Putin orders fuller mobilization; many Russian men flee if they can
Putin is planning the tried-and-true Russian tactic of throwing a lot of its male citizens into the fray and overwhelming the enemy by numbers. One problem, though, is that – unlike, for example, the Nazi invasion of WWII, when Russia was fighting a defensive war that was obviously a struggle for its own existence against an aggressive and implacable foe – this time it’s Russia that is the aggressor, although Putin’s rhetoric says otherwise.
Putin has tried to minimize his action in Ukraine by never calling it a war. But now he wants Russia on an obvious war footing, and it’s not going over so well:
Putin declared on Wednesday that 300,000 reservists would be drafted, as Moscow seeks to replenish depleted forces after a successful counter-offensive from Kyiv this month. The move is set to change the scope of Russia’s invasion from an offensive fought largely by volunteers to one that embroils a larger swath of its population.
The announcement unleashed a scramble for some Russians, with social media chatter on platforms like Telegram exploding with people frantically trying to figure out how to get seats in vehicles headed to the borders, with some even discussing going on bicycle.
Long lines of traffic formed at land border crossings into several countries, according to video footage. Images on Kazakh media websites appeared to show vehicles backed up near the Russia-Kazakhstan border. In one, posted by Kazakh media outlet Tengri News, a person can be heard saying their vehicle has been “at a standstill for 10 hours” in Russia’s Saratov region, as they try to make their way to Kazakhstan.
“Endless cars. Everyone is running. Everyone is on the run from Russia,” the person in the video can be heard saying. CNN cannot independently verify the videos.
Well, not everyone. But plenty of people. And not every nearby country is willing to take them:
The Czech Republic will not issue humanitarian visas to Russian citizens fleeing mobilisation orders, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on Thursday…
His stance was in line with that of fellow European Union members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, who said on Wednesday that they would not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow’s mobilisation of troops…
Finland said on Thursday it was considering barring most Russians from entering the country as traffic across the border from its eastern neighbour “intensified” following Putin’s mobilisation order.
And in Russia itself, over 700 protesters have been “detained.”
Men from the provinces are being mobilized first:
In Buryatia, a mostly rural region wrapped around the southern shore of Lake Baikal, the mobilisation has seen some men drafted regardless of their age, military record or medical history, according to interviews with local residents, rights activists and even statements by local officials.
Buryat rights activists suspect that the burden of the mobilisation – and the war itself – is falling on poor, ethnic minority regions to avoid triggering popular anger in the capital Moscow, which is 6,000 km (3,700 miles) away.
I have long avoided prognostications on the Ukraine war except to say that it will almost certainly go on for a long time and that it has potentially dangerous and wide-reaching consequences, some of which are already coming to pass (Europe’s energy and economic crisis, for example). I will add that this move of Putin’s certainly doesn’t reduce those dangerous possibilities, and it is most likely to increase the human cost. There is no dearth of people willing to say what it all means, but they disagree with each other and I think they are mostly just blowing smoke.
However, here’s an example that seems to be describing some rather obvious truths of the situation at the moment:
Even if the Kremlin manages to add several hundred thousand people to the roster of the armed forces, the Army would have to house and train them, a mammoth effort. In the best-case scenario, that will take months, by which time it may be too late to affect the trajectory of the war—not least because these new draftees will not be particularly motivated or trained in advanced modern weaponry. “If they had announced mobilization in March, by now they could have had, let’s say, fifty thousand new troops prepared—but they didn’t do that,” the person told me.
When describing varying levels of support for the war in Russia, the political philosopher Greg Yudin splits the country into three groups: “dissenters,” “radicals,” and “laymen.” That is to say, those who openly oppose the war, those who cheer it on, and those who do their best not to pay attention, respectively. As Yudin argues, the laymen represent the majority of Russians, who have tried to maintain their private lives while avoiding the entire topic of Ukraine and the war. “It is obviously deplorable but the upside of it is that these people are completely unwilling to participate in war actively in any way,” Yudin tweeted, in mid-September. Putin’s strategy had been to muddle through the war, offering the laymen life as usual in Russia’s big cities, and the radicals a historic battle against Nazis and a Western machine hellbent on destroying Russia.
Mobilization, though, will put the illusions of the laymen under pressure, if it doesn’t blow them apart entirely. But, as Yudin told me, that will be a process that happens over time, and it is likely to take place on a personal rather than collective level. In other words, expect individual discontent, perhaps even sabotage, but not yet a revolution.
That’s the price of minimizing the war. It had the advantage of keeping the Russian population quiescent and mostly acquiescent. A large mobilization means that it will be very very difficult, if not impossible, to sustain that reassuring narrative.
I don’t know what it would take to make Putin give up this campaign, and I don’t think he will unless there’s a way to save face. I can’t even imagine what that way would be. He is in too deep and his rhetoric has described this war as a fight for Russia’s existence. Does he actually believe that? I certainly don’t know; perhaps. But one thing of which I’m pretty sure is that Putin sees it as a fight for his own political existence, and that’s a fight he’s determined to win.
My understanding is that it’s not a draft of civilian men but a call up of national reservists. Just as we did with Iraq and Afghanistan. If so, presumably those reservists have some degree of training.
As for “those who openly oppose the war, those who cheer it on, and those who do their best not to pay attention” reportedly in 1776, one third were neutral, one third sided with the British and one third revolted.
Ever watch “Cops” and they respond to a public disturbance between two trailer-trash girls and even as they try to get to each other they’re screaming some incoherent, self-serving pack of lies to the officer to justify themselves? That’s what trying to follow what’s going on in Ukraine is like.
The technology of war has moved on since many of the reservists were on active duty. Bringing them up to speed will take time. Instead, they may be given some time on the rifle range and sent to the front.
Oceania or eurasia
https://rmx.news/article/shock-eu-commission-president-threatens-italy-on-eve-of-election-says-brussels-has-tools-if-wrong-parties-win/
Geoffrey Britan:
Your analogy is wrong. It is true that Putin is calling up reserves, but there is no analogy to the reserves in the US. The reason is that Russia has conscription and the US has an all-volunteer military. That is a huge difference.
Another difference is the casualty rate in the two wars. Russian soldiers run more risk of dying in this war than US soldiers did in Iraq.
Also, Russian conscripts are in the military for one year, ordinarily. Not much training and not much experience, and for many of them the training happened long ago.
Yes we have directed the killing of their officer class the crushing of their economy we failed at the second but were successfup in the first
Most analysts think it will be six months before many of the reserves are actually trained and ready — assuming they are going to get any training. Even as cannon fodder they’d have to be able to operate some equipment. Plus, there’s the question of whether Russian has equipment for them.
Note also, which I have seen before, that the ethnic minority outlying provinces are bearing the brunt of this war.
CNN, Reuters, and the New Yorker – quite a lineup. I glance that way occasionally, but only to check the latest spin. They almost never surprise.
Meanwhile, Jordan Peterson recently weighed in.
Expect Russia to toss into the Ukraine conflict barely trained and poorly equipped soldiers. If they can lace up their boots, pull a gun trigger, toss a grenade and walk, off to the front lines they will go.
Let’s see; two weeks of training, three tops, and off to the front they go. Yep, on the job training; survival of the fittest.
If the do not have enough rifles, they will march unarmed soldiers to the front and have them retrieve rifles from their fallen comrades, and presto, the unarmed now armed. Won’t be the first time the Russian military has done this.
Don’t be surprised if scattered within the Russian soldiers sent off to Ukraine will be political commissars, whose role is to shoot dead any Russian soldier – from
buck private to general – not displaying enough aggression or not following orders.
The orders will be pretty basic. Move forward and don’t stop. If you stop, expect a bullet in the back of the head delivered by the trusty commissars.
Russia has never cared one iota about casualties – military or civilian – and don’t expect their govt. to start caring now.
If the populace begins agitating for peace, expect Putin to begin sending thousands of demonstrators to prison – or worse.
And expect the leaders of the anti-war movement to have a massive epidemic of falling out of tall buildings.
Any media outlet there will soon be spitting out govt. propaganda. Any “journalist” who utters the wrong message will …..you guessed it…….fall out of a tall building.
The greater the anti-war agitation, the greater the repression the Russian govt will use.
Russia has never had a shortage of folks willing to do the dirty work ordered by those in authority.
There is an infinitesimal chance Putin will be removed (by falling out the 10th floor window of a building??). But don’t count on that.
It’s not a Russian habit to defy authority.
First. I have no idea how old Huxley is, but if he were my age he would have become aware of the world outside of his immediate surroundings about the time of Pearl Harbor, and observed its effect on family and the nation at large. Then he would have noticed communist inspired aggression in Korea and how that impacted our society. Finally, as Communist inspired aggression threatened free nations aruond the world, with America being the primary bulwark. maybe all of the Yankee Doodle stuff would not have irritated him so much.
I won’t say much about the Catholic Church because I am not competent to do so. I have noticed over the course of my life that it is a source of comfort to many; but could also be harsh on those who did not adequately conform to the strictures of the hierarchy. (Of course, the Catholic Church has changed rather dramatically, and I will leave it at that.)
So far as the war in Ukraine, I only have regrets. Regret that Russia chose to invade a sovereign European neighbor, and strive to destroy its infrastructure, and terrorize the population into submission. If the civilized world cannot oppose such behavior with extraordinary vigor, then I am not sure it deserves to be called civilized.
Yes, Putin is horrible, but I feel like this is our decade’s version of “take out Saddam (Qaddafi, Mubarak, Assad) and then not give a damn about what comes next.”
Putin is a russian nationalist if he was a communist they would kiss his ring like they do xi. (Well maybe not his ring)
And Adolph was a national socialist who allied his state with the Communists in the USSR before atacking them 2 years later. Nationalism explains nothing, try despotism.
Interesting how history goes. From 19446 to 1991
we were trying to stop the spread of Communism. It was called the Cold War, but we fought hot wars in Korea, Vietnam, and lesser police actions in many other places (See this chart)
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/coldwar-ops.htm
We spent a lot of blood and treasure to keep Communism “over there.” What we didn’t expect was for it to burrow into our institutions and emerge 31 years after the Cold War ended.
The Vietnam War was unpopular, and many draft dodgers left the country for Canada, much as the young men in Russia are leaving for other countries today. North Vietnam was the client state of primarily the USSR, but China was a partner in the hostilities. It was a proxy war between the USSR and China versus the Allied nations, but primarily the U.S.
Now, the roles are reversed. Ukraine is the client state of the Western allies, primarily NATO, fighting a proxy war against Russia (the remnant of the USSR) and its partner China. Putin says he wants to stop the advance of NATO. But he has also written and spoken about his desire to reassemble the parts of the Russian Empire (USSR). So, he speaks out of both sides of his mouth. Mainly, he wants more power.
Will Putin become exhausted by what is apparently an unwinnable war? If the vote in the occupied territories is pro-Russian, will Putin call it good enough for now and take the status quo, while rebuilding his military for another go?
Resource wise, Putin has a strong hand and I expect he will keep the combat ops going through the winter to see how Europe holds up with a paucity of energy for heating.
Militarily, the Russians are a lot weaker than anyone imagined before the war began. Their logistics planning/execution has been poor, they can’t gain and hold ground because their tactics are outmoded, and the new smart weapons in the Ukrainians’ hands are taking a horrific toll. Just as we had to learn about guerrillla tactics in Vietnam, the Russians need to learn new tactics to cope with these new weapons. Either that or continue to pay hugely in blood and treasure.
Whatever decision Putin makes, we can be pretty sure that the Dems will:
1. Want to keep the war going. Spend, spend, spend.
2. Will not decide to drill, drill, drill.
3. Don’t understand the economics of their energy, tax, and spending policies.
4. Don’t care if Europeans freeze in the dark this winter.
5. If any peace or cease fire negotiations occur, they will probably screw them up.
Well you throw 80 billion into any effort you will get some results
My orwell reference stands the eu the cis and the chinese are differrent indegree not kind
The vaunted HIMARS can take out an artillery battery at a hundred miles or something. A couple of thousand guys spread out in two–man fighting positions is a different story.
“Oceania or eurasia”
Heh…
How ’bout this?
“Biden orders fuller mobilization; many Americans flee [blue states] if they can”?
Examples?
1.
“Biden CDC Awarded Millions To Soros-Funded Activist Group Suing DeSantis”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-cdc-awarded-millions-soros-funded-activist-group-suing-desantis
Because “he” can!
2.
“Will 2024 Be 1984?”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/will-2024-be-1984
(Seems to me one might well ask, “Will 2022 Be 1984?”… Or maybe, one doesn’t have to ask: it’s already happening….)
Key grafs:
‘From branding parents speaking out against critical race theory and sexual ideology in schools as terrorists to the Mar-a-Lago raid, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s radicalized Justice Department transforms pre-election political opposition into national security threats….
‘…The “threat to democracy” is shorthand for a threat to Democrats….’
3.
“Democrats Used A Massive Race Hoax To Gain Power”—
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/democrats_used_a_massive_race_hoax_to_gain_power.html
(Actually, they “used” a stolen election…but there are some “interesting” points made here…)
For starters….
NONETHELESS:
” ‘Silent Majority’ Must Speak Up When Vocal Minority Imposes Views on Society: Zuby”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/silent-majority-must-speak-when-vocal-minority-imposes-views-society-zuby
There are or were several types of “reserves” if we include the Guard.
The Individual Ready Reserve soldier is not necessarily in a given Reserve unit nor does he train the usual one weekend a month and two weeks a year. Indeed, his minimal requirements are keeping the Army apprised of his whereabouts and various other issues such as education and medical status.
They are former active duty soldiers.
I have a friend from Army days who stayed in the Reserves, in a training unit. When the Gulf War came over the horizon, his unit was activated and charged with training/retraining the IRR guys who’d been called.
He said 90% of those called showed up ready to go. New GI haircuts, the whole thing. But they had to be searched for knives and whatnot.
Doesn’t sound like Putin’s situation.
Ever watch “Cops” and they respond to a public disturbance between two trailer-trash girls and even as they try to get to each other they’re screaming some incoherent, self-serving pack of lies to the officer to justify themselves? That’s what trying to follow what’s going on in Ukraine is like.
That might describe Syria, not the Ukraine. The Ukraine is much more straightforward: Russia invaded in an effort to expand Russia (the justification for which is that there is no Ukrainian nation and, in any case, the place is run by Nazis) and build a platform for reassembling the Soviet Union.
Yes, Putin is horrible, but I feel like this is our decade’s version of “take out Saddam (Qaddafi, Mubarak, Assad) and then not give a damn about what comes next.”
Mubarak wasn’t ‘taken out’. His regime evaporated underneath him, something that has happened now and again over the last generation. (The Philippines, Roumania, and the former East Germany are examples). The country had an excursion into popular revanchism after which the military reasserted itself, something to which the public did not vigorously object because the elected president had proven himself an abusive incompetent. The notion we ‘didn’t give a damn about what comes next’ in Iraq has no reality outside the space between your ears. Both Qadafi and Assad had a huge internal opposition warring against them.
Regarding that fascinating E.U. vs. Italy—potential—“squabble”… I guess the worry is that if Italy “succumbs” (to democracy), then Hungary will be the template for the rest of Europe…
And one simply can’t have that…because, especially after Brexit, the dominoes may well start to tumble, big time…
Amazingly, in tribal terms—so popular these days—we have a German woman threatening an Italian one (along with the latter’s entire country; not sure Italians are too happy about being threatened…but I guess we’ll find out before not too long).
And so, bringing you, courtesy of the E.U: “You can vote as long as it’s for the right candidate”, European style!
(Looks like “Biden”‘s America is still “leader of the free world” in terms of its influence! Alas, it has opened up a “liberal” Pandora’s Box not only in the US…)
the so called Arab spring was not an organic thing, after a dozen years you should know this, it was an active measure by qatar on behalf of al queda, so morsi and company could prevail, robert malley the true eminense gris was coordinating it,
Keeping up with Europe is difficult. Easy to become disoriented. See the Triple Alliance. Italy was an uneasy partner with a number of conditions.
They stayed out of WW I until Austria was so committed that Italy figured they could attack. So there was a terrible war, including Germany, for possession of terrain suitable for travel posters and ski lodges. Half a million of Italy’s “noblest sons” died in the fighting.
The term, “What the hell were they thinking?” was worn out centuries earlier.
after a dozen years you should know this
I’m not paid to listen to you. Save it for the guy who is.
If you want to get an inside look at protests in Russia against the war and, especially, what is going on right now with regard to Putin’s just announced “partial mobilization,” says the information below from Russian vlogger Niki Proshin, you get a mobilization order in the afternoon, and you have to report the next day for examination, and perhaps induction into the military.
Very interesting, and just put up today on Youtube.
See St. Petersburg native Niki Proshin’s Youtube channel at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OVFfN0w7nU
P.S. Proshin covers a lot of other interesting topics too.
Putin is using up his warmaking capability in practically every category including popular support.
Even if he wins here, reproducing it or replacing it will take forever. Given some reports on his health, possibly “forever” doesn’t concern him.
This is not a matter of state. Not like various European wars in the past. This is one man’s idea and the rapid victory was a strong selling point to those who could see no other.
Now…. it’s still one man’s idea.
I see no easy way to peace for the Ukrainians.
Putin has lost his offensive thrust but if we respect the borders of Russia as a sanctuary, he’ll always have a toehold and a path to attack. It’s something like the Yalu River or the DMZ. His threat about nuclear weapons makes most sense as a defensive strategy to blunt offensive actions into Russia proper. He’ll maintain logistic centers inside Russia near the borders too – hitting them with missiles or aircraft will provoke too.
Seems like the war devolves into attrition both militarily, politically, and economically.
The Four Horsemen ride again.
You can’t win a war against somebody who has a sanctuary. See Afghanistan.
The other guy, in effect, expends his interest, keeping his principle safe, until you get tired. See Afghanistan.
OTOH, the Ukes aren’t afraid to go after what may be part of the principle with their HIMARs into airbases and ammo dumps inside Russia and haven’t been nuked yet. Possibly Putin won’t be able to conserve his principle, including popular support. See Viet Nam
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/who-is-winning-the-war-in-ukraine/
They seem to be just scooping up whomever for service. Russia isn’t a rule of law place, what the government says isn’t what it does.
Heads up, Russkies! With these anti conscription protests, they’ll get that washed up folkie James Taylor droning on forever!