Hostage deal?
For weeks I’ve been seeing rumors of a hostage deal, but this news sounds a bit more solid. On the other hand, it would be a good idea for the Israeli government to pretend to be negotiating a deal, in order to have Hamas keep the hostages alive until (hopefully) rescue can be achieved.
There are several problems with a deal, of course. One is that any prisoner exchange can endanger Israel further by letting go some dangerous people and by making future hostages more valuable to take. Another is that any ceasefire is counterproductive to the offensive. Still another is the fact that Hamas apparently does not hold all the hostages – other groups and even individuals may have some.
But anyway, here’s the report:
A senior Israeli official on Tuesday outlined further details of a tentative hostage deal with Hamas, which Israeli cabinet members are reportedly voting on late Tuesday, according to NBC.
The source told NBC that the prospective agreement would release around 50 women and children hostages over the course of four days, during which time Israel would temporarily pause attacks to ensure the safe passage of the hostages. Israel would also agree to halt drone flights for a certain amount of time each day, though the source said Israel believes it can maintain oversight of Gaza without them.
Under the current work-in-progress deal, the official confirmed that Israel would also release 150 Palestinian women and child prisoners who assisted in terror attacks but did not directly kill Israelis themselves. Families of the victims of the convicted prisoners would have a 24-hour opportunity to appeal their release to the Israeli Supreme Court. …
At this stage, Israel is only negotiating for Israeli hostages, according to the source. Other countries will have to conduct their own talks with Hamas to release their respective hostages. The official noted that many of the American hostages have dual-citizenship and therefore qualify as Israeli hostages.
Time will tell.
ADDENDUM: (Hat tip: commenter “Miguel cervantes”) Netanyahu made a statement:
The return of hostages is a top, “sacred priority and I am committed to it,” Netanyahu says.
“Before us is a difficult decision but the right one,” he adds. “We will not rest until everyone is returned. The war has stages and the return of the hostages will have stages.”
More at the link.
In the open thread huxley asked for details on my opinion that this “seems like a mistake.” I’ll do so here.
First, I agree entirely with this guy:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/case-full-israeli-victory-over-hamas-gaza-207129
And sooner is better than later. As neo points out above, There are several problems with a deal,.. any ceasefire is counterproductive to the offensive.
Israel’s victory over Hamas needs to be as complete and overwhelming as possible, and that includes speed. If it can be done in 14 weeks rather than 16 it should be. A great deal of mayhem can occur in those two weeks. Israel’s enemies – our enemies – are watching.
I am of course speculating, the fog of war and all, but Israel seems to have Hamas on its heels. They should keep it that way – Hamas reacting to the IDFs actions, never given a chance to plan, regroup, or change course.
I could go on, but I hate overly long posts, so that will do for now.
If Israel managed to kill every single member of Hamas, it would not even in the slightest lessen Islamist hate of the Jewish people.
If Israel managed to kill every single member of Hezbollah, it would not even in the slightest lessen Islamist hate of the Jewish people.
If Israel managed to kill every single Iranian militant, it would not even in the slightest lessen Islamist hate of the Jewish people.
If Islamists managed to murder every Jew on earth, it would not even in the slightest lessen Islamist determination to make the entire world Muslim.
A world in which only a few Christian slaves exist.
It is for all of them a theological imperative. A direct command from Allah.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran’s Mullahs and Wahhabi Imams are simply Islam’s proxy agents.
That is the reality we face and a refusal to face it is a decision to allow the evil that is Islam to eventually rule over all.
Another critical piece of the deal: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-tells-cabinet-hostage-deal-to-include-red-cross-access-to-remaining-abductees/
I would hope that if Israel stops the drone overflights that the US could provide some satellite imaging. Don’t know how good it would be though.
Only 50 hostages is not very many really. 20%. I would demand that proof of life of the remaining hostages.
Some intelligence could also be gleaned from the released hostages.
Mike Plaiss:
Thanks. I figured your assessment was something like that.
I would hope that if Israel stops the drone overflights that the US could provide some satellite imaging. Don’t know how good it would be though.
SHIREHOME:
Ten years ago I idly used Google Maps to check a friend’s address in SoCal. To my surprise I saw a still photo of my friend mowing his front lawn! A bit blurry, but I could tell he was wearing a straw hat.
I’m bothered by the drone flight interruption, but I suspect the IDF can do OK without the drone imaging.
I’ve had a lot of respect for Netanyahu, but doing a hostage deal on anything less than complete and draconian terms against Hamas does not bode well for the future.
Count me ‘agin it’.
Too late
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/172706
8149231861928
Well I don’t like this.
https://www.danielpipes.org/22025/israel-has-quickly-reverted-to-its-bad-old
“Never,” as in “Never again,” sure didn’t last long.
The people of Israel have been red-pilled by decades of violent evidence that Oslo and coexistence are failed fantasies – the political and military establishment less so.
Which is natural. You can’t turn an aircraft carrier on a dime, and these people’s egos are invested in the conceptual framework – in Hebrew, the “konseptziah” – of Oslo and the New Middle East.
There have been constant leaks about conflict between the center-right government and the military about the advisability of house-to-house fighting as in previous Oslo responses.
The talkbacks on Israeli news sites are overwhelmingly opposed to hostage deals and cease-fires. It did not help that the “parents of hostages” movement was hijacked from the start by the same hard-Left groups that tried all this year to bring down the duly elected government with threats and civil unrest…. we also remember previous selfish, morale-destroying pushes by families of other hostages to get their kids back “at any price” – resulting in terrorists repeating their violence after release.
Here’s my translation of the comments to the article detailing the terms of the deal on the IsraelHayom daily newspaper site:
Out of 236 only some return? Even 200 would not be enough… where are the soldiers and female soldiers who were kidnapped? Where are the other 40 women and girls who were kidnapped? Disgraceful darned cabinet.
This Friday the terrorists will celebrate the release in East Jerusalem and give out sweets, and the Israelis (who supported the deal) will watch it on television, open-mouthed with shock.
… and we will watch in tears wondering if the rest are still alive. What a dishonorable decision!
To all purposes the war is now over, the next deal Hamas will demand our withdrawal.
Without letting the army destroy all of Gaza, which is what it started to do, there is no continued existence for our people.. All the terrorists in the world are organizing to kidnap us, every citizen in this country after this despicable deal is a target to be kidnapped..
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There were a few comments in favor of the deal, such as:
If Hamas does not abide by the agreement and our children are not released, the war will continue and become even stronger in a moment, and this will increase our legitimacy before the Western world and also for ourselves… But it seems that there is a real possibility to rescue dozens of our children and if we don’t take advantage of it then there is no purpose to the existence of the Jewish state and certainly not the army that is supposed to protect our children.
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I have commented before here on the cultural divide in this situation – how this attack grabbed the attention of Left-wingers because “right-minded” progressives were slaughtered…. unfortunately this is also expressed in the debate about the hostage situation, since previously Left-leaning parents pushed for awful deals that in fact draw further attacks and kidnap attempts. As one commenter wrote:
How wonderful for the Lefties from the kibbutzim, whom (the establishment) is working to release them from captivity – leaving the rest of the hostages to bewail their fate, that they have ineffective leaders.
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I could quote similar comments from websites like ynet.co.il – the website of the mass-market daily Yehiot Aharonot.
I think bibi is doing the best he can, with the pressures from the sock puppets in the administration, i’m sure samantha power is pushing her modest proposal,
this is the cost of a stolen election, which bibi reluctantly acknowledged,
This is a terrible thing to say but I will say it: you have only two choices 1) The hostages are dead ( or might as well be) or you try to get out as many alive as you can, you make plans accordingly.