Is North Korea seriously contemplating a nuclear war?
Darned if I know.
Michael Totten doesn’t know, either, nor does anyone except a few North Koreans (and maybe not even them). But he makes some interesting speculations here.
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Another blogger called the North Korean’s game the “Korean Motherland Unity Game of Repeated Chicken” – every six months, without fail, the Norks do it. People do get pretty blase about it, after a while – but Li’l Pudgy is really, really upping the game this time.
One of the things that Michael Totten touched on was the logistics – can the Norks actually field an all-out balls-to-the ball military offensive against the South. Likely not, although they can probably reach Seoul with long-range artillery. When I was stationed there in the mid-1990s, I had a lot of Korean friends (through working with the translaters at KBS – Korea Broadcasting) and we used to speculate on whether the most well-trained Nork invasion force would be able to make it past the first well-stocked Korean grocery store. South Korea is really, really prosperous – and the North is a basket-case. And for all that the Nork top generals have ribbons and sprockets all over their chests – they haven’t really fought an all-out war in 60 years. Any commanders who had field experience it that war have to be in their nineties. Whereas, the US has been in three wars in that same time.
(more along those lines here – http://www.ncobrief.com/index.php/archives/nork/ )
I wonder if a North Korean nuclear attack would ilicit a response in kind.
As Teh Fred said in Hunt for Red October:
This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.
Probably not. BUT. The price of being wrong is terribly high. Could be worse than we suspect it could be.
According to crack geopolitical analysts Geraldo Rivera and Christianne Amanpoor ( if this is misspelled it’s ignorance), it is 100% certain they are not. And also 100% certain they cannot, even if they wanted to. And even more certain the US is overreacting to a silly little man and making it remotely possible they will do something rash by our scolding him.
I was extremely relieved that 2 of the worlds foremost authorities on North Korean intelligence and military capability were so adamant about the results of their carefully researched study.
I expect as soon as the state department is briefed on the study, things will get back to normal, and the 2 of them can lay claim to the Nobel Peace Prize for defusing an international crisis
Sgt. Mom – you sound like you know this place pretty well – I’ve been to Seoul but I’m no expert on the place. Does the North’s true capability really matter?
If they can lob a few errant missles over the border and hit any populated area, it would be bad enough- similar to Israel/Palestine. Even a crude nuke could kill thousands. And the North can sit and wait for the South to come to them. There’s no reason for the North to invade if it’s able to sit back and lob missles over the border. I don’t know what the South’s missile defensive or offensive capability is to respond — but there’s not many vital targets in NK either.
And I’m not convinced our response would be anything more than a stern lecture and condemnation from his emminence.. maybe we could offer a missile defense shield and defensive assistance, but I don’t believe we would intervene in any conflict that close to China’s border. And it’s becoming evident to a lot of observers that our own dear leader isn’t one to back up his threats.
So if you’re a guy running a place that hasn’t much to lose, this would be a narrow window of opportunity to test a country that is struggling internally with financial problems, and hasn’t shown any will to defend traditional allies.
My Navy friends tell me we’re no longer in a position to defend the ME and the Pacific (or any 2 separate sustained conflicts) since decisions in the late 90s to reduce fleet strength.
What do you think?
Southpaw, I did know Seoul well enough to get around on my own, but I didn’t speak Korean and my knowedge of it all is almost twenty years old – but … given that; Seoul is a huge, modern city – and the only evacuation routes out go through some pretty narrow corridors. It’s about thirty miles south of the DMZ, and it’s been pretty well accepted that the Norks have any number of well-protected long-range artillery pieces aimed at it. Of course, being the big place that it is, practically any hit would cause casulties. That, I think, is the single thing that has kept the ROK (Republic of Korea) from pushing the Norks too hard – knowing that Seoul is square in the bullseye, and the Norks could kill umpty-million citizens. They’re hostages, in a way. But that might make the South Koreans very, very angry; I’ve read that they were furious about the sinking of the Cheonan. OTO, they have a peacenik element all too eager to lay down and lick the Kim family boots – and all too eager to blame any conflict on the US. It’s always our fault, whether we act, or not. I saw on one of the newspaper websites, that South Korean peace protesters were demanding that Sec’y Kerry go forth at once and make peace with the Norks. Li’l Pudgy could very well be taking advantage of a window of opportunity.
I can’t say with certainty about our Naval defense of our allies in the far east – I’ve been out of the military since 1997, but your friends may be depressingly correct. On a cheerful note, I’ve always had a sense that the ROK and Japan can take very good care of themselves, and should have been encouraged to do so well before know, even if only for their own national self-confidence. For all I know, the average ROK citizen may be tired of the semi-annual chicken game and inclined to say, “Bring it on, Short Stuff.” The ROK Marines are, BTW, some of the baddest military mo-fos whose boots ever hit the ground. Or so is the impression of my daughter, a two-hitch Marine herself.
“So if you’re a guy running a place that hasn’t much to lose”
I’ve never been to SK, I’m no NK expert by a long shot, but don’t the people at the top of the regime — especially the top brass — have much to lose? They eat well, they have nice homes, and they have power over millions.
I don’t have any particular knowledge about North Korea, but from what I’ve read the new leader always has to prove he’s a badass by issuing threats. Also, in the past said threats have often resulted in more Western aid. So I guess they figure there’s no reason not to do it.
But propping up a regime like that is unconscionable, in terms of the cost to actual human beings. When I hear the phrase “international community”, I figure it refers to governments and national leaders. Apparently they feel that they have more in common with each other than with the peasantry.
As George Carlin said, “It’s a small club, and you ain’t in it.”
After the recent escalation in its rhetoric, the NK may have exhausted all the tricks it has in its bullying tactics.
It seems it is likely to face a situation where it would lose face when it is ignored by all others.
The international community should not resume or even consider to resume any talks with NK until it backs down by itself totally and completely.
China should reduce its trade and particularly aid with NK each time the NK plays bully, to make NK’s life more difficulty to send signals that its wayward bully will not work in its own interests but only the contrary.
The last time people thought the world was too civilized for the evils on the horizon to visit them, there followed two world wars, national socialism, and international socialism.
Never underestimate the evil of the rules Kim.
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