Home » Virginia: a tide election?

Comments

Virginia: a tide election? — 12 Comments

  1. Democrats will retake both the house and senate next year should always be the thinking of every republican, republicans are becoming complacent like the democrats in 2016, WAKE THE HELL UP.

  2. Somewhere in the attic of my mind, I recall seeing some analyses that indicate the composition of State legislatures and governorships ebbs and flows without necessarily being tied to national elections, based both on the reluctance of the electorate to grant either party a “permanent” majority and the “degree of separation” between the national Party policies and the State parties.
    I suspect the changes operate much as Neo indicates (*) by a cyclical alternation of drive and complacency, with varying degrees of success.

    Useful data here (but not the studies I was thinking of); however, the relevant tables would have to be pulled out and the national composition data added.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

    *”The second is that the Democrats put out a highly organized drive to do this in yesterday’s election and caught the Republicans of Virginia unprepared and flat-footed. For example, there’s this sort of thing. My guess (and I haven’t followed it closely enough to know) is that the state GOP candidates complacently assumed they were safe when they were not, and didn’t put out the same kind of effort.”

    I suspect the loss of Jon “golden boy” Ossoff in the Georgia election lit a fire under the Virginia party.

    Here’s an old story, but when the Dems organize properly, they run rings around the GOP.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/26/politics/democratic-technology/

  3. Constitutional conservatives are opposed by the GOPe every bit as much as by the democrats.

    The GOPe would be more comfortable with Hillary as President. They mistakenly see her as the lesser threat.

    Too soon to say whether a trend toward restoring democrat majorities is emerging.

  4. Neo, the paragraphs below were written in response to your comment in the previous thread; but, since that is now out of the forum’s consciousness, and my thoughts are so important (to me), I will throw them in here.

    The point is that the demographics in Virginia put the GOP at a significant disadvantage from the beginning. Then there is the Trump factor. He energizes the Democrats; his core do not support traditional GOP candidates; and he may even discourage mainline Republican voters. It all adds up to disaster. It will be interesting to see the turnout..

    Someone above said that the bulk of Republicans hate the GOPe. I simply don’t buy that. There is frustration; and I feel as much as anyone. On the other hand, I think most Republicans understand the complexity of governing with a narrow majority, and know that is compounded by roadblocks set up by a few ideological stone walls and out-sized egos. Not to say that there is not a significant number who buy into Trump’s destructive rhetoric toward the GOPe. (Aside; the term RINO simply makes me grind my teeth, and mutter rude words. Oddly, most who use it proclaim that they cannot stand the GOP.)

    For the most part, I like the policies that Trump is pursuing, and I like his judicial nominees; but, I fear that Trump may ultimately destroy the GOP. If that turns out to be true, then in the long run his Presidency will be a disaster, because the Left will control the country for a very long time. Love it or not, you have to have a viable party to succeed across the political spectrum. Trump needs to reach out and publicly mend fences. He is, after all, the one with the huge megaphone.

  5. Oldflyer Says:
    November 8th, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    For the most part, I like the policies that Trump is pursuing, and I like his judicial nominees; but, I fear that Trump may ultimately destroy the GOP. If that turns out to be true, then in the long run his Presidency will be a disaster, because the Left will control the country for a very long time. Love it or not, you have to have a viable party to succeed across the political spectrum.
    * * *
    Although your fears are not unfounded, they may be similar to those expressed by Whigs at the election of Lincoln (no, Trump is not a Lincoln, but Whigs are like the GOP). Abe had the advantage of a political-party-insurgency that already existed, and Trump does not, but the end of the Republican Party per se is not the end of conservatives-in-parties.

    The Left may control parts of the governing and cultural institutions for a very long time (they already have; see Neo’s post on Robert Frost earlier this week), but they do not and never will control the Country.

  6. GOP congress needs to get its act together. Repeal ocare and require competition to lower costs, simplify the tax code and abolish corporate and estate taxes. Encourage corporations to bring capital back home tax free. The djt administration needs to open an investigations into uranium one, Comey-Lynch shenanigans, fast and furious, and Bengahzi. Damn the torpedoes because the window is closing.

  7. parker,

    I suspect that the GOPe knows exactly what they’re doing. I see their inaction as intentional. Their Big donors are ademantly opposed to the remedies that Constitutional conservatives favor. The GOPe knows that they’re going to take it in the shorts but see it as a necessary set back to regaining control of the party. They figure that without the support of the big donors any third party is doomed to failure and that the base will eventually be forced to return.

  8. I sort of wonder if the ad put out by that Latino group on behalf of Northam had much of an effect on the turnout and results in Va. I know that the DC suburbs in general, both Maryland and Virginia, are home to a lot of immigrants. And I suspect that Trump talk about immigration and travel bans probably turned out a lot of people who badly wanted to vote against anyone in the same party.

    I can only speak anecdotally, but my boyfriend is a 55 year old Moroccan (Muslim) and he hates and fears Trump more than I think is rational. He liked him well enough when he was talking about Mexican immigrants, but when he started talking about Muslims, things changed. I don’t think Trump could do or say anything that would change his opinion at this point.

    From my standpoint, I totally understand why my boyfriend and other immigrants feared Trump and didn’t vote for him. Now that he’s in office though, I think those fears are largely unfounded. Trump has turned out to be far less authoritarian than I thought he would be. And I very much like the fact that he’s rolling back some of what Obama did with his pen and phone. I don’t particularly like the constant tweeting (especially when he is complaining about people) and I wish he had more discipline, but I don’t think he’s the devil that the left portrays him to be. Too bad that reality doesn’t matter. The left has their narrative and that’s pretty much all that will be reported.

  9. I live in a very red part of very red Alabama. The state of course went heavily for Trump. You may have heard about our senatorial election that’s in progress. In the Republican primary Trump supported the loser against Roy Moore, a former state Supreme Court justice and about as hard-core religious right as you can get. Moore is a fanatic (and I say this as a conservative Christian myself) and something of a flake who is regarded by a whole lot of people as an embarrassment and a danger. Even though he was opposed by Trump he made a somewhat credible case that he was more Trumpian than his opponent.

    So now in the election Moore is facing a very credible and appealing non-crazy Democrat, Doug Jones. I don’t know what the polls are saying now but it’s obvious that Moore is driving a lot of people into voting for the Democrat. I’d be considering it myself if Jones were not committed to supporting his party’s hard line on various social issues–basically if it weren’t for the Supreme Court.

    To judge by the yard sign factor, Moore is losing. The ratio of Jones to Moore yard signs in my area is probably 15 to 1, maybe 20. Truth is I rarely see a Moore sign, but Jones signs are pretty common.

    All by way of saying yes, Trumpian politics may indeed be seriously damaging the Republican Party. Moore is something of a fluke, granted, but he appeals to Trump’s more fervent supporters, and scares the same people Trump does. Yes, the state went for Trump, but Doug Jones is not Hillary.

  10. The national media was all about pushing the idea that this was a big rebuke for Trump and his policies. I think that local factors and the relative weakness of that state’s Republican candidates were more important.

    Up here in Maine, the voters approved Medicaid expansion by referendum, which Governor LePage had vetoed something like five times already. That made the national news, with all the usual suspects cheering it on. Good luck with that one, since there’s no money for it, and taxes are high relative to other states (including Massachusetts). At least that idiotic idea for a casino in York County was overwhelmingly defeated.

  11. Old Flyer sums it very well and without any negative emotional content. Trump needs to reach out and publicly mend fences. The Bannon wing of the party doesn’t want that. They want the so-called GOPe out even if it means the destruction of the Republican Party.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

HTML tags allowed in your comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>