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Home » Are all the hostages dead?

Are all the hostages dead?

The New Neo Posted on by

It’s an unanswerable question. I ask it now because of this report:

On Monday, however, Israel’s Channel 12 news reported that Hamas was trying to negotiate the release of fewer hostages on the grounds it had “no ability to release 40” abductees who fit the initial request by Israeli negotiators.

Most of what is written on this topic is conjecture. No one knows, and I suspect that even Hamas doesn’t quite know (although it knows more than the rest of us) because some of the kidnappers were “free-lancers,” because the hostages have not been kept in a central location, and because they’ve been moved around so much by so many people. I do think we can safely say that many of the hostages are dead, at least nearly forty and perhaps many more; perhaps even all. My personal belief is that there are probably at least 50 still alive, but not necessarily in the categories of “woman, children, and the elderly and/or sick.” But I confess I really have no idea.

We do know that Hamas lies – perhaps it’s lying about almost everything.

We do know that Hamas has no interest in whether the hostages ultimately die, except that they are valuable bargaining chips.

We do know that Hamas wants and expects a great deal for the hostages: probably the release of all Palestinian prisoners, the cessation of all hostilities, and being kept in power, at the very least. Israel is highly unlikely to give in to all of that, despite intense pressure from its “friends” in the Biden administration and Europe.

We do know that in the past Israel has given Hamas a great deal for a single hostage, so Hamas feels encouraged to hold out for everything it wants.

ADDENDUM:

A few more thoughts –

It almost goes without saying that the hostages who are still alive (if there are any) have been and still are being sexually abused and tortured in various ways both imaginable and unimaginable, as well as starved. The younger women are especially likely to have been heavily sexually abused, but such abuse is almost certainly not limited to them.

It is also worth remembering that many of the remaining hostages are IDF soldiers, including the women, and thus might be expected to be treated particularly harshly by Hamas and other Palestinians. Some were already wounded when kidnapped and may have died of their wounds quite some time ago.

I assume Israel has some intelligence on all of this but that their knowledge of what has happened to each hostage is far from complete.

It is in Hamas’ interest to maintain the idea that many hostages are alive and/or that they don’t know how many are alive even if they do. As I said, hostages are bargaining chips to them. It is also in Israel’s interest to pretend to be willing to give up more than they actually are willing to give up in exchange for the hostages’ return, because if Hamas thinks Israel might actually release all prisoners and agree to a ceasefire, then Hamas is more likely to keep at least some of the hostages alive in order to make that happen.

But the world’s lack of concern about the barbaric crime of taking the hostages and their sadistic treatment while in captivity gives more power to Hamas to do whatever it wishes with them. And Israel’s prior lopsided hostage deals have made the situation worse because if Hamas got over a thousand prisoners released (including Sinwar) for one Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, it makes sense that Hamas would think that abducting over 200 hostages would give it almost unlimited power over Israel.

But it is also worth remembering that Shalit was held for five years and kept alive. I realize the situation is not especially analogous to that of the current hostages, but at least there is the fact that he was kept alive. Shalit also was the first captured Israeli soldier to be released alive in 26 years. Unless I’m mistaken, none of the October 7 hostages who have been released so far were soldiers. One female Israeli soldier was rescued by the IDF early on, however: Ori Megidish.

Comments

Are all the hostages dead? — 52 Comments

  1. Maybe. I’ve been wolli I’m not to risk. My life for stupife an in r yhiings

  2. All the while a callous indifference, nay, acquiescence! characterizes the international attitude to Hamas’ heinous acts. Disgusting.

  3. I hope this report is wrong, but I fear it’s right. The circumstances are different from previous hostage exchanges in some respects. Hamas is on the brink of loss, and it does not have central control over the hostages and their care, apparently.

  4. Iv see hate myself as an officer for risking their lives in wars their government doesn’t want to win.

  5. Read up on Islam history, your concussion would have been on Oct 8 if not then they all soon would be raped, tortured then murdered. Some get released to gain as bargain chips but that’s the small percentage.

  6. At best they don’t know where the hostages are. More likely though is that they are all dead. I say this because, if they were alive, Hamas would already be looking for 100 to 1 swaps or big bucks, or both, in return for the hostages. They haven’t played that card because they know the Israelis would want proof that the hostages are alive and they can’t do that.

    As long as Hamas pretends that the hostages are still alive they can use them as invisible shields. If Israel calls their bluff in a negotiation, it’s all over.

  7. Kurt Schlichter on the Gaza war and the hostages:

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2024/04/08/israel-is-risking-losing-this-war-by-caring-what-people-who-hate-it-think-n2637467

    Excerpt: “There are a lot of hard truths here, and somebody must speak them. The first hard truth is those hostages are probably dead. Hamas likely murdered most of them. It’s certainly torturing and raping the survivors. You cannot have a successful strategy that prioritizes hostage lives. You just can’t. The priority has to be defeating the enemy.”

    Sadly, I think Schlichter is right on both counts: on the likely fate of the hostages and on what Israel’s top priority should be. But this is Israel and this is how they fight.

  8. Why do we never get a straight answer and no agency seems to care

    We go down the rollcall is a alive where is he when can he released and down the list

  9. They have a minor interest in the IDF believing them to be alive in that it restricts the firepower they can bring to bear on place they suspect house hostages and Hamas leaders.

  10. Bibis not a dictator hes in a coalition govt facing treacherous so called allies meaning the west the shanbling oaf that slithy monarch that has dropped out of the picture the chuck wagon compromised by arab
    donors like the bin ladens and bin mahfouz clans the foreign minister who came back when no needed him

  12. Idk maybe this is well known, maybe it isn’t.

    When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941, they also attacked the Phillipines. Many United States soldiers were killed and captured, and then subjected to what came to be known as the Bataan Death March. The newspapers asked the Chief of Staff in Washington DC General George C. Marshall about launching a rescue mission for these captured Americans— and he replied that it would not be possible it would simply not be practicable all things considered , and the quote from General Marshall was, “Unfortunately, sometimes men must die.” And no attempt to rescue those Americans was made in 1941 or 1942 and so a lot of them did die.

    Brief reminder: In October, 2023, six months ago, Israel was not dealing with active attacks from Yemen, from Lebanon, from Iraq, from Syria and etc. Even the best armies can only deal with so many things at ne time.

    Iran’s strategy is to exhaust Israel via warfare and via lawfare and threats to newspapers and politicians and celebrities, etc.

    ————

    One other piece of esoterica: When the first atom bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, the American High Command knew that there were American prisoners being held at a camp there. And that most would be killed, August 6, 1945. The bomb was dropped anyway, and the killing all stopped a few days later — so it was the right decision.

    I think we should be grateful that we do not have to make these terrible decisions ourselves.

  13. Sadly, I think Schlichter is right on both counts: on the likely fate of the hostages and on what Israel’s top priority should be. But this is Israel and this is how they fight.

    Hubert:

    Likewise on Schlichter. I accept that Israel took their optimistic shot. However, Hamas is Hamas.
    ____________________________________

    Joe Biden has betrayed every ally America has had, from South Vietnam to Afghanistan and Bibi somehow imagined that creep would not sell-out Israel? Speed was of the essence. Why was Rafah not glass months ago? Netanyahu waited, and that gave Biden the time to sell out Israel.

    Restraining was a mistake. The fact is that Israel has, to a far too great extent, tried to fight this war on terms that would satisfy its leftist enemies in the United States and other anti-Semites around the world. That was an error from the beginning. Israel’s strategy should have focused on victory, not on trying to mollify its critics.

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2024/04/08/israel-is-risking-losing-this-war-by-caring-what-people-who-hate-it-think-n2637467
    ____________________________________

    I’m not going to second-guess Netanyahu. Under current conditions Israel is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

  14. General wainwright regreted that decision but he blamed macarthur

    Yes it was the passel of hostsges that led reagan into iran contra and part of bibis current dilemma

    I give him a fair amount of slack maybe in some alternative universe it would be easier

  15. Amnesty international made a big deal of some murderous prisoner of the popular front either habbash or jibrils faction who has gone to allah

  17. How could the US possibly rescue Americans in the Philippines in 1942 after the fall of Bataan? Where did this fantasy come from? Blame MacArthur for what? Not taking out the whole Philippine Division on the PTBoat with him?

  19. “Sadly, I think Schlichter is right on both counts: on the likely fate of the hostages and on what Israel’s top priority should be. But this is Israel and this is how they fight.” Hubert

    Israel has been fighting this war with the same tactics for 75 years. The Israeli left wants them to lose. The Israeli right refuses to identify and act against the real source of their enemy’s hatred. That refusal locks them into a reactive and defensive posture. Same ‘thinking’ = same ‘solutions’ = same ‘results’.

  20. huxley:

    I don’t think Schlicter understands Israel. Making Rafah into glass was never on the table. It’s not the Israeli way. In fact, this war is being waged more aggressively and ruthlessly than Israel is wont to do. Biden is every bit as awful as Schlicter says he is, but Netanyahu didn’t delay starting the war and didn’t refrain from turning Rafah into a parking lot because of Biden. It’s because of Israel itself and its own standards of behavior during war, plus (I would imagine) differences of opinion within the Israeli government and military.. In addition, they have to sort through the intelligence they gather from captured Hamas fighters.

    Much of the world hates Israel and would be glad to see it disappear, but even many of the people who don’t hate Israel might start hating it if it began carpet bombing Rafah, which seems to be what Schlicter is advocating.

  21. neo:

    Like I said:

    I’m not going to second-guess Netanyahu. Under current conditions Israel is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    I assume turning Rafah to glass was Schlichter’s hyperbole for going quick and hard into Rafah. Even carpet bombing wouldn’t turn it to glass. That’s nuclear weapon territory.

  22. It might have comefrom his memoirs

    The brits had a similar experience with singapore it took them nearly four years to recover the prisoners

    They are doing as much as is practical it took us 10 years to get bin laden another decade to get zawahiri so we have any right to lecture them

    Initially daniel silva was very cynical about israel in his precursor series to allon suggesting they were not sincerely interested in peace

  23. This evening’s headline in the NY Sun-
    “Global Leaders Adopting Many of Hamas Chief’s Demands of Israel as Their Own.”
    Disgusting. “Global leaders”, my ass.

  25. They never did reveal where shalit was being held. Just like there is never the location shown where the hostages were held unless the idf liberated them

  26. We don’t know if they are alive or not, but Hamas has to say they are and Israel has to act as if they are not. Sadly this is how it works.

  27. I’m disgusted by Hamas committing a heinous atrocity, then playing victim when Israel responds.
    Fits in with our looking-glass world of male women, mostly peaceful riots, and a gulag for trespassers and church ladies!

  28. @ miguel > “Terrible un surprising” – Prof. Jacobson’s tweet references this post :
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/in-major-policy-shift-biden-calls-for-israel-to-unilaterally-declare-ceasefire-in-gaza/

    “Biden” is insisting (in an interview last Wednesday) that Israel effectively surrender by agreeing to a cease-fire and aid surge with no hostages released in exchange.

    And Yet: “Hours before the interview aired, Biden’s top aides went on record presenting a very different approach to how the US wants to see a ceasefire come about, insisting that it was Hamas, not Israel that is holding up a deal that would see an extended pause in fighting, the hostages released and aid surge into Gaza.”

    How much does “Biden” know, or suspect, about the numbers living or dead?

  29. @ Dan Joppich > “As long as Hamas pretends that the hostages are still alive they can use them as invisible shields. If Israel calls their bluff in a negotiation, it’s all over.”

    Which is obvious to any reasonably sentient observer.
    Leaving out the Democrats and their PR flacks, sorry – “unbiased press,” by definition.

  30. Hamas also uses the bodies of dead Israelis as hostages.
    Why Israel’s governments agreed to allow increased numbers of Gazans to work in Israel without demanding that Hamas first return those bodies I’ll never understand.

  31. Israel is not going to do another lopsided Shalit type of deal. I also think it is time for Israel to start treating certain Hamas /Islamic Jihad prsionsers as war criminals and execute them.

    Barry+Meislin
    It is because they are greedy for cheap labor. Hopefully going forward not one Gazan will be allowed into Israel for work or medical treatment.

  32. Frankly, given the brutality of 10/7, I am surprised that Hamas was able to produce even the few hostages that they did. Hamas isn’t really running a military strategy in this war, it is running a propaganda strategy. Releasing hostages who had been raped or tortured would have made it just a little more difficult for the starry-eyed utopians in the west to suspend their disbelief.

  33. Except that…they did release hostages who were raped….

    People believe what they want to.
    (Surely I don’t have to tell YOU that…)

  34. I think Schlichter understands Israel and the Israeli way of war perfectly well. He’s arguing that Israel needs to change its way of war and adopt (in the late military historian Russell Weigley’s phrase) “the American way of war”, which is or rather used to be characterized by “an appetite for annihilating the enemy, a brutal massing of power to overwhelm the foe in totality” (Martin Blumenson, in his review of Weigley’s book). Schlichter is a veteran of the first Gulf War, the last clear U.S. military victory and an example of the successful application of overwhelming military power.

    “…[B]ut even many of the people who don’t hate Israel might start hating it if it began carpet bombing Rafah.” Or they might hate but respect it, on the principle of “oderint dum metuant” (let them hate so long as they fear). Israel’s attempts to placate world opinion don’t seem to be working very well. What we do know is that its cautious conduct of the war–if caution is indeed what it is–has emboldened Jew-haters like Mark Wauck of “Meaning in History”, who is already chortling with glee over what he is calling “Israel’s major defeat” in Gaza. I’m not going to link to that Opus Dei SOB, a former FBI counterintelligence agent who also happens to be the former brother-in-law of longtime Soviet mole and fellow Opus Dei member Robert Hanssen. Those who are interested in his and his commenters’ views can look him up on their own.

  35. It’s a reasonable wager they are dead. And that Mr. Netanyahu has a better take on what should be Israel’s next move than does Col. Schlichter.

  36. Related:
    ‘Germany’s “contribution” to building Gaza terror tunnels;
    ‘Water pipes that turned into rockets, sewers into terror tunnels and countless “dual use” materials | ARD reveals how aid granted to Gaza fueled the Hamas terror machine, right under the noses of the Germans’—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/388253

    To be fair, it’s not just the Germans who “contributed” to Hamas’s terror state.

    It’s just “How to manipulate Human Rights in order to destroy your enemies” 101.

  39. “And that Mr. Netanyahu has a better take on what should be Israel’s next move than does Col. Schlichter.” Like Huxley, I’m not going to second-guess Netanyahu, or Caroline Glick for that matter. In any case, my opinion is irrelevant. Schlichter makes a compelling argument for taking the gloves off, but it’s up to the Israelis. It’s their war–and their existence on the line. Hoping that commenters Ben-David and Leah (?) will weigh in at some point.

  42. The thing I don’t see being mentioned by anyone is that Israel really doesn’t have a large active-duty army. It, like Sweden and Switzerland, has a huge number of ready reserves it can call up at 24-hour notice. Mobilizing those reserves has a serious impact on Israel’s economy. Netanyahu is balancing maximum military force against economic damage.

  43. Like I said: you must consider any hostages dead and make your plans accordingly!

  44. Bauxite on April 10, 2024 at 8:40 am said:
    Frankly, given the brutality of 10/7, I am surprised that Hamas was able to produce even the few hostages that they did. Hamas isn’t really running a military strategy in this war, it is running a propaganda strategy. Releasing hostages who had been raped or tortured would have made it just a little more difficult for the starry-eyed utopians in the west to suspend their disbelief.

    It seems to me that Hamas followed a strategy that hostages were set aside to be treated better for future release. The one female hostage who is talking about her rape seems to have only been raped once based upon what I’ve read.

    At one of the bomb shelters, one of the Hamas fighters pulled aside a female captive and said “she’s for rape”.

  45. Schrodinger’s hostages are just as valuable to Hamas as known, live hostages, I think. So I wouldn’t expect any honest accounts of their numbers.

  47. who is already chortling with glee over what he is calling “Israel’s major defeat” in Gaza
    ==
    That’s called wishcasting.

  48. It seems to me that Hamas followed a strategy that hostages were set aside to be treated better for future release.
    ==
    ‘Strategy’ is an odd term to describe Hamas’ actions at any point. Forty years ago, Martin Peretz offered that a crazed Arab is crazed in the particular ways of his culture. “He is intoxicated by language, cannot discern fantasy from reality, and salves himself with a momentarily pleasing but ultimately ineffectual act of bloodlust”.

  49. Art Deco:

    Yes, sykes is an excellent example of a place where many on the left and some on the right meet: Israel-hatred and in some cases Jew-hatred.

    I wrote this response to one of sykes’ comments back in March:

    Whether or not Sykes actually believes the Hamas figures he cites is an open question. But he will use them if he can attack Israel and Jews with them. That’s the ground on which many on the left and some on the far right come together.

  50. Once the international Left, led by our government, forces Israel into an ill-advised “cease fire” in exchange for hostages, Hamas will announce that the Jews forced them to kill the hostages, long ago.

  51. neo
    “bob sykes” is one of a few neo Nazi types who infest Instapundit. Why Glenn Reynolds does not block them is a question I often ask of myself.

  52. BrooklynBoy:

    If I’m not mistaken, Instapundit has disqus comments. That is a way to outsource comments and many high traffic blogs use it, because policing comments personally is a huge task for bloggers. So they outsource it. But plenty of people know how to get around disqus. If they’re banned by disqus itself (which sometimes happens), they come back with another account. It’s a big problem, I think.

    There are a few rabid Jew-haters there. Or maybe it’s just one person with a series of sock puppets.

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