Home » Open thread 10/19/21

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Open thread 10/19/21 — 35 Comments

  1. The weekend covid data is in. Nationally, everything continues to drop. Active cases/day now declining at about -15k/day for the 14 day rolling average, and I expect that number to increase over the week to about -25k/day. Yesterday, the one day number was -85k/day. Serious cases now at 0.11% and still falling. On the state level that I follow, Georgia and Florida lead the way with greatly decreasing numbers, NC falling but not as fast as FL and GA. NH is actually increasing for the last 3 weeks and no sign of slowing. CT was declining slowly but has flattened out. Colorado increasing numbers may be flattening, but that state oscillates.

    I saw an article last week, wish I could remember where, that said the reason the data has not been well-reported is that the administration wants to have a “great reveal” in a few weeks to distract from all its other disasters. Basically the administration will claim that its policies are so successful in beating the virus. I can definitely see that happening, and would explain the MSM not doing the reporting.

  2. Just another open-thread comment:

    For those who don’t regularly read Powerline, you might like to know that Scott Johnson has reported that Derek Chauvin has finally found a lawyer to represent his case on appeal.

  3. Watching a Rick Beato video. He mentioned his children’s names are Lennon and Layla.

    Of course they are.

  4. Lawyer for Chauvin:
    Very glad to hear that, Cornflour.
    An extremely courageous individual.
    A genuine defender of the law.
    (Can it be that there is only one in the entire profession in the US?)

  5. Thanks, Cornflour, for the PL update. I’ve cut back on the blogs I read to a VERY select few. Glad to hear that news.

    Highly partisan source but he makes a good point. If Walgreens says it is closing stores in SF due to massive organized shoplifting do you accept that or do you conclude, as SF elected officials do, that there are mysterious other reasons? The local left wing media is supporting the officials because “of course they are”.
    http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/san-fran-mayor-denies-walgreens-stores-closing-because-of-crime/

  6. Saw this link on another blog.
    It’s heartening that Denmark has started to see the obvious. And they’ve gradually developed an opposition party which is able to push actual policy changes.

    But “gradually” is the operative word. How long has it taken for these insights to come into public consciousness? A decade? More? Out of the entire Western world, is it only Denmark which can openly discuss these blindingly obvious truths?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/denmark-reveals-cost-non-western-immigration-5-billion-year
    1) ME, Pakistani and African immigrants cost a fortune, even compared to other non Western immigrants. More than triple.
    2) Diversity has a negative impact on society.

  7. I saw an article last week, wish I could remember where, that said the reason the data has not been well-reported is that the administration wants to have a “great reveal” in a few weeks to distract from all its other disasters. Basically the administration will claim that its policies are so successful in beating the virus.

    physicsguy:

    That’s one of my theories on why they are hitting the vaxx so hard — so they can claim credit when the Covid numbers drop, as they are now and I suspect will continue due to the vaxx and increasing herd immunity.

    My bet is we don’t see a big winter Covid surge.

  8. Helplessly hoping
    Her harlequin hovers nearby
    Awaiting a word
    Gasping at glimpses
    Of gentle true spirit
    He runs, wishing he could fly
    Only to trip at the sound of good-bye

    I remember staring at the cover of the first CS&N album in the record bins. It showed Nash, Stills and Crosby in standard denim and boots hippie garb seated informally on a ratty couch in front of a rundown LA house. Nonetheless, the photograph had an odd gravitas which stuck in my mind.

    Later I discovered one can make out Neil Young peering from behind a screen door on the back cover.

    The album sticker price said $3.99 — a not inconsequential sum to me in 1969. I wondered what sort of music might spring to life from the grooves. However, I lacked the courage for an impulse buy.

    Instead a friend bought the album and that was my first listen. I was bemused by the alliteration in “Helplessly Hoping.” It was over the top enough that I winced, but was still amused. I remain ambivalent on the point.

    That first album remains a gem from the era. CS&N weren’t just any three hippies.

  9. Basically the administration will claim that its policies are so successful in beating the virus. I can definitely see that happening, and would explain the MSM not doing the reporting.

    That seems likely. It explains the mandate push. Of course, the decline has nothing to do with mandates whatsoever. It’s just the Delta tide receding after working it’s way through the population this past summer.

    We’re coming up on 2/3rds of everybody (man, woman, and child) being vaccinated. And at this point, the total universe of people who both haven’t yet been vacinated and haven’t ever had Covid is likely pretty small, possibly even as low as 10% of the total population. So, yeah, there’s just not that many people left who really can easily contract covid anymore. I mean, sure, there’s always the occasional breakthrough case, but probably not a significant number.

    Baring the emergence of some crazy new variant that circumvents the built up immunities, I imagine the downward trend will continue throughout the rest of the year. By New Year’s it’s likely that we could be below 1k cases a day nationally.

  10. The Foxes and Fossils cover has some of the most silky-smooth harmonizing I’ve ever heard. However, they don’t bring much else to the song that Stephen Stills and the boys did.

    I’m reminded of Newton’s remark about “standing on the shoulders of giants.”

  11. Huxley-
    About that CSN album cover – Somewhere I read that the old abandoned house caught their eye on a road trip. They stopped and snapped a few quick shots. The next day (?) they went back with a photographer to do it right….and the house had been demolished. So, kind of a moment in time.

    Around here all roads lead back to a certain subject.
    When Crosby, Stills & Nash met The Bee Gees:

    https://youtu.be/P1ic32EJ3As

    Backstage at the 1997 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame rehearsal. Both groups were being inducted. Find the actual meet-up at 2:12.
    The sound is a little patchy but it takes no time before David Crosby and Maurice Gibb are bonding over sobriety while Graham Nash and Barry Gibb discover a Manchester connection.
    Don’t we assume that famous people all know each other? Maybe the opposite is true…they live in their own little bubble. Anyway, a fun behind-the-scenes glimpse.

  12. huxley:

    And of course the originators CS&N get many extra kudos for writing and arranging it.

  13. And of course the originators CS&N get many extra kudos for writing and arranging it.

    neo:

    Yes. I had that in mind too.

    Crosby and Nash are great singers and writers, but from what I understand Stills was the genius behind their sound. IMO he doesn’t get the credit he deserves for that and his guitar playing.

  14. Ruth:

    Great story about the CS&N cover! I hadn’t heard that before.

    There’s often a weird magic to the first photos of a subject one takes.

  15. Worldometers reports about 46 million diagnosed COVID cases in the US. Conservatively, that probably means 92 million, or about 27%, of our population has had the disease. If the number of undiagnosed cases is three times the diagnosed instead of two times, that’s 138 million, or about 42% of the population. And these “cases” are heavily weighted among the vulnerable, not children and young adults. At what point do we reach herd immunity, or at least where the disease is endemic, but not epidemic?

  16. At what point do we reach herd immunity, or at least where the disease is endemic, but not epidemic?

    Strictly speaking, it’s when ” the infection level is neither growing nor declining exponentially”. Since the daily case rate has been declining for over a month now, it indicates that we most likely passed the “herd immunity” threshhold at least a month ago… for the Delta variant and all the current varants circulating nationally anyway.

  17. We thought we were reaching herd immunity last spring, based on the case numbers and vaccination numbers, until, sadly, we began to learn that the vaccines do not prevent infection and transmission. Now, with the blurring of data caused by employers and governments insisting on vaccinating people with natural immunity, it seems we won’t know if we’ve hit the decline for good for a while. Some countries seem to be there (Sweden, for example), and some small communities here (the Lancaster, PA, Amish).

  18. At what point do we reach herd immunity, or at least where the disease is endemic, but not epidemic?

    When it is in the interest of the Brandon Administration and Gauleiter Inslee, and not a moment before, citizen. Best not to ask about such things, eh?

  19. Several weeks ago neighboring Boulder Cty (CO) mandated masks in stores. Not being strictly enforced in a town near me. My Cty North of Boulder has now mandated masks starting Wed. I won’t wear one, unless they get shirty about it. Of course medical areas have always mandated them.

  20. Dennis Prager on the difference between liberals and leftists. Do you agree with him, Neo?
    —-
    The Left is Evil — and Liberals Keep Voting for Them

    The list of liberal-left differences is as long as the list of left-wing positions. Yet, it is liberals who keep the left in power. Were it not for the liberal vote, the left would have no power.

    So why do liberals vote for the left, for the very people who hold liberals and their values in contempt?

    There are two primary reasons.

    One is brainwash. Liberals are brainwashed from childhood into believing that the right is their enemy and that pas d’ennemis a gauche (there are “no enemies on the left”). That is why there is no left-wing position, no matter how destructive or vile, that could move a liberal to vote Republican or identify with conservatives.

    The second reason is fear. Liberals fear they will lose friends and even family if they do not vote Democrat or if they publicly criticize the left. And this is not an irrational fear.

    https://townhall.com/columnists/dennisprager/2021/10/19/the-left-is-evil–and-liberals-keep-voting-for-them-n2597646

  21. Foxes and Fossils executed far better. They have better voices. And when you consider that the CSN version was produced in a studio with as many takes and edits and other adjustments to get the best version while F&F’s version is live in a parking lot of a taco joint, it’s a first round knockout. And yes, I confess to being about as biased as one can be. Note, F&F isn’t trying to add something new or different in this one. The point of a lot of their covers is to sound very close to the original. What is striking is how well they manage to sound so much like so many different artists.

  22. physicsguy

    Great comment. I think there will be a covid surge in the northern tier of states this winter but it will much smaller and mostly among those vaccinated as many people have natural (acquired) immunity.

    The response from the various states involved will be pervasive masking requirements despite masks being demonstrably ineffective. Because lock downs have serious side effects and masking is the only thing they can do without further impoverishing their domains.

  23. Someone above made a comment which seems to assume that the covid jab actually has some efficacy in stopping infections. The science is piling up as high as a mountain that this is just plain wrong. In fact, the jab appears to make the spread of infections slightly more likely.

    I realize that the dominant narrative is pushing the jab and that people desperately want to believe that it actually works like a vaccine. But we have enough evidence now that this just ain’t so. It isn’t a vaccine. It doesn’t work like a vaccine. In fact, it doesn’t work at all.

    All that mass jabbing accomplishes is making herd immunity harder. There are several of the world’s most experienced doctors who have been banging this drum for over a year. Jabbing everyone just forces the variants to emerge.

  24. https://nationalfile.com/study-published-on-nih-website-finds-no-discernable-relationship-between-vaccine-status-and-covid-cases-says-infection-rate-may-be-higher-among-fully-vaccinated/

    “At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days,” the report states. “In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days.”

  25. stan:

    You can’t compare country to country like that study does, because highly vaccinated countries tend to have had higher COVID rates anyway, even prior to vaccination. What you need to do is to compare the COVID rates in vaccinated people in a certain country to the COVID rates in unvaccinated people in that same country, matched for race and weight and co-morbidities (that’s rates and not sheer numbers, by the way). The studies I have read that do that have found that unvaccinated people have significantly higher rates of both infection and death.

  26. stan:

    There is no evidence that infection rates are higher in vaccinated people. And although vaccination certainly doesn’t stop infections, it makes them far less serious and decreases the death rate very significantly.

  27. Serious issues with those studies, too. But hey, the medical and national health establishments have lied relentlessly and shamelessly for the last two years. In addition to censorship and unprecedented bullying to eliminate any dissent by other medical researchers. And we’ve known that the vast majority of science studies are flawed for many years. So I’m sure it would be wise to assume that the grossly incompetent and corrupt establishments are being totally honest and competent with us on this topic.

    You think?

  28. Those Damn Chinese copied your Quantum Cryptography $%^&… Is there no level to which those Chinks won’t stoop?

    Oh wait… They nutted it out themselves? You don’t have this particular capability? Jumping Jehoshaphat! That’s not what it said on the Cope-ium box. Oh well… best get those Wise Latinas and Black Tranny Quantum Physicists on the job. Can only be Structural Racism holding the West back from defeating those nefarious Orientals.

    https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/china-pushes-quauntum-comms-to-a-new-level/

    As I keep repeating.. All a peer-level competitor has to be is less stupid and distracted than the USA. How hard is that these days? A dollar here.. a dollar there…

  29. @ JimNorCal – the Zerohedge post is just copying this article; I don’t know why Durden does that, but at least he links the original source.

    https://summit.news/2021/10/18/denmark-reveals-cost-of-non-western-immigration-5-billion-per-year/

    If you look at Summit’s “you may like” list, however, you can see a partisan slant that Zerohedge kind of glosses over in their one-step-removed coverage (true on almost everything they recycle).
    At least Durden copied the originator’s donation & purchasing links as well.

    As to the substance of the post:

    Contrary to the SJW’s go-to complaint, the problem is not skin color and prior nationality per se, and the price of mega-migration applies to more countries than just Denmark, although they may never undertake or publish a study with that finding.

    The massive cost is a direct failure of the policy of importing people with little to no modern education, none of the marketable skills needed in a modern industrial nation, and very little cultural or religious correlations to those of the host country.
    And then failing to insist on the assimilation of the guests to the host.

    Some of that is ideological (as in believing that one’s own country’s values are not to be preferred over the immigrants’), but mostly it is a practical restriction – too many people coming too close together too fast for it to be done.
    But those problems are also policy failures of a different sort.

  30. @ Bob > “The Left is Evil — and Liberals Keep Voting for Them”

    Prager is much more erudite than I am or will ever be, but his argument is at least parallel to what I said on yesterday’s thread (too long to copy in full).

    And, as usual, his arguments are muddy if you don’t use the codebook:
    A modern Liberal is really a Progressive, and modern Conservatives are actually the classical liberals; many progressives claim to believe in liberal values, and some of them actually practiced them in the past, whereas former conservatives didn’t always practice some of the values they claimed to believe in.

    It’s complicated.

    https://www.thenewneo.com/2021/10/18/how-to-run-america/#comment-2583719
    “In re the controversy over “intentional” vs “accident / incompetence” –”

    Always nice to find out a credible pundit agrees with me!

    Also, Kurt Schlichter’s “obit” for General Powell seems to depict him as one of Prager’s “Liberals who enable the Left.”

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2021/10/19/colin-powell-and-the-crisis-of-the-boomer-elite-n2597632?utm_campaign=rightrailsticky3

    Powell became a reliably Democrat-voting Republican, the kind CNN would wheel out every election cycle to explain how actual Republicans are terrible.

    Though he was firmly on the side of the woke pronoun people by the end, he was not one of them. He picked up a rifle; they picked a gender. Powell was a serious man who found himself allied with unserious people.

    (Other assertions in that post have been discussed elsewhere, beginning here.)
    https://www.thenewneo.com/2021/10/18/colin-powell-dies-of-covid-complications/#comment-2583661

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