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Trump, Congress, and Turkey — 59 Comments

  1. ABC News Broadcasts Fake Syria Bombing Video That’s Actually From a Kentucky Military Show in 2017
    https://gizmodo.com/abc-news-broadcasts-fake-syria-bombing-video-thats-actu-1839028685

    “This video, right here, appearing to show Turkey’s military bombing Kurd civilians in a Syrian border town,” Llamas said on the October 13 broadcast as the video played.

    -=-=-=-=-

    “This video, obtained by ABC News, appears to show the fury of the Turkish attack on the border town of Tal Abyad two nights ago,” Panell said during the Sunday broadcast.

    -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

    ABC News Issues Correction after Airing Kentucky Gun Range Footage During ‘Slaughter In Syria’ Segment
    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/abc-news-issues-correction-after-airing-kentucky-gun-range-footage-during-syria-segment/

    ABC News apologizes for airing fake Syria bombing footage
    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/14/abc-news-apologizes-for-airing-fake-syria-bombing-/

  2. This just in: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) on Monday announced that she and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) agreed to “a bipartisan, bicameral joint resolution to overturn the President’s dangerous decision in Syria immediately.”
    Hoping Trump will work with Congress on this. Would be a good time to reach across the aisles.

  3. “resolution”.

    Meaningless in Syria, not to mention in Turkey.

    Graham. What a dope!

    (I should add, J.E. Dyer is certainly on point.)

  4. It is my understanding that Trump pulled out 50+ troops from the area in northern Syria. What the big deal is escapes me. The Kurds will take care of themselves. The ME is a hotbed of tribal warfare. Nothing we could do will ever change that.

    Graham is being foolish if he thinks Pelosi cares about a “bi-partisan” approach. This nothing more that taking a poke at djt.

  5. Syria is a can of worms, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran all playing with Assad.

    The PKK, a rebellious, Turkish Kurd organization which wants to create a Kurdistan in Eastern Turkey to merge with the Kurds in NW Iraq and create a true Kurdish homeland, has been declared “terrorist” by the USA to what useful purpose? The PKK has done zero harm to the USA. To assist Erdogan and Turkey against the PKK? Why? Because the PKK is Marxist? The Turks have killed about 40,000 of their own fellow (Kurdish) civilian citizens.

    Erdogan is one of the filthiest state leaders on the planet. Turkey should not be a NATO member, since the USSR evaporated a generation ago. We should have as little to do with Turkey as possible. Erdogan is a Putin ally, for heaven’s sake!

    I am heartened by today’s news that Trump is imposing sanctions on Turkey.

  6. True, 50 US special forces personnel were removed from the Syria-Turkish border. But more will be leaving. About 1,000 troops will leave the area “as safely and quickly as possible,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CBS’ “Face the Nation” in an interview Sunday.
    Esper said the troops remaining in the country were caught between Turkish forces and the SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces]. “And so… we have American forces likely caught between two opposing advancing armies, and it’s a very untenable situation,”
    It seems like the best options were to either commit more troops or leave.

  7. I’m old enough to remember that pulling troops out of harm’s way was a thing to be celebrated.

    Regarding the “Kurds” — there is no unified Kurdish identity. There are, rather, Kurdish identities. The Kurds of Iraq, for instance, are quite different from the Kurds in Syria — they don’t even speak the same dialect of Kurdish. This situation is far more nuanced than the talking points parroted by talking heads and NeverTrumpers.

  8. I am no military expert, but it seems to me that if 1,050 troops were critical to the balance of power in northern Syria, that was a very unstable situation to begin with.

  9. General Mathis came out against pulling our troops out of the region as well as it will result in the resurgence of ISIS, and just like that, Trump supporters who once respected the General and welcomed him aboard the Trump administration with glowing admiration now regard him as a trigger happy nutcase in favor of perpetual war.
    Resurgence indeed. What could that doddering old fool know that the great Donald Trump does not?

  10. Mike Doran in a brief interview on FoxBusiness with a more synoptic view than the current pro-YPG anti-Turk D.C. consensus against the President would have us consider.

    To boil down (far too much) I gist: Does the YPG control the Bosporus, the Dardanelles?

    Any chance they will? No?

    Right! They’re puny Marxist terrorist punks, happy to be in league with Iran, the Russians, and Assad. We don’t need them — never did, which is why Obama allied us with them.

    Remember him? He never liked you. He sought to fuck you at every turn. Still does.

  11. Here’s the rub Harry: that doddering old fool isn’t President and Commander-in-Chief. Trump is. His job is to ask “how high?” when Trump says “jump.” That’s the way it is.

  12. Deer Congress,

    You can force the issue, by voting for a declaration of war. Against Turkey, or Assad, or if you’re feeling really ambitious, Turkey, Assad and Russia! What, no?

    Pussies. Also, if Congress were to vote for war, what would happen if the President, as CiC, refused to prosecute the war?

  13. Right Micheal, what could Mathis experience amount to anyway?

    He’s been out of office how long? what, precisely, does he know about the situation on the ground? now, today? what he reads in the WaPo? or sees on ABC? what his buddies in the E Ring of the Pentagon tell him?

  14. Yeah, them guys in the E ring of the Pentagon are certainly not to be trusted and Mathis being out of his military job for far less time than he’s been in the job certainly couldnt amount to nothing.

  15. But if he had only listened to advice Turkey’s aggression wouldnt have happened to start with. Do you begin to see why pulling out troops was an idiotic idea? Or is this more 3D chess?

  16. Harry,

    Was it blind worship of Trump here in the comments, again, of this post that triggered this recent barrage? Already 4 in 18 or so.

    Are you going to whine when people commence to arguing with you?

    My offer of an Orange Man Neutrality Treaty still stands.

  17. In his book “The Clash of Civilizations”, Samuel P. Huntington devoted attention to Islam and noted Islam’s bloody borders.

    “Islam’s borders are bloody and so are its innards. The fundamental problem for the West is not Islamic fundamentalism. It is Islam, a different civilisation whose people are convinced of the superiority of their culture and are obsessed with the inferiority of their power.”

    The current violence between the Turks and the Kurds is just part of the nature of Islamic culture. We should stay out of it. Trump’s policy to greatly expand US oil production makes us immune to the oil ticks of the Middle East and their backwards culture. If anyone should intervene, because their oil supplies are affected, it should be the EU, which however has emasculated itself and chosen to pursue idiocy like global warming instead.

  18. I dont know if I recall your Orange Man Neutrality Treaty. I may not have seen it.
    As for your first question: It certainly looked like this was heading in the direction of blind support and the replies concerning Gen Mathis definitely seemed to go off in that direction. I was wondering how many others would chime in dismissing Mathis’s opinion.
    Was I going to whine over arguments? Naver have. But when those “arguments” turn into ad homs, I have no problem with calling them out. After all, we’re supposed to be the reasonable ones right?

  19. Part 2. The second reason Trump should stay away is political. Should he intervene, the minute things look dicey, the Dems will turn around and attack him, despite them being “in favor” of him doing something now. War, being by its nature unpredictable, it’s guaranteed that something will go wrong and give the Dems yet another reason to scream “impeach him”. Since the only truth for the Dems is the power of their party, the gross contradiction won’t bother them in the least.

  20. American General Explains Rebranding the YPG Away From the PKK: YouTube, Doesn’t fool anybody in the region. [2:06]

    Especially not the Turks.

    Americans? Well yeah, that was Obama’s whole deal, fooling Americans.

  21. I look forward to Pelosi and Graham supporting a Declaration of War.
    With the US, under Trump, going for unconditional surrender.
    Ha – no holding breath.

    Bad stuff by bad people, especially bad ruthless Muslims, is going to happen in the Mid East. With or without small numbers of US troops.

    Trump says his hardest job is to tell the parents of soldiers that their son has been killed in combat. Pulling back in Syria seems like a reasonable way to reduce that.

    Mattis was great for fighting ISIS and winning, like Powell was for fighting Saddam in 1991. But the USA doesn’t generally know how to do nation building, and it’s been US soldier life expensive to learn that we’re not good at it.

    Without a cooperative Congress to support winning a killing war, Trump is smart to fight a trade / economic war, instead.

    I also support Kurdish independence, in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and especially Turkey. Trump should be pushing for a referendum in South East Turkey by the Kurds if they want to secede, like the Scottish referendum (which failed). This might need to wait until Turkey’s anti-democratic, anti-human rights actions are brought up as violations of NATO conduct. And thus, reason for NATO to expel Turkey.

    Better an honest enemy than a dishonest pretend-ally.

    Many Kurds would want to be honest allies — but many would only be pretend.

  22. The less we have to do with US soldiers defending the indefensible in the tribal Islamic world the better. “Kurds,” whichever particular branch they might be, have often taken to killing each other. They will fight & kill & die & then 100 years from now do it all over again.

    We have only conditional allies in that region…none worth declaring war over until our direct interests are threatened AND we are willing to kill a whole bunch of folks without stopping to ask congress’ permission or forgiveness.
    Until then: Not. Our. Fight.

  23. The Dems have been longing to activate the antiwar movement and have large numbers of people out in the street vs Trump.

  24. Harry said:

    “As for your first question: It certainly looked like this was heading in the direction of blind support and the replies concerning Gen Mathis definitely seemed to go off in that direction. I was wondering how many others would chime in dismissing Mathis’s opinion.”

    Ah. So, it was merely preemptive.

    “But when those “arguments” turn into ad homs, I have no problem with calling them out. After all, we’re supposed to be the reasonable ones right?”

    Why the sneer quotes? Argumentum ad hominem is still an argument. Its a fallacy, sure. But its still an argument. And the Fallacy fallacy tells us that not every logically flawed argument is wrong.

    “Was I going to whine over arguments? Naver(sic) have.”

    Haha! You’re on fire tonight Harry. I needed a good laugh.

  25. As far as Turkey is concerned (or any foreign country for that matter), my stomach for interventionism is gone.

    Pull out of every country. Bring them all home. The US faces an existential crisis and its got nothing to do with Turkey and Kurds and ISIS. Or Europe. Or Asia.* It’s time to turtle up, defend our own borders and worry about our own people’s lives.

    I’m through spending American blood on foreign soil, in foreign circuses.

    *That’s not to say those aren’t threats to us in the future. But we stand a better chance of defeating them in the future if we aren’t spread as thin as we are right now while we watch the culture that made us great die back home.

  26. Pull out of every country. Bring them all home. The US faces an existential crisis and its got nothing to do with Turkey and Kurds and ISIS. Or Europe. Or Asia.* It’s time to turtle up, defend our own borders and worry about our own people’s lives.

    I’m through spending American blood on foreign soil, in foreign circuses.

    Fractal Rabbit: That’s pretty much where I am. If I had known how the Iraq War would turn out, I wouldn’t have supported it.

    I was for exiting Afghanistan right after Obama was elected and I saw how he was going to short-change the war so we couldn’t win (assuming we could) but he wouldn’t be blamed for losing while our boys kept dying.

    But history is not a book when you are living it. You can’t skip to the end of the chapter to see what will happen.

    But you can make a decent guess based on the past if you pay attention.

    Any Republican President, but especially this Republican President, can expect the Democrats to use military action against POTUS.

    Also, the rest of the world is as likely to turn against us as well. Which seems short-sighted on their part — the US is most self-reliant country in the world, as well as the most powerful (for now at least) — so it would seem they have more to lose.

    But “if you give a mouse a cookie…”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ld5Ro8Y0EUQ

  27. Pull out of every country. Bring them all home.

    One thing we don’t need is foreign policy according to shtick. About 15% of our military manpower is stationed abroad. The share in problem countries or in staging areas proximate to problem countries is 2.7%. The ratio of military spending to gross domestic product is the lowest it has been since 1940.

  28. You can not ‘win` unless you fight total war, period. Anything less is bound to lead to unintended consequences. Either turn the rubble into dust and demand unconditional surrender, or stay at home.

    Why are we spending billions each year defending Europe when the EU willfully refuses to defend themselves? Why defend South East Asia when they spend a tiny fraction of their GDP to defend themselves?

    Western Europe, all of NATO, SE Asia are not our allies. If we are attacked, none will come to our air because they lack the ability and they are willing to become colonies of China.

  29. Art Deco,

    I have no problem with spending 10% of gdp on defense. I take issue with spending any percent on those who choose less than that on their own defense.

  30. Art Deco: Well, maybe not “Pull out of every country. Bring them all home.”

    However, not get involved in any new, potentially large military conflicts involving dead Americans, is what I say.

    Especially not in the Middle East. I generally admire the Kurds and wish them well, but “my name is Paul and this is between y’all.”

    Rocks are hard, water is wet and the Middle East is the Middle East.

  31. A fella named Clauswitz once said in olden times that: “War is politics by other means.” He is also reputed to have opined that: ” Without killing there is no war. ”
    A necessary precondition to the use of military force as politics is that there be political will to do the killing. There is absolutely no political will in the American public to do more killing in the Middle East. The Turks know this. President Trump knows this. Given this state of affairs what would the critics of the president’s withdrawal of the few American troops along the Turkish border with Syria–a fantasy trip wire–propose as an alternative? War with Turkey? When there is zero popular support for such a war among the American people?
    If so, what body count of dead and wounded American troops would President Trump’s critics deem acceptable to protect the Syrian territory now occupied by the Kurds? Come on. Spill it. This old ‘Nam guy would like to know.

  32. The new website, “Spiked,” offering a pro-Brexit POV and is generally refreshing, put up this post tonight:

    The barbarism of America First
    As the Kurds have discovered, Trump’s foreign policy is chaotic and lethal.

    Because that is the grisly truth about Trump’s decision to leave the Kurds’ fate in the hands of the Turkish military. He has not adhered to some anti-interventionist creed or put an end to ‘these endless wars’. He has not not intervened. Rather, he has intervened on behalf of Turkey. He has allied the US with Turkey, NATO partner and foreign invading force. And in doing so, he has further implicated the US in the thoroughly internationalised conflict now being waged in Syria, between Iran, Russia and the Syrian government on one side, and Turkey and assorted Islamist militias on the other

    Few would disagree that the US needs to extricate itself from Middle Eastern conflicts. So withdrawing troops makes sense. But it should have been a carefully thought-through negotiated withdrawal, drawn up according to a clear strategy. Above all, it should have been done on Syrians’ and Kurds’ terms. It is their land and lives at stake. But Trump and the US haven’t done that. They have withdrawn on Turkey’s terms, according to Turkey’s interests.

    Trump can dress up the most catastrophic mistake of his foreign policy so far. But it can’t hide the truth of what is a barbaric testament to the implosion of US foreign-policymaking.

    –Tim Black
    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/10/15/the-barbarism-of-america-first/

    I get what Black is saying and sympathize, but I fear neo’s link is correct. Trump doesn’t get to choose between the best choice and a bad choice, but between worse and even worse.

    I don’t know if Trump, left to his ‘druthers, would like to stand with the Kurds against Turkey. But I don’t think it matters. If Trump takes a major military position, you’ve got to know the Democrats will sabotage it to make him look bad because that’s all they are about now.

    The Kurds will be left in the lurch either way, only Trump’s way there will be fewer American dead and his administration will live to fight yet another day against the Democrats.

    If Spiked thinks the Democrats give a damn about the Kurds, Spiked is sorely mistaken.

  33. Fractal Rabbit: “Why the sneer quotes? Argumentum ad hominem is still an argument. Its a fallacy, sure. But its still an argument. And the Fallacy fallacy tells us that not every logically flawed argument is wrong.”

    I guess thats fair right? Questioning the genius of Donald Trump and the seemingly slavish devotion to all things Trump certainly deserves personal ad homs. Nope, no blind loyalty to the king on this blog.

  34. Nope, no blind loyalty to the king on this blog.

    Harry: You might want to sit back and listen a while, if that’s your idea of what this blog is about.

  35. This is a complaint about President Trump’s administrative style which sits wrong with Jim Geraghty.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/youre-supposed-to-completely-blindside-the-enemy-not-the-pentagon/

    You can read it for yourself; the headline is fairly inclusive.
    What Jim does not mention is that any discussion of a plan for what to do in Syria — pro or con a withdrawal — would have been on the front pages of NYT or WaPo the next day, due to the fretting of some concerned whistleblower.

    Trump did blindside the enemy.

    I have been partial to the views of J. E. Dyer and others who don’t see any value in keeping a miniscule troop presence in Syria to protect the Kurds (there aren’t enough to do that) and who have a realistic appraisal of the Syrian Kurds in particular as allies-of-convenience rather than of principle.

    As for Harry’s lament “But if he had only listened to advice Turkey’s aggression wouldnt have happened to start with.”
    Perhaps Trump was looking for an excuse to drop sanctions on Turkey, which he has hitherto not had, and which he clearly warned would happen.

  36. From the American Conservative article linked by Michael back upthread a ways:

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-kurds-and-the-sticky-wicket-of-foreign-entanglements/

    Kurds constitute the largest ethnic population in the world without an independent homeland. The victorious World War I allies broke their promise to establish such a homeland, and instead divided the Kurds among Turkey (the remnant of the defeated Ottoman Empire), Iran, and the newly minted countries of Iraq and Syria. The Kurds have sought to reverse that outcome throughout the succeeding decades.

    Seems to me a lot of problems in the world today trace back to broken promises after WWI.
    Plus the ones after WWII.
    And Vietnam.
    And Gulf War I.

    And it seems to me that most of the breaking was done by Democrats.

  37. huxley on October 15, 2019 at 12:42 am said:

    If Spiked thinks the Democrats give a damn about the Kurds, Spiked is sorely mistaken.
    * * *
    Spiked got the memo.
    Despite some quasi-liberty productions, Spiked! leans left in the main.

  38. huxley on October 14, 2019 at 9:28 pm said:

    But history is not a book when you are living it. You can’t skip to the end of the chapter to see what will happen.

    But you can make a decent guess based on the past if you pay attention.

    Any Republican President, but especially this Republican President, can expect the Democrats to use military action against POTUS.

    Also, the rest of the world is as likely to turn against us as well.
    * * *
    Not likely: guaranteed.
    Democrats are always for a war before they are against it.

  39. Chuck on October 14, 2019 at 7:21 pm said:
    If I had to guess, I would guess that things will settle out pretty quickly after the initial land grabs by the various sides. For a different take on the Kurds: Our Gallant Allies, the Kurds (and other fairy tales) is a useful alternative view. Keeping our involvement limited to immediate goals, like ISIS, seems a good idea to me.
    * * *
    Tom Kratman’s Facebook post is certainly a different POV than we get in the press, isn’t it?
    Perhaps we should listen more to the troops and less to the generals, from time to time.
    We were supposed to have learned that from WWI.

  40. Gen. Mattis (not Mathis) notwithstanding, Trump’s move will reduce US deaths.

    See Trump’s statement:
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183833640507269120

    I’ve heard that Trump is imposing tariffs on Turkey. I’m now thinking Trump did well in pulling out US troops, letting Erdogan over-extend himself, and giving Trump the excuse of Turkey’s attack to put on tough sanctions.

    Punishing other countries by imposing tariffs might well be a better way to negotiate peace, in most cases, than war and death and killing.

    Since America allowed the Dems and the N. Viet commies to win the peace in Vietnam, the US hasn’t been too good on military occupations. Not in Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, Africa (Kenya & Somalia & not Rwanda), nor the Middle East.

    Variable trade sanctions might well be better than variable troop deployments.

  41. What nobody will admit is that there was no way to stop Erdogan from attacking without creating a much larger problem. Trump is doing the only thing possible under the circumstances.

    It is also playing into his hands as Erdogan becomes the object of derision by all sides. If Trump had just opposed Erdogan the Democrats would be siding with him against Trump. As it is Ergodan is probably on his way out, which is good,

    The Syrian Kurds are now actually talking with Syria, which they were not doing while they thought we would perform miracles on their behalf. The Syrian Kurds are a disorganized group of victims. They have no leadership that can commit to anything beyond the next fight and have it come to pass. They need peace with Syria and are now in position to side with them against the Turks.

    Kurt Schlichter had a worthwhile comment: If your exit criteria for closing out some overseas adventure is “We can leave when things are stable” in a place that hasn’t been stable in 5000 years, you are advocating for “endless war.”

    When the dust settles Trump will have won again.

  42. Harry said:

    “I guess thats (sic) fair right? Questioning the genius of Donald Trump and the seemingly slavish devotion to all things Trump certainly deserves personal ad homs. Nope, no blind loyalty to the king on this blog.”

    And you wonder why you get piled on with ‘ad homs’? Which by the way, no one has leveled at you yet in this post. Have you actually even read the discussions on this post?

    Your monomania is fascinating, Harry.

  43. Art Deco said:

    “One thing we don’t need is foreign policy according to shtick.”

    Unless it’s a big shtick!

    I kid, I kid!

    You can call it a shtick all you want Art. Its a clever turn of phrase, and I’m always a fan of such things. But I don’t mean it to be humorous hyperbole or clever or attention grabbing. I save that crap for the likes of Harry and Artfldgr.

    It is my sincere belief based on our largely failed history of interventionism in the late 20th and 21st centuries. I have evolved on this over the years quite a bit. Ten years ago, I would have been all in on staying to help the Kurds.
    The Cold War is over. A Cold Civil War is cooking along right at home and looks to go hot anytime.

    We can’t afford any more foreign entanglements right now, no matter how we rationalize the need to be there and help out.

    I should add, here in the ‘edit’ function, I am not specifically mentioning the US Navy and the protection of our ships and trade on the seas. I should have been more specific from the get-go.

  44. Trump has little choice in Syria and Rand Paul, who is growing in my estimation, said it pretty well Sunday while Chuck Todd kept trying to interrupt him. The 50 troops and a thousand more are there as “trip wires” and that has no military value. Does anyone want war with Turkey ? Erdogan has a failing economy and just lost an election. He has been an Islamist since entering politics.

    Trump haters like Harry will never agree with anything he does. There is no way Pelosi would cooperate with Trump. There are major domestic bills in the House that Democrats will not vote on because “We can’t gibve Triump a victory.”

  45. For those that want my analysis, they can read this.

    https://grimbeorn.blogspot.com/2019/10/for-whom-bell-tolls.html

    https://grimbeorn.blogspot.com/2019/10/permanent-coup.html

    Nope, no blind loyalty to the king on this blog.

    Some are loyal, some are more independent.

    Huxley and Ymar tend to be more of the outliers. Huxley is an outlier on the lefter side of things. While I am on the Right. On the right pf parker, Neo, everybody else, and Trum included. I am to the right… of the Alt Right even. I am so far right in fact, that Trum supporters sometimes think I am a Leftist opposed to Trum.

    We are the Right hand path: thus sayrth the Divine Counsel of Elohim, under the Most High, Almighty.

  46. Fractal Rabbit:

    Perhaps Harry just posts the same comments on many blogs, and if the shoe doesn’t fit, no biggee to him.

  47. Neo,

    “Perhaps Harry just posts the same comments on many blogs, and if the shoe doesn’t fit, no biggee to him.”

    That’s why I have often wondered, and mentioned it here at your blog, if he’s just another paid troll. I do go back and forth, leaning one way then another. He’s not quite so obvious as manju, if a troll he is.

  48. I think it is clear that Trump is always in a no-win situation with the Democrat-Media complex. They don’t even pretend they aren’t lying anymore.

    https://libertyunyielding.com/2019/10/15/syria-trump-sends-delegation-to-negotiate-abc-gives-us-turkish-attack-filmed-in-kentuck

    t’s been a rough week for analysis, with most of the commentary in knee-jerk mode. This isn’t alleviated at all by so much of the “straight news” coverage being in “Pallywood and Exaggeration: The Movie” mode. What can you do. Here we are.

    I pause only to note that if you pointed out, a week ago, the likelihood that some of the Kurds would want to ensure survival by looking for an accord with Russia and Assad, your perspective is being vindicated.

    Other than that, there’s little real-world vindication for all the various dire or sunny predictions. Unless he has a death wish, Erdogan is basically stopped now. See paragraph two, above. Pushback with Russia behind it means Erdogan’s forces start taking casualties if he keeps pushing further in a wholly discretionary campaign. This is a fight he doesn’t, strictly speaking, have to be waging. He’s not fighting for Turkey’s survival; he’s fighting to drive a stake in Syria, in part so that Syria won’t end up being weaponized against him.

    If Syria is to be weaponized – and if Erdogan has anything to say about it, Syria will be, somewhere in a hazy future – it will be on Neo-Ottoman terms, not Russia’s or Iran’s. That’s Erdogan’s position. But weaponizations can be delayed until timing is propitious. Pick a century since 1453, and Ottoman Turkey, Russia, and Persia have been out in force shooting at each other, trying to get that straightened out. Syria and Iraq have hosted their battles for quite a long time.

    As the week swings into gear, just a couple of observations. First, Trump is sending a “high-level” negotiating team to Turkey to, we are told, negotiate a ceasefire. A couple of hours before that, sanctions and punitive bilateral measures against Turkey were announced, including a 50% tariff increase and a halt to trade deal negotiations.

    Let us all observe a solemn two-minute hate for the annoyance of this situation not fitting any of our preconceptions. I’m the first to say it doesn’t fit mine. That also puts me first in line to say that I can’t predict how it’s going to go.

    What Trump has done here is somehow get to a situation he can at least try to negotiate on the terms he is familiar with. Instead of having the military reality on the ground dictate his relative negotiating strength, he has removed that as a constraint on him. Ten days ago, there were a few dozen American soldiers in a position of exceptional vulnerability on the Syrian border. Now there aren’t. Moreover, Russia, Assad, and the Syrian Kurds are suddenly in league against Turkey instead of jockeying against each other, and the hand of Iran in what’s going on is at the moment a secondary and compromised one at best.

    I doubt the economic pressure Trump proposes to bring on Turkey would be decisive, if it were applied by itself. But the other actors in the drama – Russia and Assad, now partnering with Kurds – are setting up a juncture at which the sanctions could potentially make the outcome of negotiations more fruitful. All the parties want something out of a deal, and there’s still no nation other than the United States that could hope to maneuver everyone into getting something. It has the makings of a Trump situation being set on a table, with place cards.

    I leave it to readers to decide if Trump cleverly foresaw all this. I have no strong argument either way. As to what outcome it will produce, all we can do is wait and see.

    If we continue to accept the “mainstream” media as a good-faith actor, we condemn ourselves to believing misrepresentations, absurd exaggerations, and endlessly repeated narrative points, rather than simple facts. I’ve never seen such an unseemly caterwauling as the one set up over the situation in Syria. I don’t even agree with what Trump did, and certainly not with the way he did it, and yet it’s crystal clear that the media have been trying to sell us a bill of goods about Trump’s move and the consequences ever since.

    The TDS-addled seem content to duel endlessly over biased media coverage. But the biased media coverage puts severe limits on the quality of public dialogue the president and his top officials can count on. The bias has become decisively toxic, in fact, to the point that it does no good for any of us to even talk to each other. Nor do we learn facts from perusing the media’s offerings.

    Instead, we get YouTube video footage from a gun range in Kentucky, edited so the American spectators aren’t visible, being presented by ABC as video of “Slaughter in Syria.” There’s no living that down. They had to go twice around the barn and stop for drinks along the way to come up with that one; you don’t just accidentally pull a video off YouTube, edit out the Yankee audience, and then use it to illustrate combat in Syria.

  49. “I leave it to readers to decide if Trump cleverly foresaw all this. I have no strong argument either way.” – Dyer

    From Julie’s CTH link:
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/14/trumps-syrian-maneuver-works-president-erdogan-asks-for-negotiations-with-kurds-insyria/

    President Trump has played this out perfectly. By isolating Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and effectively leaving him naked to an alliance of his enemies, Erdogan is now urgently asking for the U.S. to mediate peace negotiations with Kurdish forces.

    This request happens immediately after President Trump signed an executive order [See Here] triggering the sanction authority of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Erdogan called the White House requesting an urgent phone call with President Trump.

    After President Trump talked to Kurdish General Mazloum Kobani Abdi, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, President Trump then discussed the options available to President Erdogan. As a result of that conversation, Erdogan requested the U.S. mediate negotiations. Vice-President Mike Pence announces he will be traveling to the region with National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien to lead that effort.

    If Trump did not have something like this already in mind when he pulled our “trip wire” forces out of the line of fire, he sure got things going awfully quick with his “chaotic and dysfunctional” administration and “shoot-from-the-hip” style.

    President’s don’t have EOs like that just sitting around in a drawer on the off chance they might be useful someday.
    I’m quite sure it took as long to draft as did the Whistlegate Magnum Opus.

    As long as we are living in the slippery-slope universe Matt Taibbi so clearly described, I would like someone to leak the transcripts of that call, just to see the list of options!

  50. Here’s CTH on the Fake News from ABC, in case you need some more rilin’ up.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/14/abc-news-busted-creating-fake-news-propaganda-surrounding-syrian-conflict/

    Posted on October 14, 2019 by sundance
    Last night and again this morning ABC News aired shocking footage supposedly from the frontline battle between Syrian Kurds and the invading Turkish troops. The report and footage was described in shock-filled breathless language, intended to provoke the audience. ABC News anchor Tom Llamas aired the allegedly shocking footage, claiming it showed a fierce Turkish attack on Kurdish civilians.

    However, there is a very big problem. The footage is 100% fake…. it never happened.

    The footage ABC News used in their broadcast comes from a nighttime machine gun demonstration at the Knob Creek Gun Range in West Point, Kentucky.

    Let’s be clear about this. This is ABC international News using footage from a Kentucky gun exhibition and passing it off as attack footage in Syria. That is not a mistake.

    This production had to pass through several layers of ABC News editorial review prior to broadcast. This is not a simple mistake of the wrong footage…. ABC News was caught purposefully creating “Fake News”.

    Does anyone have a link to the original gun range video so we can see what was doctored?
    And who called them on it to start with?

    Why do they keep thinking no one will notice the fakes?

    I know they count on their willing dupes (I don’t think that’s too strong a word anymore) who will see the original report and never hear about the take-down, but it’s getting hard to keep up the pretense, with anyone paying attention, that they aren’t Fake News .

    I don’t think Matt Taibbi would approve.

  51. What do you think the Turks are going to do in northern Syria? Assimilate with the Kurds? There is bound to be killing, anarchy. What will this lead to?

  52. What do you think the Turks are going to do in northern Syria?

    It seems their aim is to establish a 32km deep buffer zone inside Syria across the extent of the area called Rojava, the YPG/PKK’s coveted “statelet”, and in addition splitting it in two in the north-south direction alongside the Euphrates.

    What will this lead to?

    Too early. Too many players. Too complex. Plus, not everyone of the players is making plain what their aims are (like Pres. Trump, for instance, to say nothing of Putin, Assad, and the Mullahs.)

    So no one knows.

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