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The polls, for what they’re worth — 23 Comments

  1. Nov,22 and 24 are a long way away. As “someone” is always say “Don’t Get Cocky”.

  2. My guess is that the Democrats don’t plan to run either Biden or Kamala in 2024. Who they will run isn’t at all clear to me

    They don’t exactly have a deep bench of potential candidates who would be massively appealing to independents/moderates. The only person I can think of who may be appealing to the middle might be Tulsi Gabbard. And I can’t say if she’d really be that appealing, just not as insane as everyone else they’ve got.

    But the greater problem of course is the massive damage that will be wrought in the meantime, even if the GOP retakes both houses and confines Biden to a lame duck status.

  3. “…got past…”

    And then there’s that diary….my oh my…

    Of course before the diary there was…Hunter.
    Which means that Joe really didn’t have to sic the FBI on Project Veritas.
    Which means that the diary is likely genuine.

    Epilogue: But before there was Hunter there was…Joe hisself…

  4. Well, it’s media. Most people don’t follow politics at all and when they do they hear a soundbite from someone already in the tank for the Dems. It’s just like pro-wrestling but most people aren’t yet aware it’s fake.

    Example 1: “there’s his own abrasive personality that a lot of “nice” people just can’t get past.

    Somehow many of them got past Biden’s nasty personality, however.”

    Everyone in America knows what Donald Trump is like from watching him on TV for 40 years. Hardly anyone in America knows what Joe Biden is actually like, they don’t follow the Senate personalities. They know he was Obama’s VP and he’s President now, and I think they are forming conclusions pretty rapidly about what he’s like, but they didn’t follow him over 40 years like they did Trump.

    Example 2: “I saw that poll yesterday and wondered why people would disapprove more of Harris than of Biden. To me, someone who does bad stuff (Biden) is worse than someone who does nothing at all except make vapid speeches and giggle inappropriately (Harris). ”

    Americans are not following all the stuff politicians do, they are following how they look on TV. They can see Harris giggling inappropriately, making vapid speeches, etc.

    Example 3:”There also is a hint there of why some Republicans in Congress supported the infrastructure bill. Americans “overwhelmingly” favor it (2 to 1).” Well, the media describes it as an “infrastructure” bill and it says that in the title. If they described it as a “Free Pumpkin Pie” bill and if all the media talked about was the free pumpkin pie I’m sure it would poll at 2-1 even if it was only served in the labor camps the bill ships everyone off to. They wouldn’t like the slave labor any better but they wouldn’t connect it to the bill.

  5. “46% say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected”

    The reason it’s only 46% is because we all expected him to do this badly.

  6. Who they will run isn’t at all clear to me

    Gavin Newsome
    Gretchen Whitmer
    Jay Inslee (snort)

    One or more senators, except they won’t have the same cachet as “we kept [state] safe from Covid!” as governors will.

  7. Stopped believing in polls in 2016 when Hillary was going to walk into the White House.
    Remember polls are all produced by the Democrats Propaganda Ministry

  8. “…we all expected him to do this badly.”

    Well, yes, that’s true; but I never expected “him” to so openly and so obviously sabotage the country.

    (That is, I thought “he” would try to be more subtle about it…)

    Should have expected it, I guess…since I should have realized Obama2.0 would HAVE TO ENSURE that no one can try to save the country ever again. And ensure it AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE (given that that stolen election might possibly be—somehow—overturned at any moment)…

    I.e., WOULD HAVE TO ENSURE THAT THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO SAVE. (Or that the trajectory is unstoppable…)

  9. I’ve seen several headlines lamenting Biden’s “rock-bottom” approval ratings but I don’t think Biden has reached bottom at all. If we continue to see inflation and shortages due to supply chain issues (or more foreign policy bungling) we will see how low Biden can go. I think Biden could sink another 10 percentage points before hitting bottom.

    As much as Biden deserves every bit of ridicule and disapproval that he gets, it’s not really healthy for a country to have its “leader” held in such contempt. I don’t think I’ve seen such a phenomenon before.

    Carter was unpopular but for the most part because he was seen as ineffective. I think most people thought he was a decent guy who was in over his head. To his credit, Carter did learn a few things and he did a number of positive things before leaving office.

    I was fairly young during the Nixon presidency and he certainly was hated by many but I think most people had some respect for his intelligence, even if they thought he was an evil SOB.

    Trump, Obama, Clinton, and the Bushes all had their share of haters but they also had some qualities that redeemed them in the eyes of their supporters.

    I can’t really think of a redeeming quality to Biden in his current condition. Even among the most die-hard Trump haters, Biden is certainly not the person that they would want in charge to make tough decisions in a national crisis. But there is no realistic option to replace Biden as the so-called leader of what used to be the free world becomes a laughing stock.

  10. Democrat policies are kicking average Americans in the gut.

    They’re starting to notice.

  11. Geoffrey, after the previous four years of the non-stop demonizing of Trump and his supporters (which demonization has continued, reaching its climax at the staged “insurrection” of Jan. 6 and its aftermath), then THE WHOLE POINT is that “average Americans” actually DESERVE to be kicked “in the gut” (IOW what “Biden” means by “UNITY”).

    Which humble sentiment is what’s keeping “Biden” afloat in the polls, not that I believe the polls are accurate, mind you (I think that the true percentage of those who don’t favor “Biden” is far, far lower; on the other hand, I don’t think it really matters what the number is the way the Democrats have succeeded in grabbing—and maintaining—power….)

  12. A year before the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans hold a clear lead on the congressional ballot as President Joe Biden’s approval rating sinks to a new low of 38%.

    WHICH Republicans? They have a few articulate individuals, but as a ‘party’, the Republicans are about as collected and mission-positive as a tin can full of fishing worms.

  13. I’ve been waiting for the left to switch to,. “Sure, we cheated, chump. What are you going to do about it?”
    But now it might be…..”Somebody cheated. Nobody I know is dumb enough to vote for this clown.”

  14. Does anyone else remember when some TV pundit would utter “The only poll that matters is the one on election day.”

    The d’s STILL control vote ‘counting’ in altogether too many states.

    So, personally, I’m not all warm and fuzzy about 2022 or 2024. My only hope is … I’m wrong.

  15. The Trafalgar Group (based in Atlanta) has had the best polling track record for some cycles.

    Why do they get so little attention?

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  17. I agree with Frederick that those of us who are awake often fail to understand what motivates many voters. Pertinent facts are some of the least important decision points among many in the electorate. (That also explains why Kamala’s numbers are lower than Joe’s. It’s why the studio system did screen tests. People have intangible qualities that can be either appealing or unappealing to the masses.)

  18. They have a few articulate individuals, but as a ‘party’, the Republicans are about as collected and mission-positive as a tin can full of fishing worms.

    When your leading officials are Bitc* McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, a more descriptive name would be “Donorist Fredocon Party”.

  19. 1. I don’t know how I would answer. I predicted Biden would be a disaster. He had met those expectations. I guess farting loudly in front of Parker-Bowles snd rumored pooping his pants in front of the Pope does mean he has fallen further than I thought.
    2. I think several cabinet members jumped at the chance as a stepping stone to the presidency. I have no doubt Butigieg and Granholm will run. Maybe McAuliffe if he’s a glutton for punishment.

  20. Someone who deserves credit I unfortunately cannot give, linked to a thread containing Glenn Greenwald’s disgusted tweets regarding a lying, institutionally degenerate, deep state enabling and complicit, and now, unapologetically shameless, mainstream and legacy media.

    His conclusion was that their audience – their ideoligical constituency – doesn’t really care if they lie in a partisan cause. These media and their shills are scratching a particular listener’s aural itch with with the words these consumers want to hear spoken. What’s “truth” got to do with it?

    “What is ‘truth’? ” anyway, as someone realistically attuned to power and its uses once notably asked. If people still remembered him, he might nowadays be embraced and celebrated as the very model of todays’ pragmatic deep state managers, functionaries, beneficiaries, and grateful hangers-on.

    How many of your own sinecured soy-boy sons or nephews, your smug sisters-in-law, your ardently progressive nieces or daughters, would really change their vote if they found that their guys were breaking every moral law known to God and man in order to deliver them the dream they dream?

    How many would object even if maintaining and growing that that beautiful dream of lordly status and power involved breaking the very bodies of so-called innocents – recalcitrants on their view – who refused to play the game?

    After all, as a Canadian feminist who decided to eschew all euphemism proudly announced regarding abortion, ‘ Some lives are worth sacrificing for the benefit other’s ‘.(paraphrase)

    So, how many would “repent and have a change of heart”?

    I’ll answer for you. None. Or near as many as makes little to no difference.

    And if you don’t believe me, Glenn Greenwald said as much himself.

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