local RNC committeeman, and making it to that position is no small feat, and, once in, one is difficult to unseat. Over the years I have never been able to persuade or dissuade him of anything. But he is a “conservative”.
So “establishment” = entrenched.
Entrenched means secure, or fairly secure. Dug in. As in a fort or other defensive structure.
Secure means automatically resistant to input from others, said input being viewed as an assault, a storming of the fort’s wall, or an over-running of the trenches. See Neo’s “A mind is a difficult thing to change.”
The entrenched speak meaningfully only to one another. They are dug in together. The Tea Parties were an assault, and they were repelled. With boiling oil and boiling verbiage.
Now Trump and Cruz lead the assault, and we see what the “establishment” has to say, both national and international. AP reports today that “Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto compared the language of Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump to that of dictators Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in an interview published Monday, and said it has hurt U.S.-Mexico relations.”
In short, the “establishment GOP” is the GOP part of Angelo Codevilla’s Ruling Class. Buy the book!
K-E:
A two-months-old poll IS out of date by any stretch of the imagination, in a primary season. I assume you agree with that.
But “out of date” is only a tiny part of the objection to that poll. I criticized it heavily a few days after it came out; that post I linked to was written only a few days after the poll was released, and it was full of criticisms.
The poll was pretty much worthless even at the time it was taken.
If some in the GOPe are in fact shifting toward support of Cruz over Trump, I suspect it is because they have bought into the MSM meme that Trump is a megalomaniac.
Were I a member of the GOPe, I would prefer deal maker Trump to Constitutionalist Cruz and would struggle with deciding whether a Pres. H. Clinton might better serve my long term interests, than would a Pres. Cruz.
My perception is that the majority of the GOPe would first prefer Trump, then Hillary and last Cruz.
As I am not a member of the GOPe and know no one who is, I am not privy to the prevalent zeitgeist among them.
GB,
Its not a msm meme, Trump is a megalomaniac. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. And, because of the direction of the rotation of the planet on it’s axis the sun appears to rise in the east.
I too once believed the gope would support Trump over hrc, and hrc over Cruz because Cruz was their nightmare who would break their rice bowls. Now I think they have shifted to my way of thinking. Trump is a train wreck waiting to derail the gop for a decade, if not forever.
Cruz is establishment (meaning that the people in power that give out commitee heads, stop action, etc through that power, like him, not hate him)
Trump is the anti establishment candidate, meaning he is representing the people who have had no voice for ages… ie. decades…
who has sided with the hated by both parties white males who are now nazis, born racists, get everything easy, and even bernie said none know what its like to be poor.. (so my being homeless and living on a park bench to go to college to have a career out of bronx science, while sis gets 5 degrees on the states bill, is privelege)
who has sided with the residents over the influx? how much influx? well, about a quarter of the population is now immigrant!
H1B visa abuse has been going on since just after reagan when it started… (and the limits are only counted for some groups so the numbers are actually a lot higher)
who represents non union workers who dont get 75% pensions after 20-25 years of service but work to death for a SS payment that isnt enough, medical that isnt enough, and they are talking about taking 401k and changing that too.. rip carpet out from under them…
the list is long.
but trump represents the people who have been crapped on for 40-50 years…
everyone is a protected class except one
everyone gets state help, except the unprotected class
SBA gives so much that none will loan the one unprotected class anything.
they can abuse the unprotected class at work, as there is no legal issue bout violating law for them
the list goes on..
no one has even tried to represent those at all
and they have stayed home
besides… you really think the husband of a Goldman sachs hedge fund person who is CFR is non establishment? there is a certain bridge in brooklyn steve browdie jumped off of that i would like to sell you
$100 for anyone who can find a program that can help me and my wife make a business and go forward with it… (and only if the program accepts us as potential to that program… hint, there are no scholarships, here are no programs for older people of my ilk, SBA will not help their programs overwhelmingly give the farm to women and minorities, etc)
go ahead, i dare you to find one for white males 50 and over… (i couldnt go to college as there is nothing that is not about some other category, like being jewish, or italian etc)
Good to see you again, Art.
Cruz is establishment
Heh, this is surely why he’s so beloved by his fellow Texas Senator John Cornyn. Oh yes. Off to the bank with ye.
Neo, to your point about expectations setting- Talk Radio and Conservative media like Breitbart. They are not bastions of truth telling but rather make more money by riling people up. People have come to see many on our own side as enemies. Many Cruz supporters, e.g., see Rubio and people who like him as such. “He betrayed the Republic!” It’s sad how much these delusions have been fed due to basic disagreement over an issue like immigration or the proper approach toward any sort of reform.
Conventional wisdom was right, until those who made it conventional wisdom appeared to publicly change their previously announced minds.
Maybe they thought that Trump would seem progressively less flamboyant and more grave. Maybe they had not really thought it all through, being fundamentally emotional types, as to what a Hillary victory would mean if it came down to Trump or Hillary and they found they could not really hold their noses and pull the wild card lever instead of the Crony-Socialist-Feminist-Demagogue one.
Cruz, despite his faults, has clearly announced Constitutional and honest government principles, which he has promoted, on the floor of the Senate, to his personal cost in peer popularity.
To that extent he is a proven quantity, and might be seen by someone who is a little corrupt as preferable to others who either might, or more probably will, bring the whole edifice crashing down.
Does anyone think either Hillary or Trump are prepared to deal with the larger world in an effective manner?
If I could somehow pour Cruz’s spine, raw intellect and moral character into a Romney personality shell, I’d make that hybrid president.
But that I cannot do, and I have to admit that Romney did himself no great favor by his recent attack on Trump.
God Almighty … where are the men? Why does everyone seem like such moral midgets? I think I will write my 88 year old father’s name in.
holmes:
Yes, I’ve long thought that talk radio and many blogs are in the business of making money, primarily. That means controversy and extremism and anger, which drives ratings. Reasoned discourse does not ordinarily get a lot of readers or listeners (at least, that’s what I tell myself every day to explain my relatively modest appeal 🙂 ).
Trimegistus Says:
March 7th, 2016 at 4:41 pm
The GOP establishment may hate or distrust Cruz, but they can see he has a decent chance of winning the general. Trump may have strong fanatical support, but he also has strong fanatical opposition – and a lot of his strongest support is in hard Blue states where no Republican will ever win.
&&&&&
Preach it brother.
THE key take away: Cruz is out performing the polls — while he is being blacked out by the MSM.
!!!
In a two-man race, it will be impossible to non-person Cruz.
While he is not Holmes’ cup of tea, Ted Cruz is certainly the anti-Soetoro.
After seven-lean years of Biblical abuse of office, the nation is turning its eyes to not-Democrat.
The same dynamic — that of 2008 — should cause the GOP to GAIN strength in Congress.
The Muslim Hirjah in Europe is only going to build and build into the dominating issue of the campaign.
I anticipate that ISIS will cause Congress to halt immigration — largely across the board.
We HAVE to stop permitting Muslims entry into America.
They have no inalienable right to conduct jihad upon America.
Yet, they DO consider it their ‘religious’ right. ( or rite, either way )
‘“establishment” GOP’
Ahh…the Illuminati!
Meaning of your blog, presumably.
(This is the space where you write the response in in French … Natur … naturole … eh something )
holmes said:
“They [supporters] believe Cruz can do no wrong…”
“The Establishment really just means McConnell and formerly Boehner and co.”
No and no.
K-E Says:
Re: Idaho
The most recent post, released just today, has Trump at 30, and Cruz at 19 with 30% undecided.
Geoffrey Britain Says:
Were I a member of the GOPe, I would prefer deal maker Trump to Constitutionalist Cruz and would struggle with deciding whether a Pres. H. Clinton might better serve my long term interests, than would a Pres. Cruz.
I think the establishment initially wanted Trump because of the “deal maker” angle you mention. After a few weeks of listening to Trump, they’ve decided he’s an embarrassing loon. Probably dangerous, too.
The Donald has Tweeted:
Failed presidential candidate Lindsey Graham should respect me. I destroyed his run, brought him from 7% to 0% when he got out. Now nasty!
Is it just me, or does he actually sound crazy?
Artfldgrs Says:
“Cruz is establishment, blah, blah, blah.”
If Cruz is establishment, he has a damned funny way of showing it. That’s why Trump supporters have to rely on absurd, tinfoil hat conspiracy bullshit to disqualify him.
Birtherism: A man with dual citizenship from birth lives for 4 years in Canada, then 40 years in America but somehow that makes him Canadian. Oh, he also already renounced his Canadian citizenship but never had to apply for any extra consideration of his U.S. citizenship…almost like he’s already a citizen.
Goldman-Sachs: The proponents of this theory who aren’t using it as an excuse for Jew bashing would like you to believe that Cruz is controlled by his GS-employed wife like the mother in the Manchurian Candidate.
I wonder what his trigger phrase is. Probably something involving “maple syrup.”
I will note in closing that disqualification is one of the main tactics of SJWs.
First of all, its not “birtherism” given that the founders never defined what they meant when they used the term, and its an assumption that it means whatever the citizen definition is or changes to – which is why its moving up the courts as its not defined.
the fact that your using the lefts term for what everyone else who knows what its about would use: Natural-born-citizen clause.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-born-citizen_clause
you argue that cruz is a constitutional conservative whatever that really is i don’t know as its kind of redundant unless your going to imply conservatives are not constituionalists, or that cruz wants to follow the constitution more so.
to that there is this:
its a real point… to a purist, its a person born here, to the non purist, its the other definitions that have changed over time. the left takes the latter tact in that they have been fighting for foregners to hold offices in the US for literally decades.
so its not so cut and dried. those who are standing up for the original intent of the constitution, want this resolved one way or another, and not leave it open.
now, do i get to call you a name or imply your sanity over my answer to yours? name calling is a leftist staple too.
oh.. and your tactic of telling everyone what the opposition thinks and blowing it out of reality so you can win the argument with yourself is another leftist favorite (and feminist one too, which is why when i go to a urinal i wonder when the feelings of masculinity and such will fill me up and give me that feeling they say it does… usually i am just glad i can get back to my desk and keep my job)
as to Goldman-Sachs, its natural to think a wife has great sway with husbands and that birds of feather flock together more than opposites attract. and given that the washington political elite likes to marry bankers, is not just random fetish… like hillary and bill, they tend to want to be power couples working to the same ends, and helping each other. not in love, on opposite sides of the spectrum, working alone without connection, and meeting for sex on Thursday evenings… people find it harder to believe the opposite sides and get along in the middle over the Washington power couple who is running for president…
you want cruz to be what you want him to be. thats fine, thats admirable, and telling you what i think in terms of him is my respecting you would listen, but read what you wrote and see if it represents the higher moral action of the conseratives, or did fighting for cruz get you to be like some leftist wack job calling persons names, talking for them, blowing away any real reason to replace it with a made up story no one believes.. like they did when people criticized obama. they said you were racist, and you thought x and y and so on… and that’s what you thought – even if you didnt.
regular people are not so refined that they dont get people who act like trump and do well. to the academics and the hoity toity and so on, he is the ape in a suit dancing at the cotillion… he is of the unwashed masses they despise or act negative towards as a habit. they know tons of bombastic dreamers who bust their humps, people trying to be something, people who if they did succeed would not want to pretend they didnt, and on and on.
maybe its cause i grew up in an inner city slum, was kept out of school despite bronx science, got my degree while homeless, and all those non upper crust life crap that happens to the people who come from less ordered and easy lives. hanging around people who dont spend their time self censoring themselves to control what others think of them. who have tatoos, and maybe a piercing, who say stupid things, and yell at the bar when there is a touchdown. who used to have those factory jobs, who are called bad names by both sides as if they are too stupid to be a part of the country which says there is no place they belong. who cant celebrate themselves as that is evil.
i dont think you have enough respect for the people around you that dont agree to even try to understand them… not one iota of respect that would be needed to take any time to find out. you would prefer to sweep them away than have them not bask in the glory of your choices in agreement.
whatever floats your boat, trips your trigger, lights your candle, turns your page, etc.
Artfldgr:
I assume you’re addressing Matt_SE, but it’s always good to make it explicit to avoid confusion.
It’s birtherism because it’s kooky. There is plenty of legal reason to think Cruz is eligible, but Trump supporters insist on the absolutely most restrictive interpretation because it suits them.
They are hypocrites.
I know that’s true because they swoon about a Trump/Cruz ticket; again, because it suits them by removing the last serious opposition to a Trump presidency.
The problem is, if Cruz isn’t eligible for the presidency then he isn’t eligible for the vice presidency either.
Otherwise, you would have to believe that Trump has no problem making a Canadian his possible successor.
Hypocrites.
artfldgr @ 6:17 – Oh please, nothing has stopped you for 50+ years except you. There is no conspiracy keeping Artfldgr down, despite all the PC BS. You are in many ways an extremely intelligent fellow, but perhaps personality is the impediment. Deal with it, get beyond it, or cry a river.
Matt_SE,
Trumpsters are not hypocrites; they are cultists. Think Jim Jones and the line waiting to drink the kool-aid. True believers in what they do not understand are almost impossible to disaude.
Ann said: “Is it just me, or does he actually sound crazy?”
No, it’s not just you. I’m pretty convinced that, as I said about Al Gore for very different reasons, That Boy Ain’t Right. He’s not insane, but he is clearly unbalanced. I don’t believe it’s all an act.
Geoffrey:
It occurs to me that you may well be “good cop” version of a Trump supporter here in Neo’s comments. I’ve read a lot of the “bad cop” Trump supporter comments at Breitbart and other places, and have to say the ‘good cop’ is better. But can you be convinced by facts and a reasoned argument about Trump’s negative characteristics and unsuitability as POTUS?
I, for one, can’t wait for President Cruz to sign an amnesty bill granting a path to legal residency for 11m people.
holmes Says:
“I, for one, can’t wait for President Cruz to sign an amnesty bill granting a path to legal residency for 11m people.”
Of all the remaining candidates, including Trump and his revolving door in the Great Wall of Trump, Cruz is the least likely to do that.
Geo- you are so certain. And you state it like it’s a good thing.
Neo- I missed your response but you are correct. The market for reasoned and sober discourse is small. NPR and liberal outlets give the appearance of intellectual rigot with their subdued Portland accents and calming talk, but it’s only that.
I tried watching Fox News the other night at the gym and could barely tolerate it. Bill O’Reilly, Hannity, the Five- it’s all bogus nonsense.
holmes Says:
“Geo- you are so certain. And you state it like it’s a good thing.”
The important things are no pathway to citizenship and no voting rights. Cruz has been saying that for over 7 years, plus border control, e-verify and penalties for employers and other self-deportation policies. He didn’t do a 180 just in time to enter this race, while still even having illegals in his employ. That consistency over many years, plus a record of dependably doing what he says he will, and defending the Constitution since high school at least gives me some reason to trust him.
Do you have any strong reasons to trust Trump, in spite of his being a liberal Democrat his entire life, a record of flipflopping on every issue, and his recent squishiness on his deport them all slogan?
NPR and liberal outlets give the appearance of intellectual rigot…
You spelled “rot” incorrectly. Must have been a typo.
“Cruz is out performing the polls – while he is being blacked out by the MSM.”
Actually, it seems to me that Cruz is being hammered by the MSM. Early and often. As much as they can.
Which means to me that he’s the one the MSM and its rad-lib cohorts really fear.
Similarly, though for the opposite reason, the MSM is focusing on Trump’s egregious comments: they believe that doing so can only help Hillary’s own disastrous campaign.
And the scoundrels may be right. She’s got nothing. No competence, no integrity, no experience, no ability. (Besides, she really should be in prison….)
But place her next to the arch-clown Trump and play up the man’s most unflattering qualities, and—hey!—Hillary’s got a chance.
Maybe. (The MSM and its cohorts are truly desperate….)
As mentioned above, this is the same reason why the MSM is going all out to paint Cruz in the most reviling, disgusting and damning colors.
He’s Presidential.