Obama’s chances in 2012
Here’s more about a topic we’ll probably revisit many times to come: what are Obama’s chances in 2012?
The fortuitously-named Sean Trende offers an interesting analysis based on how approval ratings affect elections. But I remain convinced that such speculation is so premature at this point as to be almost meaningless. Too many events—including surprising and unforeseen ones—can occur between now and then. And one all-important question mark is who the Republicans will nominate to run against Obama.
In 1980, we got the best president in my lifetime, Ronald Reagan. We had to go through the worst, Jimmy Carter, to get him.
In some ways Barry may be worse than Jimmy. Too bad, but I just do not see anyone with RR’s stature, abilities and vision on the horizon. I will continue to hope and pray.
Let’s hope Republicans get to pick the candidate, and not the media. Say what you will about her, but Sarah would pull no punches.
Speculation is definitely premature. But I will say BHO laying an egg with the US Chamber of Commerce earlier this week practically guarantees the jobs forecast will remain bleak – and we all know what that means.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com
“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”
While it’s way to early to be making predictions, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the eventual Republican nominee will not be someone who today is among the top four.
Despite his challenge to Ford in 1976, and his terms as governor of California, in 1980 Reagan was an unknown to a large segment of the electorate. Since he wasn’t the establishment candidate, he was something of a dark horse.
The country is awakening to the mess that we all face. Primary voters will not be looking for a status quo candidate. I’m expecting someone either on the periphery or as yet not even on the radar.
It is fascinating that so many people still “believe” in Obama. It must some sort of Cargo cult phenomena. In any event his deficiencies are so great foreign enemies won’t pass up a chance to take advantage of them and investors won’t trust him. Add the crises that occur in every administration and logically he should be sunk. Of course logically he should have never been considered for any public office.
BTW here is an interactive map to play with: http://www.270towin.com/
Using the map I predicted a Republican victory 272 to 268 with PA going Dem and FL going Rep.
At this time, Republicans lack a powerful conservative alternative.
The Dems are guaranteed 45-48% of the vote vis-a-vis the proverbial “yellow dog”, before they even spend a dime.
Where is the 55 year-old Reagan when we need one?
Speculating about 2012 is kinda like our old “Fool v. Knave” chatter. The outcome was that it didn’t matter which, that we just need Baraq and his running dogs outta there ASAP.
Bob:
That’s way too close for comfort.
The question is will Americans have learned their lesson by then. If not, i’d just as soon he stay on. Ronald Reagan himself couldn’t do anything for a nation so refusing to see the problem, much less willing to take steps to fix it.
Repubs need some rust belt states. And Virginia, and Florida…tough.
On the other hand, Obama had maximum enthusiasm last time, and we had McCain (dud). Who is really going to want to vote for Obama this time? Why would anyone vote for more pain? That is what he promises? For more years of national pain.
I don’t see it happening.
The alternative to a Republican President is so undesirable as to be nearly unthinkable – as in, ‘Am I really going to pull the lever for this guy again, knowing what I will get?’
It’s like the Iraq war. In 2005-06 I kept saying we would win because the alternative was unthinkable. 2012 is the domestic version of those options.
I don’t know one person who will even mention Obama out loud anymore – and I knew dozens who couldn’t shut up about him in 2008.
It is fascinating that so many people still “believe” in Obama. It must some sort of Cargo cult phenomena.
I remember thinking the exact same thing about George W. Bush supporters back in 2003.
It’s tough to beat a sitting president.
InTheory, there is no comparison. Obama is not only unique in US history but unique in world history. I just cannot wonder why it is not more obvious? Mass denial?
The GOP may be better off in the long run if it is able to take down the Senate, which it has a good chance of doing, in 2012, and waiting until 2016 to take back the White House. I don’t relish a second term by our current conniver in chief, but I feel that those with the greatest potential and hopefully the brightest futures among current Republicans are those who have caught the nation’s attention most recently – Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio. I’m also high on Virginia governor Bob McDonnell. They all need the time and opportunity imo to prove themselves ready to take the next step.
According to Charles Krauthammer, Obama has a good chance in 2012 if the economy does well.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/12/18/krauthammer_economic_sugar_high_will_help_obama_in_2012.html
I agree. If unemployment goes down below 8% by mid 2012, Obama will be very difficult to beat. This improvement is a very real possibility even though things may get much worse after 2012. The facts of history say that incombents nearly always win if GDP is increasing during election year. I hate to sound cynical, but Americans generally vote with their stomaches and we as a people have a very short memory. Before anyone says that this time is different, please remember, all booms are followed by busts and all recessions have recoveries, and every time there were many who said “this time it’s different”.
If there is any hope, the Republicans need to try a long shot with someone like Jindahl or Rubio. One good way to beat the first African-American president is to come up with the first Asian/Hispanic or Woman candidate. It’s time for the “Hail Mary” pass.
Jimbo Says:
February 9th, 2011 at 7:08 pm
Which is why I keep saying Palin/West 2012.
InTheory, there is no comparison. Obama is not only unique in US history but unique in world history. I just cannot wonder why it is not more obvious? Mass denial?
I hate to tell you this. but Obama’s still quite popular and he is doing a pretty good job.
The irrational hatred of George W. was called BDS.
I see this type of…position isn’t limited to the Democrats.
InTheory:
There is absolutely nothing deranged about hating Communists.
I hate to tell you this in InTheory but Obama’s competence is a subject of derision the world over. He has been recognized publicly as an idiot by many world leaders and in private by all. As for his popularity you must be new here, I mean on earth.
And there is nothing deranged about hating the policies and the lies of Barack Obama. I’m waiting for InTheory to use the race card in 3….2…..1.
But actually, while Obama himself may be popular as a person (His numbers always improve when he shuts up or eats ice cream on a family vacation, etc. as opposed to when he does the actual work of being President) his numbers for approval for how he’s actually doing on jobs/ the economy, etc are terrible. And InTouch, even most Independents don’t think Obama is doing a pretty good job.
But beating Obama will be tough when he has almost the entire MSM kissing up and covering for him, and can-once again- turn off the controls on his internet website and gets lots of illegal donations from places in the Mideast to help him along.
“As for his popularity you must be new here, I mean on earth.” LOL, Bob.
“Which is why I keep saying Palin/West 2012.”
Jim (love the name, BTW), I love that ticket too and think it would wipe out any other candidate(s) the democrats could produce, but Obama will be much more difficult. You can see the media’s narrative on a Palin/West candidacy:
Republicans fight to demote the black man from President to Vice President.
Jimbo & rickl,
You guys propose to beat the PC crowd by out-PCing them? I like those people too, but if you play the game by the enemy’s rules, you won’t win. They crap on pigment and ovaries not to their political liking, quite viciously, as you know; so you propose to persuade the Center via ovaries and pigment of your political liking?
We will be best served by someone who can inspire, by speech, principles and example. The old MLK concept.
Tom Says:
February 9th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Not at all. That is my dream ticket. Race and gender have nothing to do with it.
They are both accomplished people, and are unapologetic patriots. Allen West clearly understands the threat Islam poses to Western civilization, and his overseas military experience negates any charges that Palin is not knowledgeable about foreign policy.
I defy anyone to name better candidates.
I think Jim is absolutely correct about how the Democrats would spin a Palin/West candidacy as much as I like both of them, but then whoever the candidates are will have a hatchet job against them for daring to take down the faux messiah.
But in terms of practical politics, West might just peel away some black voters from Obama.
On the other hand, Palin is considerably less popular among women than she is among men. Even Republican women. That’s a problem.
As Neo-Neocon noted, its a bit early to predict the situation on the ground come mid-2012 and the countdown to the 2012 election. Nonetheless, I’m willing to dance on thin ice. Here is what I predict:
The feds are trying to re-inflate the real estate bubble they helped create. They will fail. (Bad for Obama.)
The stock market bubble the feds are currently pumping up will pop within the next 6 to 12 months and be slow to recover. November, 2012 DJIA at 6,000 anybody? (Bad for Obama.)
Commodity prices will continue to rise. Don’t get fooled by the occasional declines. Look at the grain futures first and the oil secondly. (Bad for Obama.)
Inflation will begin to gallop sometime in the next 12 months. Although food and energy costs are not factored into the feds’ calculation of inflation, rising prices in these two areas hit the average household the hardest. (Bad for Obama.)
Unemployment/under employment over the next 18 months will remain stuck at somewhere around 8-10% and 18-20% respectively. (Bad for Obama.)
It is possible (50:50?) that before November, 2012 the dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency. If that happens the American people are going to suffer. (Very bad for Obama.)
In this fast paced world there are many potential flash points that can suddenly become game changers. I’m sure all who post on this blog can imagine numerous scenarios blossoming into strange, bitter fruit. The current situation in Egypt is an excellent example. Bottom line, I’m bearish and investing accordingly. (Bad for Obama.)
So, despite InTheory’s optimism, it may not manner who the republicans nominate as long as he or she is breathing and can string two sentences together.
BTW, I don’t hate Obama personally although I think he suffers from narcissistic personality disorder and his election was very harmful to the nation. That said I recognize he is my duly elected president and refuse to call him names. He is, like it or not, Mr. President.
Parker wrote “I recognize he is my duly elected president and refuse to call him names”,
I’ll call him names for us both.
VaBob,
You have my permission. 😉
He has been recognized publicly as an idiot by many world leaders and in private by all. As for his popularity you must be new here, I mean on earth.
Since when do Republicans care what foreigners think?
I’d give the Republican candidate a 20% change of beating Obama in 2012 if the Dow doesn’t continue to rise.
InTheory –
We care when they say things we like. Just like Democrats.
Try not to be silly.
As for the 20% claim, I’d put it a little higher, but still under 50%. I’m a pessimist on this (an optimist for you, I guess), but I don’t think the election will hang on the Dow. My view is pretty much exactly the same as Paul Kengor’s, as stated in his recent article, “The 40% President.”
Parker,
Your scenario would definitely lead to Obama’s defeat. It would also lead to a situation that means more financial pain, not to mention possible bankruptcy or default by the U.S. We don’t want to go there.
I have another scenario. The House is reasonably successful in reigning in spending. Obamacare is found unconstitutional or, failing that, is at least defunded. Those two things lead to more confidence in the business community and the economy begins to improve/grow. Tort reform is passed by both houses and vetoed by Obama. The House will propose real reform for Medicare and Social Security, but it will be opposed and possibly never make it through the Senate. The Republicans should constantly be in front of the cameras noting the dems failure to be bipartisan. The independent voters, who will decide the election, see that as another bad decision by Obama and the dems.
The Republican nominees need to emphasize continued fiscal responsibility, less regulation, more oil and gas drilling, fast tracking nuclear power plants, and why those policies will improve the economy and grow jobs. Also, they should push for reform for Medicare and Social Security ala Paul Ryan’s road map.
Even if the economy and jobless rate improves somewhat between now and 11/2012, if the Republicans are smart, they will get the credit for pro business, less government spending policies. Believe me, the independents are watching and will notice. I’m getting anti-Obama jokes from a friend who, two years ago, would not even listen to me about why Obama was a bad choice.
If your scenario comes true I think I will move to…………hmmm, I guess there isn’t anyplace else.
will $5.50 a gallon gas help?
Whoa InTheory, 1:5!?!?
Given all the advantages Obama enjoyed in ’08, he received only (if memory is intact) around 52-3% of the vote. And, despite the MSM attempts to compare Obama to JFK and now Reagan, the new car smell is gone. So let’s think back on the ’08 election realistically. Since you like “bullet points” here we go…
> Obama was the darling (and still is) of a slavish, tingle up the leg media covering up his questionable past and past associates. Now a slim and growing majority sees the real Obama and it ain’t a pretty sight. (Perceived likability will not trump results this time around.)
>He was the beneficiary of a huge, naive youth turn out that is unlikely to support him in such large numbers in 2012. They are, to put it mildly, disillusioned. (Subtract 0.5% of his ’08 vote.)
>He received a boost from a record Afro-American turn out; they may turn out for him again but in not such large numbers. He has disappointed Hispanic voters and he’s given Jewish voters a bitter pill to swallow. (All combined, this will take 1-2% off his ’08 totals.)
>Bush fatigue will not be a factor in 2012. The days of blaming Bush for everything under the sun are over. (Caution, barometric pressure is dropping.)
>The albatross of the economy now hangs around Obama’s neck and all the “shovel ready” jobs “saved and created” are nothing more than a hallucination. (Is the sky getting darker?)
>He is unlikely to face a fumbling, overly polite McCain next time around. This time the gloves will be off. (Can you hear the distant thunder?)
>Despite the attempts of the MSM to wrap the curtain back around the wizard too many now see him as the dogmatic, leftist partisan he really is. The ‘post-partisan’ veneer has rubbed off. (See the lightning streaking across the center-center right sky?)
>SCOTUS strikes down ‘Obamacare” as unconstitutional. (Its your parade, but heavy rain is in the 2012 forecast; better buy that umbrella now.)
Whoa InTheory, 1:5!?!?
I believe a 20% chance of winning is a 1:4 ratio.
I don’t think the people who have an irrational hatred of Obama can honestly estimate his chances of winning.
Right-leaning Rasmussen has Obama’s approval rating at 50% today.
And like it or not, the economy is improving.
formerly Jimmy,
I am not a psychic, but I do believe we are in for a great deal of pain. We are burdened with far too much debt, public and private. Municipalities, states, and DC have been staying afloat on an ocean of easy credit. This has enabled us to keep kicking a can down the road for decades. It seems inevitable to me that we are going to run out of road sooner rather than later.
However, I have confidence in America. I believe we will recover because we are a resilient people. But first we must realize that frugality and hard work are the means to a sustainable prosperity. The borrow against tomorrow mentality that has brought us to this precipice must change. Eventually reality will force that change and the sooner we face reality the better. (Cutting 50-60 billion from an annual multi-trillion dollar budget is not enough.)
InTheory,
20% is 1/5 of a whole which is 100% (5×20 = 100). Or put another way 20% is 20 parts out of a 100 which is equivalent to 1 part out of 5 which is 1:5. Fourth grade math, no wonder you think the real economy is improving.
My unsolicited advice is stay away from the roulette table, the odds are even worse. 😉
Now, I’m off to slumber land.
20% is 1/5 of a whole which is 100% (5é—20 = 100). Or put another way 20% is 20 parts out of a 100 which is equivalent to 1 part out of 5 which is 1:5.
Wrong.
When expressing a ratio like 1:4, the first number is the ratio in fraction form of the second number.
20% is 1/4 of 80%.
It’s kinda tricky, but think about it a while and you’ll get it.
Or, to put it more simply, saying the Republican has a 20% chance of winning is the same as saying they have a 1 in 5 chance of winning and a 4/5 chance of winning, which gives us a ratio of 1/5:4/5. which reduces to a ratio of 1:4.
An even chance, like a coin toss, is expressed as a ratio of 1:1.
Parker is correct about the evolving bad economics that our leaders have brought us to. Bernanke looked scared yesterday when pressed about inflation. We are running out of road to kick this can down to.
To defeat Obama will be I think very hard, because he still is able to project to a large part of the country the illusion that he is in control, mostly because of the MSM. He may be able to forestall the inevitable until 2012, which is what I believe his game is. So yes, he is a knave.
We need a candidate that is not afraid of him or the MSM, and Palin is the only candidate that fits that bill. She frightens him, and you could see it in him immediately after the 2008 convention. He knows it, and so does the MSM, which is why they despise her.
We may not take the WH in 2012, but we must take back the Senate, increase our holdings in the House and continue our gains in the individual states with candidates with a mind to clean our country of the Progressive agenda.
We have yet to see what will happen when a Rep candidate starts taking on Obama personally and reminding voters of his bad judgement. Do you the people will really forget the oil drilling ban, the threat to the coal industry, the voting rights problems and the Ground Zero mosque? The media try to bury these things, but I think a competent candidate can awaken voters’ memories on the campaign trail. And we still have no idea how many Obama screw-ups lie ahead.
InTheory: I don’t care if foreigners think we are stupid uncultured warlike animals. I’ve being hearing these cliches for over 25 years in the European media. I do care if they (including the bad actors of the world) think we are milktoast.
Do we even understand how irrational the political scene has become to be discussing whether a marxist ideologue hell bent on spending us into bankruptcy can be beat in 2012?
Especially if they redefine what it means to be “unemployed” and what “inflation” is.
Go http://www.rossde.com/inflation.html and scroll down to “Manipulating the Indices”, and you’ll see why my father’s axiom that numbers don’t lie, but liars can figure is true.
Money quote: Thus, during soaring prices for food or fuel, only the core CPI (which omits those two items) is mentioned.
See? no inflation.
20% is 1/5 of a whole which is 100% (5é—20 = 100). Or put another way 20% is 20 parts out of a 100 which is equivalent to 1 part out of 5 which is 1:5.
However you want to twist it, Cheesewhiz, I’ll take every bit of your action if you’re saying a Republican won’t get 20% of the popular vote. Go steal some money from your mom’s purse, and let me know what the stakes are.
I’ll take every bit of your action if you’re saying a Republican won’t get 20% of the popular vote.
20% chance of a Republican winning, Casca.
If I had to bet, I’d say Obama will get 54% of the popular vote and mystery Republican gets 45%.
StevenH, I agree. Most people who assume Obama will be re-elected are assuming the things he did will be forgotten or forgiven by 2012. They are also assuming analogies with previous elections and situations. To assume that 4% (remember the split was 47-53, 4% would lose the popular and probably the electoral college for Obama) of the population will vote the way they did in 2008 seems unlikely. I still think a 272-268 outcome very likely.
Never underestimate the amount of people waiting to get their “share” of Obama’s “stash”, states counting on “relief” and Federal workers lining up to become “permanent employees” and out and out marxists who see Obama as “their moment has come”. Add in the next batch of freshly minted college voters that their fool-a** professors will convince them that they are the ones everyone has been waiting for and . . . you get the idea.
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