Home » Israel and Lebanon: let’s play dominoes

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Israel and Lebanon: let’s play dominoes — 43 Comments

  1. Neo,

    There is no question that the wheels have come off the “plucky little Lebanon, hostage of terrorists” story.

    There has been no shortage of Cassandras trying to get attention paid to the threat of Islamic aggression and they have treated pretty much as the mythical character from which the term is derived. It is so much easier to just not think about it because the implications of actually countering the aggression have, especially in the US, the potential for widening political fault lines.

    Unlike the Cold War there is not going to be any broad bi-partisan coalition and there are many voices, world wide, willing to trade the possibility of a thousand years of Islamic domination just to bring down US “hegemony”.

    The current administration, after a great strategic start seems to be faltering as the political cleavages become apparent.

    The fact that Israel stumbled coming out of the gate, by not taking on Syria as well at the out set, is neither here nor there at this juncture. We can’t know, either, just how much of this was due to the US setting the ground rules of the engagement.

    I have always believed Hoffer’s ’68 essay to be prescient; Israel is the canary in the coal mine. Its very existence has always stuck in the craw of the “forces of darkness”, as throughly pre modern as that concept is.We always knew they would come for Israel first and you don’t have to be a Jew or a neo-con to believe that.

    At this point the US, who looks to be standing alone, once again, faces a Gordian Knot whose outer strands are labeled “Iran” with a core called Islam. Untangling it is not an option and cleaving it with a sword stroke doesn’t seem to be on the agenda right now.

    But, eventually the sword will have to strike and it is beyond the reach of our proxy in this proxy war. There were a lot of civilians in Dresden and that didn’t stop us the last time we confronted evil and it shouldn’t stop us now. It is a fact of war that bystanders and the innocent perish.

  2. Siniora too, has proved to be yet another in teh long and illustrious list of failed Arab leaders.

    His display of tears at a summit of Arab League leaders is as transparent as the towels at a cheap and tawdry motel.

    The Arab League is an organization whose entire fuction is to do whatever is neccesary to perpetuate the regimes of Arab tyrants and dicators.

    There is not one single example of the Arab League ever doing anything to improve the lives of Arabs. There have been no educational, industrial or job initiatives ever supported or initiated.

    That the Lebanon is pinning it’s hopes on the UN is Dali-esque in it’s absurdity.

  3. The “weakness and downtroddenness” is a big issue, IMHO. Islamics are not perceived to be a real threat to Western civ, and in fact they wouldn’t be if the West took them serious as a threat.

  4. Neo:

    Your recent series of posts on the situation in the ME has (like its series of counterparts at The Belmont Club) brought out its share of trolls, who, by their very existence, mirror a malaise that seems to have beset the West. No doubt the usual suspects or their sock puppets will show up here again to accuse us of racism, bloodthirstiness, and worse. But I KNOW people like this: they’re out there in polite society, at book clubs, university student unions, and faculty lounges. And the mindset is carved in concrete. They will not, CANNOT see the signs. We’re just over-reacting, we’re setting up straw men to justify our “Americanization” of the world, because things just can’t be—they JUST CAN’T BE—that bad. It’s all about money, oil, “hegemony”. Were the Gramscians that effective? Have we lost touch with the core values of classical liberalism? Is there no way to reach these lost souls, short of 9-11 redux or worse?

  5. Stumbley: The Gramscians may well be that successful. It was their aim: take down western culture, bury the western canon, attacking the notion of the family, attacking religion. They’ve had a long start, they’ve come a long way.

    Just look at the demographics illuminated by your sectors: book clubs, university student unions, and faculty lounges: academia is their haven and safe house. One of their number has to be as blatant as Ward Churchill before they will consider even adminishing him.

    Sigmund, Carl & Alfred: “There is not one single example of the Arab League ever doing anything to improve the lives of Arabs.” :

    Exactly. Without the Palestinians to take the role of the miserable downtrodden, the Arabs would have little to complain about. The Arab world is not exactly penniless – why then have they not come to the aid of their poor brothers? (Because it perfectly suits their purpose for their brothers to remain poor.)

    Ans speaking of seiges of Vienna, I recommend to your readers the blog

    Gates of Vienna

  6. As the “revolutionary fervor” of the 60’s faded, I had a ringside seat for the debut of the Gramscian’s agenda.

    I had been running an ad hoc, witting and unwitting informants, network inside the Weather Underground and its above ground groups/supporters for some time before finally turning it over to the Feebs, the domestic intelligence specialists(?). I did however continue to do “participant observation”, (My absence after several years would have been noticed and remarked upon) of a number of above ground groups and watched them morph into Gramsci (see link) and his later interpretors had pride of place in these efforts although by this time overt ideological discussion had lost it’s tang and the programs were more instrumental and not impeded by all night criticism sessions, for example.

    These groups, even after they shed their semi-underground panache, provided the support mechanisms that seem to have been so effective. I have kept track of many of the participants through university alumni links and other means and they have become, professors, attorneys, upper management governmental administrators, journalists, professionals, entrepreneurs and entertainment industry types; the whole range of middle class endeavors.

    Almost all of them are still, in some way committed to a version of the “Struggle in the Belly of the Beast”.

  7. When a religion has borders as bloody as Islam’s, it is prudent for peace-loving people to live as far away from muslims as possible–allow no muslim borders nearby.

    Unfortunately, France, Belgium, Scandinavian countries (except Denmark), and other western European countries are allowing muslims to create formidable borders within their very borders. This means that the cities of Norway, Sweden, Belgium, France, etc. may very well come to look exactly like the Israel/Palestine and Israel/Hezbollah borders. Almost daily terrorist attacks of one sort or another.

    Denmark seems to be the only European country smart enough to restrict immigration below the crisis point.

  8. “Take a look at Alexandra’s an excellent post on the subject. Iran is behind a great deal of the turmoil in Iraq, via al Sadr; it is behind Hezbollah. And Iran has declared itself boldly: it is dedicated to the destruction of the great and little Satans, the US and Israel.”

    If you need to ask why neoconservatism is well and truly dead – just read that.

    Nevermind the illegal U.S. invasion, occupation and destruction of Iraq – it’s all Iran’s fault that it hasn’t worked out.

    Nevermind that Israel has so many UN resolutions against it it should simply be kicked off the planet; or that Israel has been invading Lebanon at will since the 50’s and Hezbollah is it’s creation(and Lebanon’s first – they are Lebanese) -it’s all Iran’s fault.

    Get a life Neo, for gods sake woman….

  9. Iran gets nukes within 10 years:
    probability 10%.
    Or is that 90%?

    Depends on Bush, on America, on Israel, on the Reps; the Dems; the media.

    “Get out now of Iraq” means: Let Iran get nukes. The Reps are NOT making it the issue it should be.

    Iran will get nukes unless the USA stops them.
    99.999% — the UN will NOT stop Iran.

    If Iran gets nukes, one lands on Tel Aviv (within 5 years): 50%.
    Russian roulette like in the DeerHunter.

    Israel is fighting for its life.

    There is no myth of the Strong, Good King, fighting the Weak Bad Villians. Try to find a book or story — today’s reality is outside all myth. It can’t be understood.

  10. Iran having nukes will be the best thing to happen in the middle east in a long time, unfortunately.

    I’d rather nobody had them – but having Iran go nuclear would stop Israeli aggression dead – and probably have them rushing to settle with the Palestinians too – cause the U.N can’t do it.

    Thanks to the United States of America.

  11. Iran doesn’t need nuclear weapons to destroy Israel if it really wanted too.

    It’s conventional missle arsenal(which has grown in the last few years – thanks to the Bush administration for that one people)is enough to wipe out the tiny state.

    Of course, Israel’s undeclared, illegal nuclear program (which if it really wanted Iran to dismantle, would dismantle it’s own) is enough to wipe out the entire middle east.

    Oh so many options, so little brains…

  12. Yhamir | 08.07.06 – 8:39 pm |

    …having Iran go nuclear would stop Israeli aggression dead…

    So which do you prefer: “Heil Hitler” or “Allah Ackbar”?

  13. Yhamir,

    It will be impossible to reach you in a post, a blog, or even a book. But it must be stated, plainly; you are who neo-neocon is talking about.

    Yanhir, you are a twisted, primordial ghoul. I will pray to God (not Allah)(accept no substitutes) for your soul, for you so, so badly need it.

  14. “Iran having nukes will be the best thing to happen in the middle east in a long time, unfortunately.”

    Well, I don’t mind Ahmadinejad using his nukes on his Sunni neighbors to bring about his 12th Imam at the end of times either.

    However, Iran, if it means what it says and says what it means, will mass martyr itself on the Jews first if no one stops it. Rational people cannot permit this to happen.

  15. The time is coming when the US will have to fish or cut bait with regards to Iran.

    It would not take one American boot on the ground to achieve the goal of ending its nuclear ambitions and it would soon devolve into ethnic divisions with the Kurds and the Azari’s jumping ship first.

    Soon Iran would resemble the former Yugoslavia having fallen apart into small ethnic states. Iraq will be doing this soon as well and it is a process that should be supported and applauded. The boundaries drawn by the Great Powers after WW I have never made any sense. A democratic Iraq was always a pipe dream of those who saw it as a counterpoise.

    Ever seen a bucket full of crabs? If one crab looks to reach the edge and get out, another crab will inevitably pull it back into the bucket. Peasant societies greatly resemble this model. The Middle East as a series of smaller crab buckets will be much easier to deal with. Given this scenario, Syria would also fall apart into its component parts. The ME is a patchwork jury rigged into states. Better a patchwork in the long run.

  16. 08/07/06 AP: Whiskey And Golf Before Rape-Murder?

    08/07/06 NPR: Sunni Militias of Baghdad Are Recruiting

    08/07/06 AP: Iraq PM criticizes U.S.-led attack

    08/07/06 DoD Identifies Army Casualty
    Pfc. Brian J. Kubik, 20

    08/07/06 DoD Identifies Army Casualty
    Sgt. Leroy Segura Jr., 23

    08/07/06 Reuters: Gunmen kill four Iraqi soldiers at checkpoint in Muqdadiya

    08/07/06 Centcom: ROADSIDE BOMB KILLS 3 U.S. SOLDIERS

    08/07/06 APF: Six Iraqi soldiers killed in Baquba

    08/07/06 AP: 9 Iraqi soldiers killed in truck bombing

    08/07/06 Reuters: Roadside bomb kills 6 civilians

    08/07/06 Reuters: Bomb kills civilian in Khan Bani Saad

    08/07/06 AP: Bomb wounds 10 on Palestine Street, 2 bodies found

    08/07/06 AP: Two policemen killed in Mosul

    08/07/06 AP: 3 killed in U.S.-Iraqi raid of Shiite militia stronghold in Baghdad

  17. Here is an excellent blog piece that explores the partitioning of Iraq and gives some background on the drawing of borders on a map that ignored the realities on the ground.

    It stands to reason that if the ersatz “states” of the ME were encouraged and allowed to devolve into their ethnic and/or religious components contention for power internal to the new states would take a great deal of the energy directed toward erasing Israel and sponsoring Jihad. In addition, they would be far easier to play off against each other with combinations of carrot and stick.

  18. On thing Yhamir siad that I do agree with (though for very different reasons): “Iran having nukes will be the best thing to happen in the middle east in a long time, unfortunately”.

    The parallels with the beginning of both World Wars is strong (in fact, almost any major war you read about is similar). Both would have ended much better if the agressors had gotten something too strong early. Right now I do not see any country capable of doing what needs to be done having the will to do so until something *really* major happens (while 9/11 was a tragedy, it was not major by todays standards – not even the standards of the past).

    It’s too easy to think “It can not be that bad” (true in more than just this – go ask any decent system administrator in your IT department if people think that active security is useful). This handwringing appeasement has happened hundreds – probably thousands – of times throughout history. It’s something few ever seem to learn, and those that do are exasperated for years on end.

    I do not believe that Iran can resist using them, I believe that it will cause the tragedy needed. Otherwise I think we will see medium levels of violence for the next few decades. Though if not Iran there are quite a few others I would say the samething. 9/11 wasn’t enough, I think it will take a MAJOR attack (and even then most of the countries that were not attacked will go on handwringing – but then they will not interfere either).

    It’s like being told driving reckless will kill you vs having the wreck – you can rationalise all you want if you want to drive that way (all of us know someone who does or has done this) and many will automatically know not too even having never been in a wreck. Loosing control and wrecking ends the rationalising for all but the most die-hard believers.

  19. senescent wasp wrote: “A democratic Iraq was always a pipe dream of those who saw it as a counterpoise.”

    You mean that the necons have all along been smoking some… er, substances, in pipes. My, my…

  20. Neo,

    This post ties into the one regarding Victor Davis Hanson’s piece. The question is, is it 1936? 1938?

    When Hitler was amassing power, the other “Great Nations” were more than willing to turn the other way or even hand over smaller nations to appease the beast. They also were willing to sacrifice the Jews to the monster.

    Now they can do both in fell swoop.

    Of course, just as before, the monster will soon turn to devour them too, but that’s tomorrow. Today they sip lattes and congratulate each other on how civilized and peaceful they are.

    Although my country is one of the few trying to fight this threat directly, even we are dropping the ball. We keep cutting the heads of the Hydra, and keep ignoring the body from which it grows.

    Perhaps we have no choice, in that too many of the nations who we should be able to rely on, who had been through this thing before a little more than 3 score years ago, are once again craven. Of course, much of our own people are appeasers as well.

    I unfortunately have to agree with strcpy; I think things will need to get horribly worse before they possibly get better. The West will need to have, in the words of Herman Wouk, the scales on their eyes shot off before they wake up from this moral coma they are in. Of course, the problem is when things get worse, they may continue to do so to unimaginable depths.

    One wonders, BTW, what will happen to the terrorist cheerleaders in our midst when that happens. Will they wake up as well, or will they continue their diatribes, openly declaring themselves allied with the enemy.

    BTW Pete,

    Just a tip: Quoting headlines from Reuters right now is not quite as effective as you might think.

  21. strcpy wrote:

    “This handwringing appeasement has happened hundreds – probably thousands – of times throughout history. It’s something few ever seem to learn, and those that do are exasperated for years on end.”

    I wholly respect you disagreeing with my assessment of the ‘benefits’ of having Iran obtain the bomb.

    I’m not sure what you mean, though, by ‘appeasement’.

    What would you site as ‘appeasement’ – in Iran and the other buring issues in the middle east – the occupation of Arab lands by Israel.

    I’m not sure I understand.

    And a second question: What convinces you that Iran would use a nuclear weapon unprovoked?

    Rhetoric? Do you not consider the geo-political concequences of Iran doing so to be significant enough to warrent consideration?

    I’m just curious with the level of certainty – without evidence or analysis – of your assertions…

  22. Yhamir wrote

    “Nevermind that Israel has so many UN resolutions against it it should simply be kicked off the planet”

    Honesty is refreshing, and he is in good company.

  23. “Well, I don’t mind Ahmadinejad using his nukes on his Sunni neighbors to bring about his 12th Imam at the end of times either.

    However, Iran, if it means what it says and says what it means, will mass martyr itself on the Jews first if no one stops it. Rational people cannot permit this to happen.”

    And you consider yourself ‘rational’? Using nukes against Arabs is fine, but use them against Jews is a nightmare.

    O.k…..

  24. Neo wrote

    “So here’s another domino theory for you, updated: Iran is bent on hegemony, and Lebanon is a pawn in the game. Take a stand here, and it might help stop Iran. Give in, and more than Lebanon may be lost. Think Czechslovakia in World War II.”

    Theory it may be, but theories usually offer some evidence; a list of points that offer credibility to it. Iranian hegemony? First off you’d probably want to demonstrate that Hezbollah is an outright agent of Iran – of which the evidence of that is slim to none. Iran has some influence – but Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon with it’s own political will and goals(which even Neo you’d think would be aware of by now). Second you’d probably want to offer some kind of historical evidence to back up the claim of Iranian ‘hegemony’. Of course there is very little to none of that either.

    “The situation is further complicated by the fact that we are now in an atomic age. Previous tyrants never had access to destructive means of this magnitude. But now they do. This particular marriage of tyranny, religious megalomania, and nuclear physics has never been consummated before. But get ready: that horrific menage a trois is about to take its vows.”

    Can’t argue there. But I’d only add that this marriage includes the Zionist regime and the U.S regime – both fundamentally religous extremists – in the case of America, more so that at any other time. Truly frightening. Coupled with the consistent threats to use nukes against sovereign nations on a whim, even more so….

    “At the moment, Israel is fighting for its life. Some care about that, some don’t. Some would cheer if the entire country were wiped off the face of the earth. But make no mistake. The words of Eric Hoffer, written in 1968, resonate with eerie prescience:”

    This is of course, plunges Neo into her paranoid fanatasy world. What evidence does she offer? None. Because when making such claims about Israel, it seems, none is needed.
    Of course selling that claim to ‘thinking’ people would require some serious skill in fictional prose – of which Neo wisely refrains from…

    “Is this another siege of Vienna, one of those pivot points in history? If so, let’s fervently hope it pivots in the right direction.

    And the first step towards that goal is recognition that this is not a minor skirmish. Israel is fighting for its life, but not only for its life. It’s fighting for the West and the Enlightenment against formidable and implacable forces of darkness and religious tyranny.”

    Of course, recognition would require providing evidence that this is the case.

    1)Israel is fighting for it’s life.

    2)That Israel is fighting for the West.

    3)That it is fighting against forces of ‘darkness’ and ‘religous’ tyranny.

    All pretty spurious claims that require no analsis, apparently.

    Neo – why don’t you try and write something that makes sense for a change?

  25. Pete,
    First I am not a neo-conservative. I am an actual Paleolithic conservative, active in politics since my youth except when constrained by the Hatch Act applying to active duty military personnel. And, My name is Legion in the heartland of America.

    Neo-Cons, as part of their intellectual baggage, brought with them an almost childlike faith in democracy. I think that democracy requires “fertile ground” to thrive and backward tribal, peasant society is not good ground.

    I am one of many who believe that one of the primary strengths of the US is Self Interest, rightly understood in de Tocqueville’s classic phrase. Too many people think that the scummy crust, the self appointed elites, that inhabit our coasts speak for the US, I know differently.

    I have no problem with the projection of power beyond our borders to secure what lies within our borders. We are at war and might as well get good at it to make quiescent that which would threaten the US. My personal motto is, “No friends, fewer and fewer enemies”, regarding the thugs and sadists who would threaten us.

    Mine is not a “nuanced” position, it is absolutist. If anyone has a problem with that they can talk to the hand.

  26. Yahmir, you have a bad case of YLYD syndrome, clearly so. You know folks, we mirror the mire of nations in our private lives. (ain’t that a nifty saying?) We opine and fret and stew about the affairs of nation states yet are not proactive in our own personal affairs, a microcosm of the world. If I were the Host, I would gut-shoot you Yahmir and leave you convulsing and bleeding on the sidelines, free to spew your bullshit in other places more receptive to your placating nihilism. If anyone wants to know what YLYD syndrome is, you’re going to have to beg for the answer – I’m tired of disclosing for nothing the meaning of secret troll acronyms.

  27. Need I say, that it is better not to engage trolls, advice I have difficulty following myself?

    No one owes it any “evidence” which would be rejected out of hand in a further attempt to take over the thread anyway.

    goesh, you feed its fantasies with yours. Besides,it is better to apply CNS or Center of Mass hits so as to not leave something behind the advance that might be a threat to others.

  28. well all right then and here I was hoping you would beg to learn what YLYD means…..

  29. “goesh, you feed its fantasies with yours. Besides,it is better to apply CNS or Center of Mass hits so as to not leave something behind the advance that might be a threat to others.”

    Remember what I said, Wasp, regarding some Trolls being Zombies? Gotta go for the head hits in that case. It’s the only way.*

    *It’s a joke, you reactionaries!

  30. Of course, recognition would require providing evidence that this is the case.

    1)Israel is fighting for it’s life.

    2)That Israel is fighting for the West.

    3)That it is fighting against forces of ‘darkness’ and ‘religous’ tyranny.

    All pretty spurious claims that require no analsis, apparently.

    Yhamir

    Yhamir, are you Muslim? Are you a British citizen? If not, what are you?

    Just curious, since it has implications based upon the fact that you require evidence for 1 – 3 above.

    Yhamir (and the polling of British Muslims) makes one think that bringing democracy to the Middle East is, indeed, a project doomed to failure. The leftist plan of submission (or pretending that there isn’t a problem with Islam) isn’t exactly attractive, and that leaves the sword as the only option I can see.

  31. Don wrote: Yhamir (and the polling of British Muslims) makes one think that bringing democracy to the Middle East is, indeed, a project doomed to failure.

    What Don is really saying is that he and people like him won’t be happy just with democratization. To satisfy him, the people he like also have to win!

    But that’s not how democracy works. You have to accept the results of democracy. If the side you don’t like wins in democratic elections, you have to accept it.

    Democracy did come to the middle east — Gaza and West Bank had elections that the international observers certified as free and fair. But Hamas won. Oops! So Israel started economically squeezing the Occupied Territories relentlessly, holding up all transfer of funds. Predictably, Hamas retaliated.

    Lebanon did have free and fair elections. But guess what, Hezbollah was part of the ruling coalition that came to power democratically. After Israeli tanks started attacking Gaza, naturally Hezbollah also reacted.

    You can’t have democratic elections, and then start bashing the winners. It leads to bad things. You have to learn to accept the results of democracy, in order for it to work.

  32. “After Israeli tanks started attacking Gaza, naturally Hezbollah also reacted. ”

    Naturally. After a fabricated “attack”, a completely unrelated group in a completely different country (or are we now admitting that Hizb’allah and Hamas have the same goals- contrary to previous leftist trolls’ posts) decides to kill and kidnap Israeli soldiers and rain rockets down on Israel, plunging innocent civilians on both sides into an unwanted war.

    Naturally.

  33. Rabbit, in light of hamas being a bona-fide terrorist organization, you certainly can’t expect the same level of economic and political consideration from the US and Israel and other nations that neutral and friendly elected groups would get, do you? How odd of you to think so and in light of gun battles between fatah and hamas men, I wonder how free and fair the elections really were. It is rather convenient of you to fall back on the old the-Israelis-started-it gambit when dealing with Israel’s right to exist. Fair and equitable treatment for known terrorists who supposedly were elcted via deomocratic process? HA!

  34. Don wrote:

    “Just curious, since it has implications based upon the fact that you require evidence for 1 – 3 above.”

    Actually, my ethnic/religous/nationalistic profile doesn’t have any implications at all to questions 1-3.

    They are serious questions that require serious evidence.

    Which, tellingly, no one has offered any as such.

    They are subjective assertions, not facts.

    And fairly inaccurated assertions at that.

    I’m have no particular bias, Don. I’m just interested in truth and reasoned argument.

    Give it a try….

  35. I’m have no particular bias, Don. I’m just interested in truth and reasoned argument.”

    Heh.

    Ha-ha.

    Hah-heh-hah-hah-heh-hahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahhah!

  36. yhamir:

    1. Hizb’allah is a proxy of and funded by Iran. The president of Iran has been quoted as saying that “Israel should be wiped from the map.” Hizb’allah is firing thousands of rockets at Israel. Iran is actively seeking nuclear weapons. The implication is that Israel is engaged in fighting Iran (by proxy) now, and cannot wait until Iran acquires nukes. Ergo, fighting for its life.

    2. “The West” embodies the principles of classical liberalism: individual freedom, property rights, democracy, the notion that the individual is more important than the state. Israel fights against those who believe in submission to an all-powerful god, submission to a stifling theology, and the notion that the state (god) is more important than the individual. Ergo, Israel is fighting (by proxy) for “The West.”

    3. As for “religious tyranny”, see above, and add female circumcision, women as property, laws that dictate pretty much everything that someone does in everyday life. You are aware of the Saudi version of “Dear Abby”, an imam that advises people on “religious” matters like what kind of laundry detergent to use?

    Enough evidence for you? It is for me.

  37. You can’t have democratic elections, and then start bashing the winners. It leads to bad things. You have to learn to accept the results of democracy, in order for it to work.
    Dave the Rabbit

    The flip side of that is that if the people of a nation democratically elect genocidal thugs to govern their nation, then the people will have to bear the consequences of their poor judgement.

  38. “You can’t have democratic elections, and then start bashing the winners. It leads to bad things.”

    Like WWII and the end of the Nazi Holocaust. After all, Hitler was democratically elected by the majority of the people of Germany.

    I can not only bash the winners of democratic elections, I can bash the whole motherfucking country of civilians that elected them.

    Just following in the footsteps of Winston Churchill and FDR, you know.

  39. “I can not only bash the winners of democratic elections, I can bash the whole motherfucking country of civilians that elected them.”

    Tatter – watch the language mate.

    And please – you couldn’t bash a paper bag with a mallet you twat – simmer down tough guy….

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