Home » Open thread 3/23/23

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Open thread 3/23/23 — 76 Comments

  1. The Fed punched the tar baby again. I’m sure a few more punches and the Fed will win.

    Related — we have a massive data quality problem. The calculation of inflation is so stupid it will give you a headache. But the jobs numbers are just as bad. Same for temperature data or pretty much any other data government provides.

  2. The Fed punched the tar baby again. I’m sure a few more punches and the Fed will win.
    ==
    Your alternative to the Federal Reserve’s approach to containing inflation is just what?
    ==
    Related — we have a massive data quality problem. The calculation of inflation is so stupid it will give you a headache. But the jobs numbers are just as bad. Same for temperature data or pretty much any other data government provides.
    ==
    I’m sure all the agencies in question can improve their performance by consulting you.

  3. I’m watching the Nebraska Legislature this morning and there is one conclusion: The Democrats are totally and completely insane.

    Wild personal attacks. Emotional arguments. Irrational. And it’s all about protecting children from sex change surgery and drugs until age 19. This bill passed in Iowa and many other states.

    The Dems will filibuster every single bill it they don’t win today.

  4. Nebraska state senator Carol Blood claimed that sex isn’t determined by X and Y chromosomes.

    I kid you not.

    Insane.

  5. The depth of the insanity of the Left is on full display today in the Nebraska Unicameral.

    My favorite: Rely on the science and experts! In my lifetime, the medical community was all in favor of lobotomies and giving Thamloidide (sp) to people. Those experts were wrong.

  6. Art Deco,

    Are you ignorant or stupid? I’m not the first to point out the pathetic nature of the data.

    Why don’t you educate yourself? Start with the intellectual effort that went into the derivation of the formula for what constitutes the federal poverty line. Impressive stuff.

    Check out Watts Up With That and the quality of the temperature data.

    Learn about the birth/death model and the job numbers calculations at the end of the Obama administration.

    Barry Sternlicht was on CNBC this morning discussing the ridiculous way that housing inflation is calculated and why it is causing the Fed to screw up so badly.

    If you spent more time learning and less time being an ass, perhaps you’d be better informed. Try it. I’m rooting for you.

    As for the Fed’s pathetic performance on inflation — if you have no idea why they’ve embarrassed themselves, I doubt anyone can help you. Your problem clearly isn’t “transitory”.

  7. A coal fired plant vs a photovoltaic panel. But how is the symmetry preserved when the energy production is local (or stored), but the pollution is shared (or shifted)?

    With respect to drag (or resistance): a Chevy truck vs a Ferrari Fiero. But how is the symmetry preserved when a rock and feather accelerate at the same rate? Perhaps we are considering the wrong quality (e.g. incomplete or insufficient characterization) and injecting brown (“black”) matter only underlies our misunderstanding.

  8. “And it’s all about protecting children from sex change surgery and drugs until age 19.”

    I assume you’re referring to Cavanaugh: Omaha Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh started her filibuster in late February after a Republican introduced the bill to outlaw hormone treatments, puberty blockers and gender reassignment surgery for those under 18. “If this legislature collectively decides that legislating hate against children is our priority, then I am going to make it painful — painful for everyone,” the married mother of three threatened fellow lawmakers.

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/22/nebraska-dem-calls-ban-on-kids-gender-therapy-genocide/

    Meanwhile, in nearby Colorado, a trans flight attendant made famous by a diversity advertising campaign in 2020 committed suicide on March 20. Although she had credited her airline at that time with “helping [her] transition,” she stated in early 2023 that “I came to realize I work a meaningless job for a company that doesn’t value me as an employee. I had my heart destroyed, I lost my nice little home and had to downsize significantly and start over . . . .”

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/23/trans-flight-attendant-famed-for-united-ad-dies-by-suicied/

  9. Cornhead, thanks for the Nebraska updates. I continue to be appalled at the number of people who think that children and adolescents should have these irreversible procedures and treatments before they are old enough to clearly understand what this will do to their lives.

  10. More crying from Sen. Jen Day. Threat from mental health therapists that if LB 574 passes, their child patients, “will commit suicide… before the end of the school year.”

    “This bill will potentially kill these children.” Kill. Wow!

  11. Extremist Democrats in the Nebraska Unicameral should look at PA Cat’s link, above, about the “trans woman” flight attendant who committed suicide, or the sad reports about the young person known as Jazz who now says he will never feel like himself in his own body, having been mutilated in his teens. These kids in Nebraska are distressed, and attempting to change their sexes is unlikely to end their distress.

  12. worth a look
    https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/pushback-doctors-blacklisted-by-government-for-disagreeing-on-its-covid-mandate-policies-now-fighting-back/

    “Eight high-ranking doctors, many who were censored and blacklisted by the government and big social media outlets for daring to disagree with the government’s lockdown, masking,, and COVID jab mandates, have now issued a detailed report, dubbed the Norfolk Group report, outlining the many errors of those policies, as well as offering what the scientists call “a blueprint” for moving forward.”

  13. Fourth state senator crying on the floor. New Nebraska record.

    “In the 1950s and 1960s, thalidomide was used to treat morning sickness during pregnancy. But it was found to cause disabilities in the babies born to those taking the drug.”

    But the drug companies and doctors were fine with this. Experts!

  14. Within its field, science is remarkably good at getting the right answer, eventually.

    Policy, however, often needs an answer right now. The problem is that, although the “science of eventually” is most likely going to be right, the “science of right now,” for various reasons, is a crapshoot.

    The “science of eventually” was too late for victims of COVID policy. I hope it arrives very soon for the kids and adults who are the subjects of the trans craze.

  15. The Let Them Grow Act passed the first round. Two more votes.

    Dems have promised to “burn this session to the ground” because they lost this vote.

  16. There is no science involved in policy making circles itsalchemy and divining (not real things) this is why everything is falling apart

  17. Are you ignorant or stupid? I’m not the first to point out the pathetic nature of the data.
    ==
    Well, there’s a business school graduate (in New Hampshire, I think) who fancies he produces better data at his desk than the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He has a constituency, drawn, I suspect, from the pool of people who fancy Lee Harvey Oswald was framed.
    ==
    Check out Watts Up With That and the quality of the temperature data.
    ==
    I’m checking out your mental kitchen sink.

  18. stan and someone he thinks is an ass, for questioning “stan-ness.”

    Self awareness is a foreign concept in stan.

  19. Kate–

    Here’s another news item about a trans “woman” boasting about winning cyclocross races ahead of biological women: “A transgender cyclist proudly said she felt like a ‘superhero’ while winning her latest women’s race in New York — just days after a former champ quit the sport in anger at losing to another trans rider. . . . Thomas’ win came just days after champion cyclocross rider Hannah Arensman confirmed she was quitting in anger over the issue.”

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/23/transgender-cyclist-wins-nyc-womens-race/

    There’s a photo of Thomas at the link lifting “heavy a@$ weights” that certainly doesn’t flatter xer.

  20. Temper tantrum (i recall crazy earnie chambers was from nebraska, lenora felanis partner in crime)

  21. My guess is that it the Higgs field answer is that it involves Relativity, and the ability of mass to affect interactions around it. Similar to why we have Black Holes and cosmic lenses.

  22. “O half moon—
    Half-brain, luminosity—
    Negro, masked like a white,
    Your dark
    Amputations crawl and appall—
    Spidery, unsafe.
    What glove
    What leatheriness
    Has protected
    Me from that shadow—
    The indelible buds,
    Knuckles at shoulder-blades, the
    Faces that
    Shove into being, dragging
    The lopped
    Blood-caul of absences.
    All night I carpenter
    A space for the thing I am given,
    A love
    Of two wet eyes and a screech.
    White spit
    Of indifference!
    The dark fruits revolve and fall.
    The glass cracks across,
    The image
    Flees and aborts like dropped mercury”

    Thalidomide by Sylvia Plath.

  23. He’s saying that assuming the Higgs field allows a simple way to show where the masses of particles come from and still keep the other equations consistent.

    I suppose it’s somewhat analogous to how the view of time and space in special relativity keeps the Maxwell equations consistent without postulating an ether to explain what the speed of light is relative to (an ether which had to have very strange mechanical properties and resisted all attempts at detection). One of the key assumptions of special relativity is to take the Maxwell equations at face value–they say what the speed of light in vacuum is and they don’t have a mechanism in there to allow it to be relative to other things, so why not just believe that and see how far it gets you. Pretty far, it turns out.

    I don’t believe anyone has ever shown that’s the Higgs field is the only way to derive mass, maybe they have, but even if they did that wouldn’t make the Higgs field real, only convenient.

    But my experience with Greene’s popularizations is that he presents the views of his school of thought as though they are fact, and I don’t think that’s the right way to popularize; if there’s divergence among experts I think popularizers have a duty to fairly represent it.

  24. n.n.,

    I wonder the same. Newton didn’t consider time was a dimension so he modeled a physics that worked nearly perfectly with a three dimensional Universe. When our measurements got accurate enough to find flaws with that near perfection we inserted “fudge factors” to make the maths work until Einstein added a fourth dimension.

    But our current measurements find unexpected results with the current model. Are dark matter and dark energy fudge factors that will be displaced when we learn something fundamental is missing from the current model; just as space/time was missing from Newton’s?

  25. Governments will generally publish only data that makes the government look good, or makes the people running the government look good, or makes the policies the government or its masters advocate look good. As soon as politics is involved in any data, the data becomes corrupted.

    And, there isn’t a fix for this- once the politics is in the mix, it can’t be unmixed. Ward’s Law of Political Entropy.

  26. Governments will generally publish only data that makes the government look good, or makes the people running the government look good, or makes the policies the government or its masters advocate look good.
    ==
    BLS data hasn’t been making the Biden junta look good.

  27. @Rufus:Are dark matter and dark energy fudge factors that will be displaced when we learn something fundamental is missing from the current model; just as space/time was missing from Newton’s?

    Tons of work has been done on those lines, which hasn’t got anyone anywhere yet, but I don’t think it’s been shown to be impossible.

    Postulating new kinds of matter has been successful in the past, for example positrons, neutrinos, missing elements in the periodic table. It’s also been unsuccessful too.

  28. “Policy, however, often needs an answer right now.”

    What if I were to tell you that “Biden” is succeeding beyond “his” wildest dreams?
    And Soros.
    And Schwab.
    And Gates…et al.
    This is not to say that they will finally triumph, but they’re sitting pretty at the moment.
    Their carefully laid plans are bearing fruit (albeit of the toxic variety) in their efforts to sow mayhem and plant the teeth of dragons.
    One hopes that their successes, such as they are, will make them a tad overconfident…even as their adversaries, realizing what’s at stake, decide to, finally, wake up.

  29. Brian Greene does a little over a minute on this. Arvin Ash thirteen minutes. And here’s Leonard Suskind at over an hour.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=JqNg819PiZY&feature=share

    I haven’t even watched this one yet – it’s on my todo list. But I’ve watched several of his Stanford lectures and I think they are fantastic. I know there are several serious science folks here and thought some may be interested.

  30. The motion theory of space-time. At absolute zero, there is no mass, there is no energy, there is no “big bang”. Oh, well. Science is a logical domain, a philosophy, and practice in the near-domain with cause.

  31. Campaign pledges, Democratic Party style:
    “Vote for me for mayor of Chicago and I will ENSURE that your kids’ll get even less of an education than they’re getting right now.
    “THAT’s a PROMISE!
    “My PROMISE.
    “AND YOU CAN COUNT ON IT!”
    “Why Can Only 6 Of Every 100 Chicago Black Students Do Math At Grade Level? Chicago Mayoral Candidate Johnson Offers Some Clues”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-can-only-6-every-100-chicago-black-students-do-math-grade-level-chicago-mayoral

    The Fifth Freedom, in 21st-century America, appears to be “Freedom from education”…

    File under: Proclaim hysteria (and ignorance) throughout the land…

  32. Kari Lake hangs on by a thread. I said this at the time that the judge ignored and mischaracterized her claims that Maricopa County did not follow their signature verification rules.

    While it dismissed six of Lake’s seven claims, the Supreme Court determined that both the appeals and trial courts erred in dismissing her claim regarding signature verification. Both courts had concluded that, since Lake was challenging Maricopa County’s signature verification processes that were in place prior to the November election, she should have brought the challenge before she lost the election instead of waiting until afterward.

    The Supreme Court agreed with Lake that the appellate and trial courts mischaracterized her claim, and that she was not actually challenging Maricopa County’s signature verification process but its failure to adhere to its own signature verification requirements.

    “Contrary to the ruling of the trial court and the Court of Appeals Opinion, this signature verification challenge is to the application of the policies, not to the policies themselves,” the Supreme Court wrote.

    Lake and her lawyers have alleged that Maricopa County accepted and tabulated early voting ballots that had signatures that did not match the ones on file for the voter.”

    It’s possible the lower courts will still refuse to let her audit the signatures. Until the signatures are compared– and that means access to the voter signature on file and the digital record of the signature on the envelope, we won’t know the extent of the malfeasance.

    https://www.azmirror.com/2023/03/22/supreme-court-dismisses-all-but-one-of-kari-lakes-election-claims/

  33. “BLS data hasn’t been making the Biden junta look good.”

    You sure about? Perhaps it is the best they can do with what they have. To do more might make more people doubt them than believe them.

  34. RE: The clip above.

    How is the average person, who is not deeply versed in science and mathematics, not to mention a decision maker–someone involved in setting pubic policy and allocating resources–supposed to understand and make decisions about whether or not to allocate resources to these scientists based on theories which these policy makers do not have the scientific background to/cannot understand, especially when there is apparently no confirmatory evidence in terms of some actual, understandable, real world results?

    Is a lot of theorizing just a lot of bafflegab?

    P.S.–While I admit I don’t really understand what Greene is saying, I am even more mystified when, for instance, Eric Weinstein tries to explain his version of a “Theory of Everything,” his theory of “Geometric Unity.”

  35. When you’re trying to crash a country, it doesn’t get more successful than this:
    ==
    If you want to take disaster porn seriously, that’s your choice.

  36. @Snow on Pine:How is the average person, who is not deeply versed in science and mathematics, not to mention a decision maker–someone involved in setting pubic policy and allocating resources–supposed to understand and make decisions about whether or not to allocate resources to these scientists…

    If it were up to me, the government would not be involved in anything the average citizen could not understand.

    The current system is that these decisions are delegated to government employees who are themselves scientists, and most government-funded research is carried out at universities and overseen by university faculty, who the universities thought were qualified and competent or wouldn’t have hired them.

    It’s not a perfect system by any means, and like I said I think science is better off not funded by the Federal government at all.

    Occasionally powerful people will intervene to directly fund their hobby horses: for the Dems an example was Senator Tom Harkin and for the Rs it was Senator Orrin Hatch.

    Is a lot of theorizing just a lot of bafflegab?

    Not in math, physics or chemistry, no, though sometimes practical applications take decades or centuries to follow the theory. A good new theory will make predictions consistent with all that is already known, will predict new discoveries, clear up old puzzles…. It’s a pretty tall order.

  37. “How is the average person, who is not deeply versed in science and mathematics, not to mention a decision maker–someone involved in setting pubic policy and allocating resources–supposed to understand and make decisions about whether or not to allocate resources to these scientists”

    Just give them the money. It’s that simple. We’re the richest society in Human history. Just give them the money with virtually no strings attached. No expectation of any practical results. Just give them the money.

    Will we wind up with plenty of waste and fraud? Sure. We’ll also be liberating the greatest, most inquisitive minds from the shackles of corporate or academic servitude.

    Mike

  38. “If you want to take disaster porn seriously, that’s your choice.”

    I think a society goes bankrupt much like an individual. “Gradually, then suddenly” as Hemmingway put it. You can look like a really smart guy for a long time pooh-poohing disaster porn, until you suddenly become the stupidest person who ever lived.

    Mike

  39. It’s unfortunate today’s scientific community has shown itself unable to prevent politicized groupthink as well as to defend the ideals of the scientific method and freedom of thought.

    I’m rather bummed by this development.

  40. I’m reading the first Harry Potter in French, which is to say I’m reading it s.l.o.w.l.y. It’s better than I remembered.

    I got through the first 2 1/2 books in English back when the little toy dog was new, but I was grumpily comparing it to “Lord of the Rings” and I was too busy to give it a chance anyway.

    I don’t care for the Chosen One myth underneath the books. Too many kids believe their real parents aren’t good enough to be their True Parents.

    But that aside, Harry Potter is a rollicking, charming children’s story with imagination to burn and some decent morals. The first movie is quite wonderful too.

    I shake my head about much of what mass culture does to kids, but I think we lucked out with J.K. Rowling and her books, then films.

    I’m not surprised that Rowling now stands with Jordan Peterson as a prominent person of courage taking on the Woke.

  41. “BLS data hasn’t been making the Biden junta look good.”

    Just think how “Biden” would be looking if the BLS wasn’t fudging the numbers, leaning on the scale, using fraudulent weights…. Lying.

    (All for a good cause, though, no doubt…)

    P.S. How’s that 401K working out?

  42. Oopsies….
    “Deutsche Bank Bloodbath Reignites Global Bank Crisis Fears”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-bloodbath-reignites-global-bank-crisis-fears

    + Bonus:
    “Markets To Yellen: ‘F**k Off’ —
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bitcoin-bullion-soar-bank-bloodbath-builds
    Absolutely shocking. Just because she’s been a key “Biden” figure working tirelessly, doing her very best to enable America to…go bankrupt?
    All people of good will should hope that such insulting disrespect being shown to the Wise Owlita is merely transitory…

  43. I note the increasing reports of retractions of research results in various main line scientific journals because the results–it turned out–where not reproducible, were prettied up and falsified, and some of these phony results, especially in the field of medicine, had real world consequences as public policies and treatment regimes were set, and those who suffered from this major disease or that were led down a false road, to undertake treatments that were not effective.

    I presume this epidemic of falsified results is prompted by the scramble for tenure, prestige, and/or funding.

  44. And from the “History Never Repeats but It Occasionally Rhymes” File…(cross-posted with “Let Them Eat Quiche”)…
    ‘ “Macron ‘feared a Marie Antoinette moment’ over King Charles’ visit: ‘Humiliated’ French president cancelled Royal state Paris trip because he ‘was concerned about symbolism’ over lavish banquet at Palace of Versailles as protesters clash on the streets ‘—
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11898359/King-Charles-postpone-trip-France-amid-violent-protests.html.

    + Bonus:
    “France Strikes: Rioting Feared In Latest Pension Reform Protests”—
    https://blazingcatfur.ca/2023/03/23/france-strikes-rioting-feared-in-latest-pension-reform-protests/

  45. P.S.–Given that according to the article linked to below * Americans annually spend $500 million dollars just on Halloween costumes for pets alone–can this stupendous amount be correct?–I ‘d image that higher priority scientific research should be given the funding it needs.

    We are truly advancing–faster and faster –towards becoming an “Idiotocracy.”

    * See https://www.abc15.com/entertainment/americans-spend-nearly-half-a-billion-dollars-on-halloween-costumes-for-their-pets

  46. Barry Meislin, France is such a mess. Riots in the streets because people are being asked to work to age 64 instead of 62. Les pauvres.

  47. It’s hard to know if my impression is correct, but if you look at what’s on YouTube it seems as if quite a few people are preferring/ valuing their “fur children” over having real children of their own.

  48. @Snow on Pine:I note the increasing reports of retractions of research results in various main line scientific journals…

    It’s not science generally. The retractions and replication problems affect some sciences way more than others. Physics, chemistry, math, hardly at all. Medicine, psychology, social sciences, quite a bit.

    To oversimplify, some disciplines rely heavily on trying to tease small effects out of very noisy data, and the statistical rules of thumb that have been relied on are not sufficient to do that reliably. The data is noisy and the effects are small not because scientists in general are lazy or incompetent. It’s because studying anything alive, or anything involving human behavior, is very difficult, because humans and other living systems are incredibly complex.

    Some disciplines do not labor under this handicap. There has never been a randomized, controlled, double-blind study to see if parachutes work better than placebo. It would make no sense for physicists to take that approach.

  49. All of my comments here over the years are, in general, a description of a society straying ever further from the right path, and descending into ever more chaos, devision, and decadence.

  50. Don’t worry, the adults are surely in charge…

    “Yellen Convenes Emergency Financial Stability Meeting On Friday As Banking Crisis Explodes”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yellen-convenes-emergency-financial-stability-meeting-friday-banking-crisis-explodes

    What are the odds that after deliberating for hours on this latest “Act-of-God”/”Who Could Possibly Have Expected Things to Get This Bad This Quickly?” crisis, they’ll decide (with a straight ‘n sober face) that it’s ALL Trump’s fault…and go home for some “well-earned” R&R?

    File under: Quick! We NEED a HYUGE distraction! Get Bragg on the phone and TELL that idiot to stop futzing around and get the Orange-Haired Monster ON THE STAND…NOW!!

  51. Americans annually spend $500 million dollars just on Halloween costumes for pets alone–can this stupendous amount be correct?–I
    ==
    That amounts to about $3.84 per household annually. Get a grip.

  52. Just think how “Biden” would be looking if the BLS wasn’t fudging the numbers, leaning on the scale, using fraudulent weights…. Lying.
    ==
    Assumes facts not in evidence.

  53. @Art Deco:That amounts to about $3.84 per household annually. Get a grip.

    Well played…

    BOSWELL. ‘Sir Alexander Dick tells me, that he remembers having a thousand people in a year to dine at his house: that is, reckoning each person as one, each time that he dined there.’

    JOHNSON. ‘That, Sir, is about three a day.’

    BOSWELL. ‘How your statement lessens the idea.’

    JOHNSON. ‘That, Sir, is the good of counting. It brings every thing to a certainty, which before floated in the mind indefinitely.’

  54. Art Deco–It’s a matter of priorities.

    The fact remains, and the point is, that that is an expenditure of $500 million dollars per year that could have been spent on any number of objectively more worthwhile projects.

    Oh, I don’t know, things like medical research on any number of diseases and conditions which cause untold human misery and debilitation, massively beefing up Fentanyl interdiction and incarceration efforts, advancing current research on electronic systems to give the blind some form of sight back, advancing work to make it possible for paralyzed people to have a possibility of nerve regrowth and thus possibly walking again, advancing research on using 3-D printers to print new major human organs, improving the conditions of kids in various “children’s services” situations, more concentrated teaching of literacy and fundamental mathematical skills, serious job training programs for the unemployed, even helping to advance efforts towards colonizing the Moon and Mars, thus giving the human race an increased chance of surviving in a violent and uncertain Universe–see the Chicxulub impact crater.).

    You could fund a hell of a lot of promising startups with $500 million per year.

  55. The fact remains, and the point is, that that is an expenditure of $500 million dollars per year that could have been spent on any number of objectively more worthwhile projects.
    ==
    It’s a minor consumer expenditure for people who find that sort of thing amusing. Try growing a sense of humor.

  56. “. . . that could have been spent . . .”

    Does a more succinct and better expression of the spirit of socialism occur to us? I mean, who, after all, is doing the “spending”, eh?

  57. It’s hard to know if my impression is correct, but if you look at what’s on YouTube it seems as if quite a few people are preferring/ valuing their “fur children” over having real children of their own.
    ==
    Some people’s children are grown, some people are estranged from their children, some people had medical problems and couldn’t have children, some people made choices in their young adult years which came back to bite them, and some people just had bad luck with relationships. You’ll find some people who are ‘childless by choice’ as well. That’s regrettable. You are just making too much of this.

  58. Disposable, discretionary income spent on Halloween, or porn, or drugs, or alcohol, or hunting and fishing. You know, if only I could control how everyone else spends “the countrie’s” money. IMO spending on the first and the last are different than the middle three, but that’s just me.

    Forcing me to spend money on abortion services, or the transmogrificaton of children and adults (via Obamacare), through Federal taxes is another matter.

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