The Iran Deal – still pending
Last week, the McLaughlin polling group published the results of a survey regarding Iran and the results leave no question about where the American people stand on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A large majority of Americans strongly opposes the administration’s appeasement policies. 76 percent of Americans support escalating the nuclear sanctions against Iran. Only 14 percent support the administration’s intention to weaken them. Indeed, when asked directly about whether or not to weaken sanctions, 69 percent of Americans said not to. Instead, a plurality of 45 percent of Americans think the U.S. should attack Iran’s nuclear installations if sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear operations.
As for the nuclear deal itself, 63 percent of Americans believe that the nuclear deal is a graver threat to U.S. national security than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And yet the Biden administration is pursuing this terrible deal, just as the Obama administration did when Biden was vice president. They simply do not care what the public thinks, and they certainly are aware of what the public thinks. Likewise, even members of their own party have voiced reservations about the deal. They are worried about the midterms, and rightly so. The Biden administration doesn’t seem very concerned – or at all concerned – about that, either. That’s how important this Iran Deal is to them.
Glick describes the coalition of Israel-supporters in the US who oppose the deal:
The majority pro-Israel camp is comprised of many factions. The two most important ones are national security hawks and faith-based communities, particularly Evangelical Christians…As a nation who fights its own wars, and whose enemies are also America’s enemies, national security hawks recognize that the stronger Israel is, the more secure U.S. interests in the Middle East are.
Faith based voters and communities base their support for Israel first and foremost on their belief that the Jews are God’s chosen people and that the reborn Jewish state is proof that God’s covenant is eternal.
Those may be the two “most important” camps, according to Glick, but I would add that many Americans who don’t fit either of those two descriptions also support Israel, because they recognize it as a functioning democracy struggling to exist in a rough neighborhood, and they are also well aware of the lengthy and terrible history of anti-Semitism as well as the Holocaust.
Glick goes on to describe the anti-Israel camp:
…[I]ts factions can be roughly divided into three groups – hard right isolationists and white nationalists; progressives, and Arabists…
…[O]ver the past generation, progressives have taken over the institutions of the Democrat Party. They have become the dominant faction in the party and they control the Biden administration’s policies.
…The Arabist view posits that U.S. support for Israel undermines U.S. ties with the Arab world. Consequently, Israel is a burden, rather than an asset for the U.S. Arabists argue that U.S. ties with Israel should be downgraded.
Over the past decade, the Arabist camp has been weakened because its key regional anchor, Saudi Arabia has abandoned its hostility with Israel.
And yet, as Glick also points out, a revised Arabist point of view is strong in the Biden administration:
Tellingly, U.S. Arabists have not abandoned their anti-Israel position. Instead, they have turned on the Saudis and the UAE and now rely for justification on Iran’s closest Arab partner Qatar – itself a prolific supporter and financier of terror groups from ISIS to Hamas — and on Iran itself. It is hard to ignore that in their anti-Arab policies, the Arabists among the U.S. foreign policy elite expose a darker motive for their strident opposition to the U.S.-Israel alliance.
As for Israel, Glick describes a pro-US-alliance faction that is fairly straightforward in its strategy of appealing to the pro-US majority:
The first camp, which we can call the American camp, recognizes that Israel cannot influence members of the anti-Israel camp in any of its various factions. But it also recognizes that this camp is the minority in the U.S. and while it is the dominant camp in the Democrat Party, it isn’t the only faction in the party. Members of the American camp believe that the way to preserve and expand U.S. support for Israel is to support and strengthen Israel’s supporters on both sides of the partisan aisle. The American camp advances this goal by speaking straightforwardly and unapologetically about Israel’s interests and actions, and how both advance U.S. interests and values.
And then Glick discusses an “elitist” faction whose position is more complex:
Members of elitist camp believe that the anti-Israel camp, particularly its Arabist and progressive factions is all-powerful. In their view, the State Department is the beginning and the end of U.S. foreign policymaking. Under these circumstances, Israel’s job is to foster good relations with the anti-Israel camp and seek to appease it, even if that appeasement undermines the credibility of Israel’s supporters.
Israel’s radical left supports the elitist approach because its members share the U.S. anti-Israel camp’s hostile ideological convictions about their country. The Lapid camp is a major faction of the elites camp because its members are elitists. Lapid and his supporters prefer the company of progressives and Arabs, who share their habits and personal preferences to the company of security hawks and Evangelicals.
Glick feels that because this second group is in power right now in Israel, it disempowers the American pro-Israel wing to fight off the Biden camp. Perhaps that’s true, but I don’t think it really matters. After all, back in the time of the first Iran deal at the hands of Obama, Netanyahu was in power and he was strongly against the Deal and reached out to the large pro-Israel community in the US – to no avail. Netanyahu even addressed Congress. The majority of the Senate was against the deal, but not enough of them to be able to pass some sort of legislation against it.
The same would be true now, in my opinion, with the Biden administration’s deal. It seems the administration is grimly determined to do this and unless enough Democrats join against them, they will do this.
I think there was enough opposition in the Senate that Obama could not present this as a treaty. I suspect that the new Congress in 2023 will have something to say. Much of the pressure behind Biden’s “agenda” is the knowledge that it will all be reversed after the election.
If not submitted to the Senate for approval as a treaty, this is a temporary foreign policy agreement, subject to reversal by a subsequent administration.
I only know of 2 bits of influence:
former Sen Kerry’s father in law relationship with a child’s spouse
Obama’s relationship with the Iranian-born advisor Val Jarrett
There must be an amazingly powerful confluence of power to continue the push since it has no American popularity at all. It’s so easy, as we’ve learned, for the DC bureaucracy to bury policies yet this policy leads a charmed life.
To me, this argues against something like “Analysts agree that the US and Saudi Arabia will diverge. Iran being the only counter weight to SA, the US will need to cultivate a relationship with Iran” If it was only demographic and geo-political considerations, it would not have the force behind it that is visible to all of us.
There must be an amazingly powerful confluence of power to continue the push since it has no American popularity at all.
Yes, and that always brings up the old question, “cui bono.”
The most likely cause of these odd maneuverings is money. Where is it going ?
Somebody knows.
Honestly I think money explains a lot in terms of Biden and co but not nearly enough to fit all of this. I think the classic “follow the ideology” entreaty fits; we have a nasty alliance of Islamist supporters and Far Leftists making an alliance to attack the middle, as well as Israel. The fact that this allows them both to shed connections with several of the more stable but outwardly nasty and reactionary factions like the Saudis in exchange for the Bright Future of Islamist Hellscapes promised by the “Resistance Bloc” under Iran also helps.
Also on this subject, this brings me to one of my bete noires. The utter insanity that “Arabist” policies have had. The West has been heavily involved in the Middle East for about a Century and a half and the dream of the Arabist never seems to go away in spite of the many, many, many facets that should have killed it dead. Starting with the fact that the so-called “Arab Revolt” with the Sharif of Mecca claiming to be (essentially) Emperor of All Arabs who would lead them heroically onto the Allied Side… over-promised and under-delivered. Most Arabs remained fervently loyal to the Caliphate even under the control of the Ottoman Turks, many of those that didn’t were of separate and often rival factions to the Husseini Clan in Mecca (such as the Saudis) with no desire to submit to him, and those that did had such inglorious messes like being stuck outside the city of Medina, unable to end the siege by the time the Western Allies broke the back of the Ottoman Government. Hence why the siege wouldn’t end until 1919, and only then because the Turkish commander was betrayed by his own homesick subordinates.
It’s dismal and should have told everyone that Arabs are not some kind of grand monolith that we either should or even were capable of uniformly appeasing. AND YET we keep making these same mistakes.
It’s made all the worse because Arab strategic and political culture values STRENGTH, especially if they are dealing with non-Muslims. Compromise is one thing, but appeasement smells like weakness and going too far to currying favor with them probably does more harm than good. And even if it doesn’t it has decidedly underwhelming results, as Ike’s support of Egypt and the Soviets during the Suez Crisis presaging the Arab Cold War and about half the region going Anti-Western shows.
Among the Qataris, there’s almost no support for Persians. Despite that, the government of Qatar has formed a cautious alliance with Iran, because both countries have a longstanding opposition to the Saudis.
If American Arabists are now using Qatar to justify their position, then no one can take them seriously. That is, no one can take their geopolitical analysis seriously. However unpleasant the thought, American Arabists seem to be primarily motivated by simple Jew hatred.
“And yet the Biden administration is pursuing this terrible deal, just as the Obama administration did when Biden was vice president. They simply do not care what the public thinks, and they certainly are aware of what the public thinks.”
Actually it’s worse than that; they hate the public, they really do.
Israel needs to pursue policies as if the USA hates their guts. And the demonkrats And the State Dept do in fact hate their guts. Any time the US has a demonkrat Congress/President , they will support policies harmful to Israel. Any idiot can see this.
Ironically, it is Iran’s policies that are literally driving Arab nations to become sort of pals with Israel. The Arabs may hate the jews – they certainly do – but they know Israel is not a threat to them, whilst Iran is. And Iran hates Israel more than they hate the untermensch Arabs.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
What I don’t understand is why Israel, an advanced technological nation – unlike any Arab nation (which is one reason the Arabs hate Israel, in addition to jewish people belonging to the wrong tribe) keeps seeking (depending upon?) USA aid.
IMHO, Israel has the home-grown capability to defend itself. If they need to buy some US military technology, fine. But it’s time they begin relying less on the US aid and devote more resources to increasing their own defense/offensive capabilities.. Israel certainly has the motivation and brain power to do this.
A conservative legal group has notified the White House that a lawsuit will be filed if an agreement is reached without submitting the deal to the Senate for approval.
I don’t know if they actually think they can stop it, or whether this may slow the process.
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/this-group-is-poised-to-sue-the-biden-administration-to-stop-a-new-iran-nuclear-deal/
“Biden”‘s Iran “Deal” (short version):—
“Biden and Putin Are in Business Together, Thanks to the Iran Deal”—
https://instapundit.com/515537/
I’m under the impression that Congress passed a law preventing a repeat of the Obama/Iran deal.
JohnTyler,
“What I don’t understand is why Israel, an advanced technological nation – unlike any Arab nation (which is one reason the Arabs hate Israel, in addition to jewish people belonging to the wrong tribe) keeps seeking (depending upon?) USA aid.”
In the aftermath of the 1976 Yom Kipper War, which only American military aid enabled Israel to win, it became a commonly accepted dogma within Israel that it could not survive without American support.
Over the years,Israel’s subsequent pariah status in the UN has reinforced that belief, and often only the US blocking particularly onerous sanctions in the UN has resulted in the US having an effective veto power over Israel continuing its military actions. I think it likely that is the primary reason why Israel never finishes its wars.
For years I’ve maintained that Israel tell the US to go pound sand when we tell them to back off. Israel needs to annex Gaza and the West Bank and, since it is impossible for a devout Muslim to be loyal to Israel, to forcibly evict every Muslim from Israel. To remain in Israel, Muslms must publicly reject the pedophilic murderer Muhammad anddeclare that Allah is a false ‘god’.
Then declare that the day that Israel suffers a nuclear attack is the day that Mecca and Tehran cease to exist. And if the EU nations continue to support the Muslim world, that Berlin, Brussels, London and Paris will be added to that retaliatory list.
In addition, to reduce jihadist recruitment, formally declare that captured terrorists will be quickly tried and then executed in an unclean manner, which will be televised and then buried with pig guts. By their own beliefs, forcibly impress upon jihadists that neither paradise nor virgins await them.
What Geoffrey Brittain says . . . .
Quibble alert: 1973 war (or October war / Ramadan war / Yom Kippur war).
With regard to American support, I think there’s also the underlying assumption/hope (on Israel’s part) that at this point it would be more of the genuine moral and political support/solidarity variety and less of the military sort—though should the latter be required, as in 1973, it would certainly be welcome.
(Also involved is support and cooperation with regard to developing new technologies, e.g., the Iron Dome defensive system, which the US helped fund, and continues to do so. To be sure, significant amounts of the results of these R&D efforts redound to America’s use and benefit.)
The assumption here is PRIMARILY that the chances of a large bust-up between Israel and those who aren’t too happy about its existence WILL, with American support, be discouraged and therefore reduced; even if smaller-scale—and one hopes more “manageable”—conflicts will continue to break out from time to time.
Note that the LAST thing Israel wants is to be destroyed(!) and the SECOND-TO-LAST thing Israel wants is to have to destroy or greatly damage anyone who has is attempting its destruction.
No matter what one may think, Israel would really rather NOT have to do the latter…and the belief/hope/assumption IS that the backing of America would help to discourage (i.e., prevent) such an eventuality….
“Biden” has other plans, however, and is far less (i.e., not even remotely) interested in Israel’s assumptions/hopes than it is with promoting “even-handedness” (AKA being an “honest broker”), “justice” and “peace” in the region.
(Being an “honest-broker” means, in this case, “even-handedly” and “non-judgmentally” weighing Israel’s potential destroyers’ arguments against Israel’s desire to prevent its own destruction…without taking sides(!))
The result is a resumption of Obama’s grand “strategic” “vision” of cutting Israel down to size (“even-handedness”), empowering Iran (AKA “peace” in the region) and encouraging the Palestinians’ maximalist demand (AKA “justice”).
In short: The hell with Israel and its assumptions and hopes.
And so, with such encouragement, is it any mystery why the mini-war between Hamas and Israel broke out last spring (a mere several months after “Biden”‘s “election”) and a renewed round of hostilities has currently exploded?
…or any mystery why a new “deal” with Iran is imminent (though even if it does not “materialize”, the “mullahs” have been extensively empowered)?
“Biden” is indeed the gift that never stops giving…
The question (rhetorical, albeit) is, “gift for whom?”….
}}} …[O]ver the past generation, progressives have taken over the institutions of the Democrat Party. They have become the dominant faction in the party and they control the Biden administration’s policies.
Stop calling them “Progressives”. Progressives suggests that what they are is, in any possible regard, “Progress”.
This would be like calling the former East Germany by the name it chose for itself: The “German Democratic Republic”. Only a complete imbecile thought it was either Democratic OR a Republic of any sort. You had to be kind of ignorant to not realize that it was a state as close to 1984 as humanity has ever created.
The proper name for them is “PostModern Liberals” (as opposed to “Classical Liberals”, who are at least worthy of some semblance of respect).
CLs are probably less than 5% of all self-identified “Liberals” (they are probably outnumbered by the RINOS who are closer to CLs than most of all liberals are — the real issue with RINOs is how utterly spineless they are, not their ideas).
PostModern Liberalism is — as I have said in this blog’s comments many many times before, a social cancer. Not a figurative one, an actual, literal cancer.
Their aim is to destroy Western Civilization. Every idea, notion, and concept they operate under targets the rational, moral, economic, and any other social basis for Western Civilization. They operate by the Cloward-Piven Strategy of Orchestrated Crisis:
.
Looking back on the last 55+ years of Democratic activity, do things now start making more sense?
September 28, 2008
Barack Obama and the Strategy of Manufactured Crisis
By James Simpson
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
Passover/Easter greetings from Israel!
1. As usual, Caroline Glick gets it largely correct. I certainly hope Neo is right about widespread support for Israel among secular Americans. I fear that many college educated people under 50 have been subjected to PC indoctrination throughout their formative years.
2. One curiosity is how the Israeli experience is a magic mirror for supporters as well as enemies – If the US and Europe show conservative Israeli society where woke sexual contortions lead, the Israeli experience provides a reality check of the Marxist mix of false Western guilt and one-world kumbaya fantasy…
This projection is typified by Geoffrey Britain and other saber-rattlers who wish Israel would do what they want done in their neck of the woods…. Talk to them about deporting their own Muslim 5th column and suddenly it’s not so simple, nor is it clear what equilibrium society returns to after such an upheaval.
Currently Israel is experiencing its 2nd wave of *internal* Pali terror – that is, pogron-like attacks by emboldened Arab residents of *pre-67* Israel on their Jewish neighbors.
Just like Oslo-era attacks from Pali-controlled Gaza, Judea, and Samaria destroyed the conceptions of many intellectuals, these attacks shatter the mantra by which many middle-Left Israelis have lived – it goes like this:
“The problem is *those* settlers over *there* and their post 1967 “occupation”, but regular Israeli Arabs are partners in Israeli society and accepted the 1948 partition.” (There is a clear religious/secular subtext to this song that lets mainstream Israelis view themselves as enlightened Westerners and hum John Lennon’s “Imagine” to themselves…)
Yet very few have had sudden revelations or drastic changes of opinion. This is human nature: people’s self-images are bound to certain positions. Like birth pangs, the waves of violence cumulatively work to overtake, destroy, and make untenable previous truths.
As where you live, these changes take time – human time. A significant chunk of society must make a political change similar to Neo’s. The response of the police and army to narrative-upending violence from Israeli Arabs has been confused, unsure, and tentative – reflecting a population slowly surrendering PC illusion for reality. And the institutions always lag the populace.
I sense that some supporters of Israel have a projected, wishful view of Israelis as commandos who can brush aside all the moral and practical considerations that make extreme ethnic cleansing difficult and undesireable. Or that our experiences created wall-to wall clarity and consensus. This is not so.
After each attack my son has interesting discussions with left-leaning guys in his army unit, as various pennies drop. In human time…
Perhaps this grass-roots awakening is accelerated here by our narrow margin of error – too much navel-gazing, and buses start blowing up. But unzombie-ing Left-leaning institutions is the same slow process here as where you live.
I love Netanyahu – but he’s a politician and a patriot, not a prophet.
I do not think that theological factors are the *only* reasons for the strong Evangelical support of Israel; maybe not even the most important factor. A high % of Evangelicals are from a Celtic background, and Celts traditionally have a lot of respect for people who *fight*, especially people who fight against heavy odds.
Lots of words above this note so no one will likely see it, but here goes anyway.
70% did not want Obama care, 64% are against this, and 72% are against that and yet someone keeps voting for these knuckleheads both R&D…
R’s had two years to just dump O’Care and did nothing. As an old person with health difficulties I see the negative effects of O’Care all the time. The legislation needed to be one line long. No more O’Care, yea or nay.
All would have survived including me as the docs had more ability to actually practice medicine instead of drowning in bureaucratic nonsense.
Today, we see the bureaucrats running our care facilities with little representation from the actual care givers. Why do you think that you still have to mask up as you head into your clinic or hospital? It saddens me to see the care givers giving in to this nonsense.
So frustrating and infuriating. I don’t see much in the way of a way out…
It’s been clear from the first day of this abomination administration they like Barky’s administration want to get Iran nuclear weapons. Either the same cabal or like minded who knows but it’s clear what they want.
@ JD Keene > “70% did not want Obama care, 64% are against this, and 72% are against that and yet someone keeps voting for these knuckleheads both R&D…
R’s had two years to just dump O’Care and did nothing. ”
I saw it 😉 – and agree (cue rant about John McCain).
However, I note that this sentence could be used as a boiler-plate reference to any current institution.
“Today, we see the bureaucrats running our care facilities with little representation from the actual care givers”
For instance,
“Today, we see the bureaucrats running our schools with little representation from the actual parents of the students.”
“Today, we see the bureaucrats running our Cabinet offices with little representation from the actual elected President.” (especially 2016-2020)
David, an interesting theory.
Two problems would appear to crop up, however:
1. The Republic of Ireland.
2. The purported waning of support of the State of Israel among some evangelicals groups, specifically, and young evangelicals, generally.
Barry Meislin…”Two problems would appear to crop up, however:
1. The Republic of Ireland.
2. The purported waning of support of the State of Israel among some evangelicals groups, specifically, and young evangelicals, generally.”
Don’t understand the point about Ireland…do you mean anti-Israel attitudes in Ireland itself, or does this involve American evangelicals?
Purported waning of support for Israel among evangelicals…to the extent this is a matter of *young* evangelicals, could perhaps be explained by the spread of lefty ‘the minority group is always right’ attitudes among that age range, overpowering traditional Celtic respect for fighting people.