It’s the economy…
…stupid.
I noticed something worth mentioning: according to this memeorandum roundup of articles, this time around even many of the liberal and leftist newspapers and blogs are reporting this as bad news, and not ignoring the fact that a lot of people have dropped out of the workforce.
Interesting, no?
“…many of the liberal and leftist newspapers and blogs are reporting this as bad news…”
Interesting? Only if you think this makes a dime’s bit of difference in their attitude and support in the coming general. It doesn’t and it won’t.
vanderleun: I’m not suggesting that the MSM won’t support Obama in the coming election, so no, I don’t think it will make a dime’s worth of difference in that respect. But I find it interesting that they’re reporting this and giving the information that reflects negatively on Obama to their readership. It might even make a dime’s worth of difference to some of those readers. I’m wondering why the MSM isn’t bothering to spin this in the usual way.
Artfldgr: and by the way, if you actually read the NY Times article I’m talking about here, you’ll see that many many cohabiting couples eventually marry, and then they divorce more often than those who didn’t cohabit to begin with. So the “cohabitation effect” being discussed here is not about why men don’t marry or why they want to avoid divorce (as I tried to convey in my “Note” at the end of the post). These are men who are cohabiting, then marrying, and then divorcing at higher rates than men who don’t cohabit before marriage.
The BLS method of determining the unemployment rate makes their pronouncements worthless if one is interested in reality. People are not simply “dropping out of the job market”. They have exhausted their benefits and joined the welfare roles, they are working 2 or more part time jobs, they opted to take SS at 62, they moved into mom’s basement, and so forth.
Real unemployment must be somewhere around 15% and under employment north of 20%. Its definitely the economy, stupid time.
In past posts I’ve noted that it wouldn’t surprise me to see the left-stream media turn on Obama because it’s most important to preserve the leftist ideology and at whatever point it is deemed that Obama is no longer effective at that he becomes excess baggage. They eat their own!
There’s also a second and subsequent possibility; with the possibility that the media is beginning to realize that Obama may lose this election this may be a semi-conscious attempt to salvage some credibility. After their despicably unfair treatment of G W Bush followed by their obsequious treatment and defense of all things Obama someone somewhere in media land must realize that if they go to the wall in covering for for Obama and Obama loses, they have no future credibility and no more power to influence American culture or politics.
In my book, however, this would be a futile attempt because they irrevocably lost their credibility a long time ago.
This slowing is no surpise. The increasing gas prices have taken their toll. Even though oil dropped today and gas prices have leveled off, most people are paying north of $3.75/gallon. This means less money for consumption and it adds to the cost of all goods because so much is delivered by planes and trucks. We may not dip back into recession, but if not, it will be a close thing. If things work out as I foresee (stagflation over the next five months), my prediction is that Obama is toast in November.
JJ fomerly, etc.,
I’ve been bearish for many moons so color me jaded and cynical… but IMO things are not going to work out. In the long run not only is BHO toast, but the global economy is toast burnt into cinders. It will start in the EU and spread like wild fire and as Johnny knows bad news travels like wild fire.
Yet, we live day by day and we try as best as we are able to turn the grind stone to produce a better tomorrow. We do what we can and make the best of our situation. That is all we can do and so we, the responsible ones, do it and do it again and again.
The trick to understanding democrat motivations on the economy is to note how select members of society are doing very well at the cost to others. My lib friend in the video business has had taxpayer dollars funneled in his direction for govt projects these past three years to give him the best three years of his career.
That’s what you call a GREAT recession.
As i recall my lib friend did videos these past three years on raising awareness of lost lost duck habitat and lost wetland habitat. Funny how there was zero govt funding to raise awareness of the 16 millions Americans who lost their habitats in the same time frame.
I fear that the U.S. economy is approaching stall speed. GDP growth in the first quarter was about 2%. Last month’s job growth was about 120,000 when 200,000 are required to tread water. About 300,000 people dropped out of the labor force. People without jobs don’t have money to spend in an economy where 70% is consumer spending.
Most people agree that Europe is crashing with depression level unemployment in Greece and Spain with more to come.
With student loan debt now exceeding all credit card debt and all car loan debt, young people can’t buy cars or houses.
That hopey changey thing did not work out.
“That hopey changey thing did not work out.”
Did anyone of rational thought ever think it was going to?
T,
There’s that woman who thought Obama was going to pay her mortgage and put gas in her car.
If hell on earth is interesting… sure.
Here it is. It’s a shame people can be so duped.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
I’m a peaceful man, but this whole victim clannish idenity makes me want to hammer down on lazy, feel entitled to the sweat of others parasites. I’m so glad I live in fly over country where choose to be victims are rare.
Parker said, “I’ve been bearish for many moons so color me jaded and cynical… but IMO things are not going to work out.”
Yes, I agree that Europe, at least southern Europe, is going to have a deep recession and that will affect us, no doubt about it. Things are not all that great in Asia and South America either. That said, we can come back, if we can get a government in place that gets out of the way of the economy. However, the sands are running through the hour glass and everyday of economic malaise makes it that much harder to get the engine running again. That’s why this election is all about the economy.
These days remind me a lot of the late 70s. Things seemed equally bad then. I had my family in a mountain retreat with guns and ammo, a bag of silver coins, and a plan to live off the land when everything came to a halt. Imagine my surprise that, after double digit inflation, we then had 15% interest rates to kill the inflation, which in turn caused a very deep recession; everything held together. Not only did it hold, but with a government that encouraged the economy, we prospered for 17 years. Confidence that there is a better future out there for the taking is what we need. Call me a wild eyed optimist, but I believe we can do it again.
JJ formerly,
From reading your Neo posts for the past 2 yrs I can readily say you are an honorable person, but IMNSHO you are a few dollars short of reality. I too believe “we can do it again” but alas, we can not do it again unless 50%+ believe in the dream of America. To “do it again” will require deep sacrifices and I doubt the ‘99%’ understand the sun does not rise in the east.
I think the situation is an order of magnitude worse today than it was in the late 70s.
The debt we have today was inconceivable back then, and we’ve had at least two generations who have been deliberately dumbed town to ignore and disdain American history and values.
As is often said at Belmont Club, we’re running out of design margin.
“down”, not “town”, of course.
I worked with a bunch of faith-based libs twenty some years ago.
During the Reagan improvements, we were told many times we had to be sensitive to the “discouraged workers”, those not represented in the unemployment figures.
I don’t see the same emphasis this time around.
The situation seems worse than it was in the 70s, but IMO, it’s not. Here’s why. We have a more powerful economy than we did then. The S&P 500 companies have just finished reporting last quarter’s earnings. In spite of a crappy economy, 75% were good. Because of the internet, cell phones, computers, and much more, our companies are far more efficient than in the 70s. The managers have been doing a good job during bad times. The level of the stock market reflects that.
In addition, we now have the technology (horizontal drilling & fracking) to solve our energy problem. This economic malaise is primarily due to high energy costs, government restrictions on producing more of our now available resources, and uncertainty about taxes and regulations. The 70s economic malaise was due to much the same things. Because we now have the ability to solve our energy problems, if the government will get out of the way, we’re much better off than in the 70s. Back then our energy companies had to look overseas for new energy sources. They were successful, but now, with most new overseas oil sources locked up by national soveignty issues and new demand from India and China, more sources must be opened up here in the U.S. (It would do wonders just to reduce the amount of money we send overseas for imported oil.)
The debt is larger, but we have to look at the debt closely and see why it is different. I like to read a blog called the Skeptical Optimist. The blogger, Steve Conover, injects what I think is some perspective into the economic picture. Here’s an essay on the debt and why the economy matters:
http://tinyurl.com/8yvv7z6
Read it to get a different take on the debt issue.
Look at the chart of the debt and who we owe it to. The biggest chunk, 31.2% of the debt (almost $5 trillion), is owed to the Federal government. That is the “not so trustworthy” Social Security/Medicare trust fund. That’s why people like Paul Ryan are talking about the necessity of reforming SS and Medicare. If we can reduce those two entitlement programs by 10-15%, hold discretionatry spending flat or lower, and increase revenues by getting the economy moving again, we will be well on our way to solving our debt problems. That’s why it’s the economy that matters in this election. Call me a foolish optimist, but there are solutions to our problems if we will but see them.
Yes, I too have noticed that even the mainstream-media outlets are no longer “ignoring the fact that a lot of people have dropped out of the workforce,” as they did before. Seeing as how even three months ago I would have considered that to be nigh impossible, I think it is significant.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/ + tens upon tens upon tens of trillions in unfunded liabilities coming due in 20 years = ? BTW, the Federal Reserve is not your friend. Credit Default Swap says it all.