Home » Open thread 1/17/22

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Open thread 1/17/22 — 31 Comments

  1. I’m an amateur astronomer with a particular interest in cosmology so I love this stuff. Since this is an open thread and I don’t have my own blog I’ll post my favorite video regarding the implications of living in an expanding universe here.

    https://youtu.be/vIJTwYOZrGU

    It’s by Don Lincoln at Fermilab outside Chicago. I think this guy is the best there is at explaining highly complex concepts in a way that can be understood intuitively.

  2. Because the universe is old and once you reach a certain age, you gradually start getting bigger. Even going to the gym every day won’t stop it. Trust me on this explanation, I know it for a fact.

  3. I look at inflation as an ad hoc idea that solves the problems the Big Bang presents for pre-400k years age of the universe. As Guth says, from 400k years forward things are very well-understood; it’s that 0-400k era that presents problems especially with regard to the MWB.

    Quite frankly, as inflation is ad hoc, I don’t believe a word of it 🙂 . I look at it as a stop gap idea. The problem, to me, is that the pre-400k era is the era where it is absolutely necessary to have a true “marriage” of QM and GR, which we don’t have. To talk about a universe of even say 1 inch diameter with the density and curvature without a good quantum description of spacetime is a waste. My guess is that once we find the QM-GR meld, inflation will no longer be needed, along with dark matter and dark energy.

    Some interesting ideas have emerged in the last decade. Some Italian physicists have proposed the idea of spacetime as a fluid which can solve a lot of the dark matter issues. So how does spacetime flow? Well, towards a higher entropy state which also solves the arrow of time problem, as well as time reversal at small distances (little eddies in spacetime). Correct? Who knows, but not much more of a crazy idea than inflation.

  4. I liked the part where Guth says that the inflation model explains omega based on the observed (measured?) dark matter in the universe. I thought it was “dark” because you couldn’t observe it? OK. Can’t observe it directly I suppose.
    ______

    It’s amazing to me how critical the 3 deg. cosmic background radiation was to all of this, and its relative uniformity.

    While the CBR was predicted starting around the beginning of the 20th century, it wasn’t measured until about 1965 by a couple of Bell Labs guys who weren’t even trying to measure it. They just wanted to build the world’s most sensitive microwave antenna and receiver.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holmdel_Horn_Antenna#/media/File:Horn_Antenna-in_Holmdel,_New_Jersey_-_restoration1.jpg

    They pointed their antenna towards some empty area of space and expected to receive nothing and detect the very low noise floor of their receiving equipment. Except the noise level was much higher than expected. After extensive analysis they concluded they were receiving real noise signals from space. Not your typical Nobel prize winning experiment.

    While there was an accidental component to their work, who would have spent months analyzing and experimenting with a tiny noise signal?

  5. > who would have spent months analyzing and experimenting with a tiny noise signal?

    @TommyJay – that’s exactly the mindset of good scientists and engineers. They just *have* to solve the problem if it’s the last thing they do. I work at an organization that has literally thousands of such people and it’s what they do.

  6. From Deep Space to Deep State (Wisconsin edition):
    “Wisconsin Judge Rules Ballot Drop Boxes Used in 2020 Election Were Illegal”—
    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2022/01/16/wisconsin-judge-rules-ballot-drop-boxes-used-in-2020-election-were-illegal-n1549881
    H/T Instapundit.
    Key grafs:
    “A judge in the state of Wisconsin ruled on Thursday that the use of ballot boxes in the 2020 election was, in fact, illegal. Joe Biden was declared the winner over Donald Trump in the state by 20,682 votes…
    “…By an odd coincidence, Wisconsin is one of a handful of swing states where “midnight magic” occurred on election night. These were the states where, at some point in the wee hours, massive vote dumps produced huge jumps in Biden’s, and only Biden’s, vote tallies…
    “…The boxes also facilitate ballot harvesting, which is also illegal in many of these states. Judge Bohren’s ruling on Thursday confirmed that ballot harvesting is illegal under Wisconsin state law, as well….”

  7. I like when he says that “our reality is not best expressed by classical physics but by quantum physics, and quantum physics is fundamentally a random process”.
    I’m not attempting to be a Luddite here or even suggest I have a deep grasp of quantum physics if any at all, but:
    Classical physicists looked at the orderly universe and deduced that there must be laws that govern it and that they should figure those out. And they also deduced that there was a Lawmaker behind it.
    To say that it’s all really random, makes one wonder why you are bothering.
    Unless it only appears random, but that there are missing pieces influencing your observations that you don’t understand.

  8. Tommy Jay/Hugh Jones:
    “> who would have spent months analyzing and experimenting with a tiny noise signal?”
    I had thought that they were trying to deduce what the source in their own equipment of the “noise” they were getting to bring their equipment into spec when they realized it was external.

  9. Ed,

    QM is just as “law driven” as Newtonian, and in fact melds right into Newtonian physics at macroscopic scales. Guth really misspoke. QM is not random, but probabilistic. The outcome of a particular measurement is going to be the result of a probability rather than a concrete, predetermined result. Take for example a bullet shot at a hole in a wall. Newton says the bullet will either go through the hole or not; and if it goes through the hole it will strike a target on the other side exactly in line with the hole. QM says if the bullet goes through the hole is will hit the target SOMEWHERE within a Gaussian distribution on the target centered about the point exactly in line with the hole. We calculate those probabilities very precisely and they have been confirmed many times by experiment.

  10. i READ, same here. A scientist who can convey the general idea to those of us who are not accustomed to thinking in equations is wonderful. I know some who can do this, and some who cannot.

  11. There is no explanation for why the universe exists. Some questions science just cannot answer.

    What started the big bang? You can’t get something from nothing, right?

  12. As Ed suggests, our expanding universe is the result of how it was designed.

    “Why Some Scientists Embrace the ‘Multiverse”

    Michael Turner, astrophysicist at the University of Chicago and Fermilab: “The precision is as if one could throw a dart across the entire universe and hit a bulls eye one millimeter in diameter on the other side.”
    https://dennisprager.com/column/why-some-scientists-embrace-the-multiverse/

    Note: neither randomness NOR “probalistic” outcomes satisfy that degree of precision. Only intentionality is sufficient explanation.

    Yawrate,

    There is an explanation, it’s simply a religious one. Religious in that those relating a deeper revelation of reality to others were convincing to their contemporaries. Since revelation absent personal experience of it is impossible to confirm, it becomes an article of faith.

    Like Indiana Jones stepping out into the abyss and discovering the unseen narrow bridge.

  13. Hugh Jones,
    I knew a few people that would have done that, but an institution with thousands? Wow.
    ______

    physicsguy, My mind tripped over that “random” comment, but the correct notion didn’t register with me. Nice job.
    _____

    Ed Bonderenka,

    They famously studied the noise effect of bird poop inside their antenna. So yes, they had to go through the process of elimination starting with the mundane.

  14. I saw my internist today, for a routine checkup. We discussed COVID a bit, among other things. His nurse asked if I’d had the booster (I haven’t), so he knew I am not boosted. He didn’t say anything to me about getting one. I’m 72, no health problems. Also, he told me his friend works in pediatrics at a local large hospital (this would be either Duke or UNC). The friend tells him ALL the children in the hospital or ICU for COVID are obese. Same goes for adults; obesity is a strong indicator the patient will have trouble with the virus.

  15. This amazing, and expanding, universe.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buqtdpuZxvk

    (Makes you want to sing.
    Sing.
    Sing.)

    Random or Probabilistic?
    Aren’t they essentially the same?
    https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chance-randomness/
    “(CT-Commonplace Thesis) Something is random iff it happens by chance.”

    “a number of technical and philosophical advances in our understanding of both chance and randomness open up the possibility that the easy slide between chance and randomness in ordinary and scientific usage—a slide that would be vindicated by the truth of the Commonplace Thesis—is quite misleading.”

    oof.

  16. Actually, I thought probability wasn’t behavior, but rather related to observation.
    I am in agreement with Geoffrey Britain.
    And Multiverse is the escape that some give themselves from an obviously designed universe. That we were the lucky universe.

  17. Been a while since we’ve had our Three Minutes of Z-Man Hate. So, by popular demand:

    https://www.takimag.com/article/a-new-threat/

    “America did not always operate with the best of intentions during the Cold War, but there is no questioning who was on offense and who was on defense. For close to forty years, the United States defended the West from communist aggression and policed the rest of the world for communist insurrection. Of course, we know how the Cold War ended. The Soviet empire collapsed and Western democracy prevailed.

    Fast-forward to the present and the roles are reversed. It is Russia on the defensive, trying to protect her way of life from an ideological opponent. Instead of promising a world of material equality, the West promotes a world of cultural equality in which all the world’s people are turned into consumers and the affairs of the world are managed by a class of experts. The “end of history” will be the universal managerial state.

    Russia, on the other hand, sees itself as the protector of Eurasia, a world that is not quite Europe and not quite Asia. Along with most of the former Soviet republics, Russia rejects the universalism of the West. Liberal democracy has its place, but it does not fit the culture and traditions of Eurasia. America’s crusade to impose liberal democratic morality on Eurasia is viewed as hostile aggression.

    This is why Putin views the recent events in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan as part of an asymmetrical war on Eurasia. America overthrew the government of Ukraine in 2014 and tried to do the same in Belarus last year. Further back, they instigated unrest in the former republic of Georgia, which led to the Russo-Georgian War. Of course, it is clear that the West was instrumental in stirring up unrest in Kazakhstan last month.

    The ultimate target for America is Russia. Not even the usual suspects in the State Department care all that much about their ancestral homelands in Ukraine, but it is a pressure point they use to undermine the Russians. The same is true of Kazakhstan, which has been willing to play ball with the West. The American empire will not rest until the rainbow flag flies over the Kremlin.”

    We (some, at least) have met the Enemy and zhe/zhir/they is us.

  18. Zaphod,

    You paint with too broad a brush when you categorically state, “The ultimate target for America is Russia… The American empire will not rest until the rainbow flag flies over the Kremlin.”

    Less than half of Americans want any flag other than Russia’s to fly over it and categorically reject the rainbow flag’s underlying meme.

    Those ‘americans’ who do work to impose the rainbow flag over Russia are fundamentally opposed to America’s founding precepts. Cultural change imposed upon another society is a grave injustice.

    In addition, America has never had an Empire. As to have an empire, an empire must be willing to enforce it with armed oppression upon its rebellious provinces.

    Massive economic and political influence sure but every American protecturate can freely vote for independence and America would by force of law have to honor it. Case in point, the Philippines.

    Nor will it ever have an empire for to do so would mean that it was America in Name Only.

  19. @GB:

    Obviously I speak of USGov, the Institution, the Great Satan, itself and all who sail in that pox-raddled bark and not you or any other random fustian-clad Citizen you might happen to bump into on Lexington Common.

    Fustians OK. Faustians Not OK. M’kay?

    As for Empire post WWII: If it walks like a Duck, quacks like a Duck, engages in the act of procreation like a Duck… well…

    So… The Bay of Pigs… Land War in South-East Asia, Grenada, Gunboats up the Yangtze… Propping up Marcos in the Philippines until doing so would be untenable… Obviously these are the actions of a Constitutional Republic which marches to fife and drum.

    Look… let’s not argue about this too much. I’m not Anti-American. But record is about as checkered as that of any other big (err) De-facto Imperial Suzerain. Right now, in 2022, the US Government and its terminal stupidities and insanities are the No. 1 threat to world peace. Russia isn’t even in the top 3.

    Best thing would be if you and like-minded could get rid of current regime and then stop trying to export righteousness to the rest of the world. Just be satisfied with your own special perfection. Messianic Jihads to improve and fix the rest of the world don’t help anyone.

  20. Oriental Despotism Strikes Again:

    Not much Covid in HK. Also not much coming or going from the joint.

    OTOH the number of people who have died from/with/whatever Covid since May 1 last year is 4.

    These two will be doing time, not just being fined, methinks.

    https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202201/17/P2022011700698.htm

    Police arrested and laid charges on two former flight attendants of an airline for violating the Prevention and Control of Disease Regulation (Cap. 599A) today (January 17).

    Investigation revealed that the two persons, whilst employed by an airline as flight attendants, arrived in Hong Kong from the United States on December 24 and 25, 2021 respectively. During medical surveillance, they had conducted unnecessary activities in contravention of Cap. 599A on December 25 and 27, 2021 respectively. They were both subsequently tested positive for COVID-19 Omicron variant, and have been discharged from hospital upon completion of treatment.

    Police arrested the two persons today for violating Section 15(3) of Cap. 599A, and laid charges on them today after seeking legal advice. They have been released on bail. The cases will be mentioned at the Tuen Mun Magistrates’ Courts and the Eastern Magistrates’ Courts on February 9.

    Pursuant to Section 15(3) of the Prevention and Control of Disease Regulation (Cap. 599A), a person who fails to observe any condition specified by a health officer, would be liable on conviction to a fine at level 2 ($5,000) and to imprisonment for six months.

  21. @ Hugh Jones > “that’s exactly the mindset of good scientists and engineers. They just *have* to solve the problem if it’s the last thing they do. I work at an organization that has literally thousands of such people and it’s what they do.”

    Sounds like one of these guys.
    https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/01/17/murder-in-a-new-york-subway-station/#comment-2602100

    *There is a wonderful book, “Hackers” by Steven Levy where he describes personalities drawn to the earliest computers at MIT. Like me, many spent their childhoods memorizing NY’s public transportation routes, including mapping out the shortest distances between disparate locations. Also mapping the NY phone switching system. I’m sure many here know of the exploits of Captain Crunch, one of the early “phone hackers” or “phone phreaks.”

    FWIW, I knew one of the early phreaks who hacked the AT&T boxes in Houston in the seventies, just for the lulz. (No connection to Crunch, but undoubtedly knew of his exploits.)
    Nice guy. Good piano player.
    Musical interests are highly correlated with computer programming skills, in my experience.

  22. Zaphod,
    What post WW2 America has had is a global sphere of influence, not an empire.
    If it was an empire, for example, in Korea, America would have fought to run , control the land, tax, write the laws of, colonize Korea. Instead, thousands of Americans died to keep the south out of the Communist North’s hands.
    If it was an empire, in Iraq, America would have fought to run, control the land, tax, write the laws of, and colonize Iraq. Instead, the US foolishly tried to set up a democracy in Iraq.
    Same thing with Vietnam, etc.
    There has been no real expansion of American territory since the Spanish American War of 1898.

  23. AesopFan,

    Agree with correlation between music and programming skills. I’ve also known many musicians who are not good programmers and many programmers who are not musicians, but I’ve known a few musicians who took to programming to pay the bills and were excellent. Same with History majors.

  24. jon baker,

    Thank you for that insightful response to Zaphod’s claim of an American ‘Empire’.

    Zaphod,

    I agree that Putin’s Russia is not a serious threat to world peace. Russia’s threat to the Ukraine is reactive. Were NATO to abandon its efforts to incorporate the Ukraine into its embrace, Russia would no longer see its national security under threat.

    Nor do I think that America should be in the business of exporting righteousness. I do think that America has a moral responsibility to assist peaceful societies when threatened by evil regimes with assistance being proportionate to the threat.

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