Home » Open thread 8/2/23

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Open thread 8/2/23 — 47 Comments

  1. There’s certainly a lot of excitement around the recent room temperature and pressure superconducter claims. A team in China has already claimed to have replicated the results by producing some of the LK-99 material. Yeah, it’s China, so take it all with a grain of salt. But if this turns out to be true, it has the potential to be one of the most significant technological advancements in human history.

    Having conduction that’s basically 100% efficient, resistance free with no excess heat generation could solve a lot of problems in electronics and computing. It could potentially even solve power grid issues assuming this material is easy enough to produce in mass volumes, which who knows. It seems as if it uses lead at least.

  2. Today I saw a person commenting on the Fox News website that it was God’s will that the Justice Department abuse it’s authority to punish ” Trump and Trumpers” . The commenter literally admitted that the Justice Department was abusing it’s authority and they were ok with it. There was another comment a day or two ago by a person calling for Trump supporters to be sent to Gulags. ( Never checked if this is the same commentor.) These people call us ” fascist” lack in self awareness. ( And I , like many here, would prefer someone besides Trump as the Republican nominee. )
    On Fox, if there is a Trump article or a religious article, the trolls seem especially vicious. And no, I am not equating Trump to religion. I think he is an unrepentant sinner. But those two categories draw out the trolls especially .

  3. Another open-thread comment about something I read.

    Tyler Cowen, an economist who could be categorized as a state-capacity libertarian, primarily writes for his blog “Marginal Revolution,” but he’s also a frequent contributor to “Bloomburg,” which just published his report on Congress’s UFO hearings.

    Despite my willful ignorance of UFOs, I thought Cowen’s article was worth reading, and a commenter here has stimulated some interest in the topic, so here’s a link: https://archive.is/nMLFa .

  4. ” Deep State” is almost certainly a ” natural ” occurrence in human governance in large and long established systems, especially those with a weak executive position that lacks the power to stamp down the deep state.

  5. Jon,

    Dep state is a natural development of any society which does not stress moral character in its leaders (and people actually). Our founders with foresight made a variety of observations that all made this point.

    The essence of America’s checks and balances is that all involved have the humility to stay in their lanes. And the other branches have the commitment to insist they do.

  6. Nonapod…I see some rather wild claims being made about what the impact of room-temp superconductivity will be if it turns out to be for real…for example, that it will mark the end of capitalism, presumably because it will eliminate scarcity.

    But while unlimited cheap energy certainly would contribute to prosperity, it would not by itself call into existence reams of products and services…a dishwasher, for example, needs capital and skill for its fabrication, not only energy. And this applies even more to services such as healthcare, education, and entertainment.

  7. Nonapod,

    The arxiv pdf of the paper is intriguing. However, the results need to be replicated and arxiv paper is not peer reviewed….. yes, yes, yes….before all the naysayers jump all over me about peer review, it is still an important part of the process. And believe me, I’ve had my share of paper reviewers; most good, a few not at all good. Duplication of results is the still most important aspect.

    Also, no real mention in the paper as to the material qualities of L99 that would lend it to become a wire, etc. A room temp SC is fairly useless if it can’t be put into practical application.

    David Foster: I don’t know about changing society, but a room temp SC that could replace all our grid would result in about 40% savings in energy generation as that’s what we lose just through transmission losses.

  8. The Fitch credit rating firm downgraded US federal debt from AAA to AA+ today. The Biden campaign team had this to say about it.

    Biden’s re-election campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz and White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre blamed Trump and congressional Republicans for the downgrade.

    “This Trump downgrade is a direct result of an extreme MAGA Republican agenda defined by chaos, callousness, and recklessness that Americans continue to reject,” Munoz said, noting that Trump encouraged Republicans in Congress to “do the default” over the debt ceiling this year.

    Of course, it has nothing to do with Democrat leaders who spend and waste tax dollars habitually, compulsively, and reflexively.

  9. Also, no real mention in the paper as to the material qualities of L99 that would lend it to become a wire, etc. A room temp SC is fairly useless if it can’t be put into practical application. — physicsguy

    Very true. Also, all these nifty superconductive materials have a limiting magnetic field strength which directly connects to limiting current carrying densities.

  10. We fail ourselves by expecting the Republican party to organize any resistance to the Biden corruption, the deep state, or current trends i.e., failing education system, corrupt elections, etc.

    We are the fools when we wait to see what “the party” will do.

  11. Re: LK-99 Superconductor

    Wired has an approachable article on some of the ins and outs:
    ______________________________________

    Inside the DIY Race to Replicate LK-99

    Experts doubt claims that LK-99 is a room-temperature superconductor set to open up a future of levitating trains and quantum tech. Andrew McCalip wants to see for himself.

    …Then came a report: a respected lab in India said it had made LK–99. Superconductivity? Nope. Other results trickled in. It seemed everyone was measuring something different, perhaps because they were each making something different. Next, a preprint from a physicist, Sinéad Griffin, at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab seemed to offer a theoretical explanation for what the South Korean scientists might have seen. That was followed by caution from computational physicists like Dreyer from Stony Brook that it wasn’t really evidence one way or the other. The betting markets swooned and surged.

    https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-diy-race-to-replicate-lk-99/
    ______________________________________

    I’m reminded of the excitement, confusion, then disappointment over cold fusion.

  12. anne:

    The Republican Party is not unitary at all. It is composed of good and bad and doesn’t act as one. I see no purpose served by lumping them all together and condemning them. Among other things, it takes energy away from the fight against what the Democrats are doing.

  13. who could be categorized as a state-capacity libertarian,
    ==
    “Poseur libertarian” is closer to the mark. Cowan is very careful to never say anything that would be regarded as outre by the median arts-and-sciences faculty member.
    ==
    Note what really riles the autisitic Dr. Caplan. He doesn’t have any sacred cows in his gunsights either.

  14. Prof Cowan is an old classmate of mine. Poseur libertarian? Precisely. He reliably refuses to upset Ruling Class bigots. He lacks honest courage, and thus is a hanger-on literati who poses as if he had intellectual independence, when he doesn’t.

    Still, he and co-author Alex Tabarrok have authored a scintillating Econ textbook that I heartily recommend. Here’s Alex in a 6 minute video explaining the marginal part of economic thinking. (Marginal Revolution University videos are really the lecture side to supplement their textbook — or, perhaps, a replacement for the video-gamer Gen.) https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/new-econ-lesson-plans.html

  15. Art Deco & TJ:

    Thanks for taking the time to comment on Tyler Cowen and his so-called libertarianism.

    As for Cowen’s report on the Congressional hearings on UFOs, it might be telling that the piece is entitled “Are UFOs a Threat to National Security?”. If you wish, you could read the article as the standard opinion of a “state-capacity libertarian.” It’d be even more interesting if read as an essay written by a “poseur libertarian” who would never upset the ruling class. Have UFOs really become a respectable topic for a national security debate? If the hearings are the first episode in a serious assessment of the potential for an attack by aliens, then I’m pretty sure that Bryan Caplan would side with the aliens. I don’t know what Tyler Cowen would do. Maybe sample their food?

    More generally, I agree that Tyler Cowen’s blog can sometimes be frustrating to read. There have even been posts that genuinely angered me. Even so, I’m impressed by how prolific he’s been, and I sincerely try to find writers who fall outside of my own political biases. There aren’t many I can stomach, and “Marginal Revolution” is still a blog I can read regularly. It sounds as if you can’t, and I understand your position.

    Anyway, for whatever reasons you choose, I’d still recommend reading Cowen’s “Bloomberg” essay on UFOs at https://archive.is/nMLFa .

  16. mkent on August 2, 2023 at 6:36 pm said:

    Did anyone watch the video? Wow!
    ________________________________________________________

    I agree. Wow! In this opinion, we’re far from alone. The video has generated 2.4 million views and 6185 comments.

    For those who enjoyed the video, I’d like to recommend the course “Roman Architecture” taught by Diana E. E. Kleiner. On YouTube, the course is presented as twenty-four videos, each lasting a bit more than an hour.

    Here’s the link: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBCB3059E45654BCE

    Twenty-four videos may sound daunting, but the course is easy and fun. I can’t believe that Yale students get credit for watching it.

    Anyway, here’s a course description:

    “This course is an introduction to the great buildings and engineering marvels of Rome and its empire, with an emphasis on urban planning and individual monuments and their decoration, including mural painting. While architectural developments in Rome, Pompeii, and Central Italy are highlighted, the course also provides a survey of sites and structures in what are now North Italy, Sicily, France, Spain, Germany, Greece, Turkey, Croatia, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, and North Africa. The lectures are illustrated with over 1,500 images, many from Professor Kleiner’s personal collection.”

  17. Re: “Barbie” movie

    Sadly for conservatives, “Barbie” had an excellent second weekend, losing only 43% off its blockbuster first weekend.

    In comparison “Indiana Jones 5” declined 58% off a disastrously low first weekend box office. IJ5 is a dead loss.

    I’m not particularly surprised. The “Barbie” audience is far different from the male fans for “Star Wars” and “Indiana Jones.”

    Plus that female audience hasn’t been serially subjected to, assuming they would notice, the male-bashing of “Barbie” as males were to “Star Wars” and “Indiana Jones.”

    I’m not watching “Barbie” yet, though I will if I can do so for free, but I can see the appeal of fun, imaginative summer comedy based on a sixties cultural icon.

  18. PA+Cat:

    Of course, what I want to know is whether Trudeau could speak French. 🙂

    He did a high school immersion program and came out bilingual. After graduating from McGill, he taught French and math at a private school.

    So, he’s not entirely worthless! I guess…

    The Canadian language immersion programs seem to work. But the conventional ones are about as good as American public school Spanish classes.

  19. Watched Sagan’s “Contact” tonight. The wonder of alien contact, then Jodie Foster’s wild ride through the cosmic wormholes were magnificent, and worth the price of admission.

    Nonetheless Sagan’s cartoonish versions of Americans not meeting Sagan’s standards for rationality still grate. A Christian suicide bomber says it all.

    Especially since Sagan was not that rational a fellow himself when it came to harnessing science for his agenda.

  20. Neo’s Link to What Did Ancient Rome Look Like? (Cinematic Animation).
    Just – wow!

  21. huxley says, “Of course, what I want to know is whether Trudeau could speak French.”

    The comments over at Small Dead Animals are brutal, as you might expect– among them, one commenter linked to a tweet suggesting that Trudeau’s copain (or one of them) is the President of the French Republic:

    https://twitter.com/MattWallace888/status/1686923776112332800

    Which implies that Justine either speaks French very well on his own, or that he has a Very Important Tutor.

  22. Cornflour–

    RE: UFOs

    The Cowen article was interesting, and probably articulated how a lot of people–as of this moment–think about the issue of UFOs.

    The military has been aware of and highly interested these UFOs since at least WWII, and perhaps even earlier, and documents released through FOIA indicate that some clear eyed Air Force leaders, General Twining for one, had summarized their operational characteristics—the same ones observers witness today—and realized that these were real objects back at the time of the Roswell crash (which he was involved in) back in 1947. *

    But, for whatever reason—various National Defense considerations, refusal to admit that our various militaries have no control over these vehicles trespassing, with impunity, in our air spaces and oceans, hovering over our ICBM fields (and sometimes taking our ICBMS off launch status as at Malmstrom AFB in 1967, or starting their launch sequences as reportedly happened in Russia), nuclear weapons labs and storage sites, wishing to reverse engineer crashed vehicles to gain an insurmountable technological advantage over our adversaries, perhaps monetary gain for civilian contractors exploiting what they have learned and can commercialize, or even as cover for the existence of a posited “Breakaway Civilization”–from what I can see there has been a generational cover up, intimidation, disinformation, and ridicule campaign, one designed to intimidate, suppress, and to delegitimize anyone who might think of leaking true information, to marginalize this issue, and to make the issue of UFOs and anyone who sees them as real–and perhaps a real threat–as delusional; a tin-foil hat wearing whack job.

    This campaign—in operation now for two or three generations–has been extremely successful.

    However, when credible trained witnesses–backed up by multiple, top of the line sensor systems–say that they are encountering and seeing these objects more and more frequently, and these objects have operational characteristics, to coin a phrase,”light years” more advanced than anything we humans have or know how to do–given our current knowledge of physics–serious investigation is long since warranted.

    It is true that there have been only a handful of reports of UFOs causing apparently deliberate, direct harm to humans, but then you also have to consider all of the reports of Abductions–from many of these reports, hardly a pleasant experience.

    That’s a real threat, and needs to be investigated to determine if such Abductions are—as I suspect many are–real experiences.

    Then, of course, there is the fact that whoever or whatever is controlling these craft, and in possession of far superior technology, has not yet made a move to take us over, or to even make any demands, that we know of.

    But, many of these UFOs—the top 5% or so which are truly “unidentified”–do not just wander around without apparent aim, instead, they show awareness, intentional behavior, and intelligent control, as they focus on our military formations, bases, exercises and deployments, and on nuclear research labs, weapons storage facilities, and activities.

    Some see whoever or whatever is directing these craft as being our benign “Space Brothers” and that may be, but if these UFOs activities aren’t a potential—I say “potential threat”–I don’t know what is.

    We would be extremely foolish, indeed, if we did not take such a potential threat very seriously, and to do whatever we could to investigate it.

    * See https://www.howandwhys.com/twining-memo-usaf-general-confirmed-ufos-are-real-in-1947/

  23. RE” UFOs and space

    As usual information about UFOs just keeps slowly seeping out–like one of those high school science experiments, where a chemical slowly permeates a solution until, all of a sudden, the solution becomes super saturated, and a phase change occurs.

    Now, all of a sudden, people are mentioning that “oh, by the way,” we think that the UFOs we see on our radars–which can only track objects up to 88,000 feet–at the edge off space–are coming in from further out in space, then, dropping down into our atmosphere.

    Contemplate that for a second, if these UFOs are indeed very capable alien space craft, they could be all over our solar system, doing who knows what, for instance, building outposts, and harvesting some of the elements and minerals which likely exist in abundance “out there” in our solar system.

    I wonder what data NORAD might have, and what our various sensors–both downward looking ones, and those out in orbit, have gathered on UFOs?

  24. the problem with trudeau, is he speaks jibberish in every language, it’s kind of a gift really, like tim blair’s universal translator,

  25. What do you say to someone who obsessively prattles on about his hobby, be it the speciation of nematodes or numerology?

  26. if they have been monitoring our transmissions, they stay at least a parsec away, or are scheduling us for demolitions, change my mind,

    now the less amusing aspects of zoolander, my nic for trudeau is his audition as prince rupert re the canadian truckers, his gifting
    money and property to a then baby terrorist, the egyptian version of the crowder clan, from justified, his euthanizing veteran soldiers,

  27. P.S.–If I recall correctly, in the data on UFOs that AARO head Dr. Shaun Kirkpatrick recently briefed Congress on in a public session–in the charts and graphs which he used to summarize his findings to date–data from the Air Force and NORAD were conspicuously missing.

  28. om–Well, let’s see, perhaps I “prattle on” because it seems to me that there has been a deliberate effort by the powers that be, with the absolutely critical help of the MSM, to marginalize and to confuse things, to suppress information, and to muddy the waters with regard to UFOs–and, as we have discovered, with many other topics–and I want to give this issue more visibility, and to keep people informed about things which I judge to be important and, in this case, could be of potentially supreme, game-changing importance.

    It doesn’t hurt to get some more information, and if you are so annoyed by my “prattling” why, just pass on by, and don’t read anything that if have usually clearly labeled–at the onset–as being about UFOs.

  29. Snow on Pine:

    Indeed, what to do? Change the subject, graciously leave the conversation, say a silent prayer? A social dilema.

  30. ufo’s are less ridiculous then the other garbage they ask to accept, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,

  31. @Snow on Pine:if you are so annoyed by my “prattling” why, just pass on by, and don’t read anything that if have usually clearly labeled–at the onset–as being about UFOs.

    If neo’s annoyed she’ll let you know. As for anyone else, they should scroll past and not waste time trying to police the comments. Personally I skip your UFO comments, and there’s a simple script that doesn’t let me see the comments of people I know to be trolls, as I like my blood pressure where it is.

    Anyone who doesn’t like your UFO stuff is free to do the same, and should. Which is adult behavior as opposed to teenaged Mean Girl behavior.

  32. Indeed, a social dilema.

    Some have UFOs others have the Uniparty/Globetrotters.

    There have been folks who were Flat Earth believers. Neo lost patience with them. Her blog, her rules.

  33. Snow on Pine : I can’t read much of my fav blogs until late at night.
    But I hope you see this.
    I am very interested in the sincere posts on UFO’s.
    Please continue to share your news & views, as long as Neo allows.
    I have no doubt Earth has alien visitors.

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