More on the Russian military
This is basically an addendum to yesterday’s post on the Russian military.
I came across some interesting articles: on graft and corruption, on logistical problems, and on organizational problems. There is also evidence that some of Russia’s newer weapons designs have been mostly for show:
In fact, many of Russia’s high profile technological leaps in military prowess have since proven to be little more than publicity stunts. The Su-57, Russia’s 5th-generation stealth fighter, exists in too few numbers to matter even if it were as capable as they claim. Expert assessments place their premier stealth fighter’s radar cross-section as about comparable to that of America’s 4th generation F/A-18 Super Hornet, and their recently unveiled Checkmate fighter, if it ever flies at all, will almost certainly be even less stealthy.
Likewise, Russia’s T-14 Armata main battle tank may also prove to be among the best in the world, if only Russia could afford to build any.
That entire article is well worth reading.
I have just about zero knowledge about any of these topics, but I know that some of you have quite a bit.
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Apropos of Russian military publicity stunts, they had a precedent in Russian commercial aviation, namely the Tupolev Tu-144, which was a shameless copy of the British-French Concorde. The Tu-144, which was nicknamed the Concordski when it made its debut at the 1971 Paris Air Show, had been based on Concorde blueprints stolen by the Soviets in the 1960s. The Tu-144 entered commercial service in 1977, but although “It may have resembled its Anglo-French counterpart . . . it lacked the luxuries of the Concorde. Moreover, it could only sustain supersonic speeds while using afterburners like a military fighter. It was reportedly so loud that passengers were unable to have a conversation while the aircraft was in flight. The aircraft also didn’t really serve any significant purpose. Unlike the Concorde that jetted passengers from London or Paris to New York City or Washington, D.C., the Soviet’s Aeroflot used the SST on a two-hour route between Moscow and Alma Ata, the capital of Kazakhstan.”
The Concordski’s career was shortened by two disastrous crashes, one at the 1973 Paris Air Show (in which people on the ground were killed as well as the aircrew), and another in 1978. The 1973 crash was caused by the crew’s putting the plane through hard twists and other maneuvers that would never have been done with passengers on board– IOW, publicity stunt flying.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/07/tupolev-tu-144-russias-version-of-the-concorde-was-a-supersonic-disaster/
Although the Concordski was not a military aircraft, its backstory does make one wonder how many other planes, tanks, guns, and other hardware in the current Russian arsenal are inept copies of someone else’s weaponry.
“Hungary’s Orban criticized for ‘neutrality’ in Ukraine war”
https://www.breitbart.com/news/hungarys-orban-criticized-for-neutrality-in-ukraine-war/
In other noteworthy news and opinion:
“White House celebrates Maoist Yuri Kochiyama who cheered bin Laden, communist massacre in Peru”
Adding to her resume, late in life she converted to Islam.
https://newsnationusa.com/news/usanews/white-house-celebrates-maoist-yuri-kochiyama-who-cheered-bin-laden-communist-massacre-in-peru/
“Biden is planning a new digital currency. Here’s why you should be very worried”
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/599768-biden-is-planning-a-new-digital-currency-heres-why-you-should-be-very-worried?amp
From the country who brought us Potemkin villages…
(Though I think that “Biden” is also finding the “concept” rather useful…)
The disclosures about corruption in the Russian military do not surprise me, but the apparent magnitude of the corruption is pretty breath-taking. Our elites may be stupid and overly self-regarding, but theirs are utterly foul.
A little OT, but it is about Russia. Two interesting reads in the weekend WSJ. I’d think Peggy Noonan isn’t a favorite of many here, but she still writes something worthwhile from time to time – today is one. And if nothing else you’ll learn a bit about John Hay, who is worth knowing about, and a bit about Tolstoy I certainly didn’t know.
The other is an interview with Bill Browder. It’s long and a bit all over the place, but I think he makes a few excellent points.
Anyway, highly recommend them both.
It’s one thing to make incremental improvements. See the development of our tanks from the M4 Sherman with the short 75mm through to the M60. Some dead ends like the M103 of which the Army had a battalion if a Marine sympathizer was in the DoD, or the jarheads if an Army sympathizer was in charge. Too heavy for European bridges and too big for Marine landing craft.
I think they mostly ended up on concrete pedestals in front of Reserve centers.
Or the progress of fighters and interceptors from the F80 to the F104.
It’s not cheap.
But jumping a generation is really really expensive. Once you’ve done the work for that, making more copies might be more than the budget can spare, since you need to keep the older ones available in case of trouble as well.
The Kremlin sez: Here is a machine translated summary of events following one month of combat operations as posted by Boris Rozhin (aka Col. Cassad):
1. The offensive of the Russian troops disrupted the plans of the AFU offensive on the DPR and LPR using artillery, missile systems and aviation.
2. On January 22, Russian intelligence intercepted the order of General Balan on the need to complete preparations for offensive actions before February 28, so that the AFU could go on the offensive in March.
3. The operation is progressing according to plan. The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have already been completed.
4. The main priority remains the preservation of civilian lives. Hence the tactics of precision strikes on the military infrastructure and the armed forces of the enemy.
5. The blocking of large cities ensures the shackling of the AFU forces and does not allow the Ukrainian command to transfer reinforcements to the Donbass. The main operation at the moment is in the Donbas. 276 settlements have already been liberated in the DPR and LPR. 93% of the territory of the LPR and 54% of the territory of the DPR have been liberated. The group currently defending in Mariupol has more than 7,000 people.
6. Air supremacy was won by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the first two days of the operation. The organized air defense system, the Ukrainian Air Force and the Ukrainian Navy have virtually ceased to exist.
7. Up to 70% of all military stocks of Ukraine were destroyed as a result of systematic attacks on warehouses. 30 key facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine were destroyed. 68% of enterprises where military equipment was repaired have already been destroyed. At the same time, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, the Ukrainian army has already destroyed 127 bridges.
8. All the organized reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been put into operation, there are no new ones. Hence the bet on the mobilization of the untrained contingent. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, 6595 foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine.
9. Total losses of the AFU during the month of operation. About 14,000 killed and about 16,000 wounded (the total losses of the AFU group in the Donbas account for 26% of the personnel). Of the 2,416 combat-ready tanks and Armored Fighting Vehicles on February 24, 1,587 were destroyed in a month. 112 out of 152 military aircraft were destroyed, 75 out of 149 helicopters, 35 out of 36 Bayraktar TB2 drones were destroyed. Out of 180 S-300 and Buk M1 – 148, out of 300 radars for various purposes – 117.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will promptly respond to any attempts to close the airspace of Ukraine for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
10. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, at least 10 Ukrainian sea mines are now drifting uncontrollably in the Black Sea, posing a threat to navigation.
11. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation handed over captured weapons to the DPR and LPR. Among other things, 113 tanks and 138 ATGM “Javelin” were transferred.
More than 23,000 applications have been received from citizens of 37 states wishing to fight for the DPR and LPR. There are also a lot of such applications from Russian citizens.
12. Official losses since the beginning of ITS. Killed – 1351. Wounded – 3825.
vanderleun:
Your point?
And then there’s this:
Russia Signals It Will Limit Scope To “Complete Liberation Of Donbas” – Says “No Progress” In Talks
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Mar 26, 2022 – 05:44 AM
Update(11:43ET): In what’s looking like a hugely significant first sign that Russia could be pulling back on the scope of its Ukraine operations, Bloomberg reports Friday that the Kremlin may be limiting its key military objectives to taking full control over the Donbas region. This despite multiple parts of the county, including outside the capital of Kiev, still witnessing intense fighting and shelling.
The hugely important Friday Bloomberg report says that “After a month of fighting that’s yielded limited territorial gains, the Russian military said it’s focusing efforts on taking full control of Ukraine’s Donbas region, potentially a sign it’s backing away from hopes of taking larger swathes of the country.”
The Russian military’s first deputy chief of the General Staff Sergei Rudskoi said the following as quoted in Interfax: “Our forces will focus on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbas.”
OK on the Russian logistics issue. From the link from War on the rocks one of the articles they linked to I am familiar with cause I read through the whole 400+ page report a few years ago.
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf
One of the key things contributors to the shitty Russian Logistics is on Page 38.
“One reform that has not been successful was the abolition of some logistics and maintenance units in favor of private contractors.”
Then on the end of Page 324 and 326.
“Commanders complained about the level of service and feasibility of contractor-provided maintenance services on the battlefield. In current practice, operator, unit, and organizational maintenance is provided by uniformed servicemen, while depot-level maintenance is provided by contract labor (usually by the way of a state owned company) at a maintenance depot or by the equipment manufacturer.”
I’m not expecting anybody including you Neo to go through the document because there is really a lot of Gems in there if you pay attention like their planning style compared to the US DOD. Which explains so much about their current incompetency.
@ Scott > “Our elites may be stupid and overly self-regarding, but theirs are utterly foul.”
This observation from Neo’s Politico link is on point. Sounds very familiar.
“Corruption in Russian defense is not limited to the military-industrial complex. It penetrates the political level as well, likely altering the incentive structure for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top security officials. Recent investigations show that top officials in the Russian Defense Ministry own property that significantly outmatches their income [for example, Congressional salaries], pointing to possible involvement in corrupt deals.”
Not that I uncritically accept everything Politico prints, of course.
@ Chang > “From the link from War on the rocks one of the articles they linked to I am familiar with cause I read through the whole 400+ page report a few years ago.”
Could you specify the location of that link in the WotR article? I would like to know the context.
Thanks for your observations.
NOTE: War on the Rocks has “curated” (their word) a large number of relevant articles, many from before the current invasion, which might be worth looking at for the views of some military and foreign policy “experts” (apply your own caveats as desired) as to the whys and wherefores.
https://warontherocks.com/understanding-the-russo-ukrainian-war-a-guide-from-war-on-the-rocks/
Neo’s link to Sandboxx led to a couple of articles that might be of interest here, one from the beginning of the month and one from yesterday.
https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-army-just-activated-its-massive-gear-stockpile-in-europe-heres-what-that-means/
https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-wolfs-at-the-door-how-russia-is-reshaping-the-nato-alliance/
An observation in that one which may have been noted in the very long discussions about NATO and Putin, but that I’ve missed.
“Despite a 2019 amendment to the Ukrainian constitution committing it to seek membership in NATO and the European Union, Ukraine remains outside the alliance. That reality leaves NATO unbound by a mutual defense pact and more free to choose how to provide aid and support, but also may have emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin in his decision to launch an invasion that the Russian government has continuously characterized as a special military operation.”
The Russian military has always been terrible. Its status as a major player is based on one war — WWII. Even then you have to hide things the Russians don’t talk about, like Lend Lease, and the fact that if Germany hadn’t been blockaded by the Royal Navy, they probably would have beaten the Russians.
All the other embarrassments, like being unable to roll even puny Finland, just get ignored. Actually, the Finnish experience and the current Ukrainian one have a great deal in common. Both were expected to be roll-overs by everyone except the defenders.
I’m not entirely sure why people keep assuming that a corrupt state, with an army notorious for low morale, is a major power. They perform terribly badly in Chechnya, so they say they are undertaking reforms. And people believe them every time. How could a country run effectively as a mafia state have an effective army?
Putin fears the army, because it is a source of power outside him. So all the decent generals are replaced by political appointments of no merit, and less charisma. And the corruption at every level ensures the rest.
The Russian military is large. But it is very bad. And while Putin remains in charge, it will stay that way.
@ Geoffrey > “Biden is planning a new digital currency. Here’s why you should be very worried”
Okay, now you DO have me worried.
No way something that complex got started on January 20, 2021.
How long has this been in the works, was it one of the reasons Trump had to be ousted, what’s the connection to Russian and Ukraine, and how are the MEF and Davoisie involved?
Is this Biden’s New World Order – with a side of fries?
In re the New World Currency – our favorite Cassandra on the same subject.
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2022/03/08/fiat/
There are probably reasons for that difference – as in Obama, and now Biden, giving the money back to Iran.
Sarah recommended this post, which is on a blog also frequently cited on Neo’s threads. I believe that I Am Spartacus would approve this message.
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2022/03/courage-to-change-what-must-be-altered.html
Note to anyone who doesn’t know Peter Grant but has an interest in things like firearms and self-defense, give his blog a try.
And as one of the commenters added to the above post:
GeoffNewbury said…
I learned a different version:
Father, Grant me the courage to change what must be changed, the serenity to accept that which cannot changed, and the wisdom to bury the bodies so they cannot be found.
Lots of truth in Chester Draws comment.
AesopFan,
I had a very long post regarding fiat currency on my former blog. I was reminded of it when I read Sarah Hoyt’s post. I wish Japanese hackers hadn’t destroyed threedonia.com. It was a really informative post.
Oh well.
Anyway, Reader’s Digest version; fiat currency is insane. We are doomed.
@AesopFan From the original article Neo links. Talking about Russia’s logistical problems.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
In that article itself look in the section “Railroads and Russian Logistics Capabilities” that is where you can find the link to the 400 page research paper.
@Chester Draws well they didn’t do that bad in Georgia. At the same time the Russo-Georgian war showed the rest of the Eastern European states how Russia planned to reconquer them. So they prepared accordingly, Ukraine being the best example of this.
The famous Maskirovka is built around the fact that Russia’s military is that weak. To win they must rely on Surprise and a quick war to gain their objectives. When the Iron Curtain fell NATO learnt that Russian plans to invade included near indiscriminate use of WMD’s (Gas,Chemical) to the level that they hadn’t planned for because they never realized to the Soviets even a pyrrhic victory is still victory.
Just this morning I came across this discussion of central banks creating digital currency (CBDC): https://www.city-journal.org/central-bank-digital-currency-caution .
It describes a number of the horrors of tyrannical control over money, and thus presumably the control of people. But if the control over money is too absolute, people will reject that form of money and find another. Money is simply an agreement to make trade and barter more efficient via the use of intermediate media. And ALL such media are equivalently fiat money when the faith is lost (in paper, digital, or corrupted physical commodity money).
But the controllers do not seem to appreciate what would happen in our complex and highly interdependent economies if they deny too many access to their money. Maybe denying 1, 2, or 3% of the people their money and work arounds will be found/ managed. But at some point (4, 6, 8%?) the inability of the “nodes of the network” to perform their respective roles due to having no money will start to impact everyone else. I gather the Canadian truckers regained access to their accounts before the impact of that denial actually became apparent. And we are seeing commentary raising concerns about how even the sanctions on Russia could have significant blow back on the rest of the (Western?) world sanctioneers.
@ Chang Yee Fong – thanks.
Dropping the sentence in here for future reference.
“Russian army logistics forces are not designed for a large-scale ground offensive far from their railroads.”
It’s hard to follow links buried in texts. I prefer foot notes with clear URLs.
The WotR section on logistics was quite interesting, especially with the addition of your notes from the Grau-Bartles paper. I’m somewhat surprised that WotR didn’t mention corruption explicitly in their post.
I got 12 “hits” on that from the G-B paper, and a quick skim of the those shows broad agreement with Politico and Chester.
It is perhaps of some historic interest that wars, and the money associated with military expenditures in general, draws corruption like rotten meat draws maggots.
I was specifically thinking of this period, remembering some of my reading.
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2018/12/18/the-days-of-shoddy-worst-manufacturers-of-the-civil-war/
This one is a broader look, from 1975; I’m sure it could be extended.
https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/political-corruption-war-years
“The study discusses corruption within presidential administrations in periods of war, from the Civil War through Watergate, and suggests ways to deter congressional corruption.”
@ Chang Yee Fong > “When the Iron Curtain fell NATO learnt that Russian plans to invade included near indiscriminate use of WMD’s (Gas,Chemical) to the level that they hadn’t planned for because they never realized to the Soviets even a pyrrhic victory is still victory.”
An inability to appreciate sarcasm seems to be a characteristic of authoritarians.
This observation makes Putin’s nuke threats a bit more concerning.
I note that the Iranian mullahs seem to have the same mind set – as in: so what if their own country, or the world, is destroyed, so long as Israel is annihilated.
Not a happy making thought.
Aesop
Somebody, maybe me, mentioned Sowell’s work on Intellectuals and War, an essay in “Intellectuals and Society”.
He pointed to the endless work product of intellectuals insisting that Germany was no threat because……rational, counterproductive, nobody would do such a thing, makes no sense, etc.
The presumption that another party will act rationally and in what seems to be its own self interest usually leads to the conclusion that we don’t have to worry, nor do anything about it.
@AesopFan I’m not somebody who cares too much about corruption because I’ve learnt through the years that the number of Governmental system that isn’t corrupt can be counted in my old EOD buddies right hand. “You can guess how many fingers he’s got.”
The only difference in my eye’s has always been whether they take their slice and make things work which is what usually happens with the DOD in the US as compared to the cardboard armor as we are seeing in Russia. The trouble I saw in the report I linked was how separated the for profit contractors were from the grunts on the ground. It was a recipe for disaster when you combine them with top heavy command structure they use.
As for how crazy Putin is, it depends on whether he’s dying or just impatient. In Iran’s case I never really worried because the honest truth is their system of government was always too busy keeping themselves in power in Iran and what we received in general was the leftover resources they could devote to trying to bring down the West which in general was never much.
Chester Draws,
Something to add with respect to the Red Army in WW2 is that they were getting intel from the Brits decryption of German communications. I believe this enabled their success at Stalingrad and later battles, giving them heads up and even great detail of the coming German attacks.
Early WW2 the Red Army was incompetent, but they seemed to start reading the mind of their German opponents in 1942 and get better at it in 43.
“Early WW2 the Red Army was incompetent, but they seemed to start reading the mind of their German opponents in 1942 and get better at it in 43.”
There was also the rehabilitation of the purged Red Army officers. The officers in Europe in 1941 were chosen more for political loyalty than talent. When the Axis invaded, it was this group that was charged with leading the Red Army in the defense of the USSR. One of the things that Stalin did as a result of the invasion was to rehabilitate the purged officers (most of whom had been sent into career exile instead of shot), which improved the quality of the army leadership.
Knowing enemy intentions is a huge boon. But planning your own offensive operations – such as the spectacularly successful Operation Bagration in 1944 – requires good planning and leadership of your own.
Richard Sorge had some good effect as to what resources Stalin needed to keep in the east and what could be released to the west.
“Moreover, it could only sustain supersonic speeds while using afterburners like a military fighter.”
What you’re talking about is called supercruise. The ability to maintain supersonic speed with a useful passenger, cargo, or weapons load but without burners or going into a dive. And actually the later versions of the TU-144 could do this.
Don, of course the Red Army was incompetent. When you execute all the competent commanders in the 1930s how well do you think your army is going to do in 1941?
Let me lay a little truth on you. Stalin was stunned when Hitler invaded. He got drunk for a week in his countryside dacha. And nobody took charge in his absence. Because everyone knew that Stalin’s first order of business when he sobered up would have been to execute anyone who proved himself competent as a potential rival.
“I have just about zero knowledge about any of these topics, but I know that some of you have quite a bit.”
I retired in 2008. So I know a lot less than I used to know. One thing I believe has remained constant. The technology doesn’t matter if you’re saddled with Rules Of Engagement (ROE) that prevents you from using it. For instance, you can have the mightiest radar ever built into a fighter and all the fire and forget anti-aircraft missiles in the world, but you throw that advantage away if your government (actually, ours) requires you to visually identify an aircraft down to reading the tail numbers before shooting it.
God bless the French. Yes, the French. You’ll never hear any talk of surrender monkeys from me. They actually like to fight. It’s “Injun country” right over the flight deck. A lot of our so called allies saddle their troops with ROE that mean they can’t get into a fight.
“Hey, they’re going to launch an RPG. Shoot!” “We can’t. They haven’t shot yet.” OK, they’ve launched the RPG, shoot now.” We can’t. now they’re unarmed.”
But not the French. If you ever talk to the troops who served in the sandbox, it’s basically the Americans, Brits, Diggers, Kiwis and the French who want to get into a fight.
BTW, do you know how stupid an idea it is to dirty up an F-16 so it can fly slow enough to read the tail numbers off a Cessna?
Steve57:
Good to hear from you!
You’ve been scarce for about a year it seems.
Cessna 172. It’s doable with a Cessna Citation.
Fun fact: When I was doing counternarcotics in Central America, most of the aircraft we tracked flying the flight profile law enforcement told us to look out for as drug smugglers were actually Christian missionaries flying from one rural flock to another, from one jungle airstrip to another.
It wasn’t entirely a waste of time. But I’m hesitant to say what of value I did learn as I don’t want NEO to accuse me (rightfully) of spreading dangerous ideas.
om, it’s nice to be missed. I’ve had a few health issues. I had both hips replaced.
Which didn’t fix all the problems. Do you know how hard it is to walk with a cane when your shoulders don’t work?
This isn’t a bid for sympathy. I find the whole thing funny. You have to approach these things with a sense of humor. Life happens to us all. I remember coming home on leave from the Navy and visiting my Grandma. She’d tell me, “Don’t get old (Arminius). It sucks.”
Damn, was my Grandma right or what?
As if I don’t have enough pain in my life I have two 24 year old girlfriends and they’re about to find out about each other.