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Home » New Hampshire statistics on COVID hospitalizations and the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated

New Hampshire statistics on COVID hospitalizations and the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated

The New Neo Posted on by

New Hampshire has been relatively unscathed by COVID up till now, so among the entire population – vaccinated and unvaccinated – there probably hasn’t been as much previous community exposure as in many other states. Also, most of the prior deaths in that state were in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

The governor and legislature of NH are Republican, and the state doesn’t have a COVID history of draconian measures, nor have there been calls for mandated vaccination. The state is basically purple, although right now, as I said, Republicans are in control, and it retains a bit of its libertarian history (“Live Free or Die”). The vaccination rate in the state is somewhere between 55% and 65%, which for New England is slightly low.

Presently the state is experiencing a spike in COVID cases (Delta, not Omicron) that gives New Hampshire the distinction of having the highest per capita COVID rate at the moment in the nation. That’s cases, and of course a case rate is almost meaningless without looking at the seriousness of those cases. The news there is not good for New Hampshire, which is also experiencing a higher hospitalization and death rate than before, as well as a higher proportion of serious cases in people under 60 and not in long-term care.

What interests me the most, and what caused me to write this post, is that New Hampshire is offering unusually complete statistics on the proportions of vaccinated to unvaccinated people who’ve been hospitalized for COVID (or perhaps “with” COVID, although New Hampshire being New Hampshire and not Massachusetts or New York, my guess is that it’s more “from COVID” than “with,” as compared to other states).

The pattern is clear: the unvaccinated are heavily represented in the serious cases, much more than would be expected based on their proportion in the population. Somewhere between 35 and 45 percent of New Hampshirites are unvaccinated, but here are hospitalization statistics; you can take a look for yourselves.

As I’ve written many times before, I defend anyone’s right to remain unvaccinated for any reason whatsoever. But it does trouble me that quite a few unvaccinated people in New Hampshire are dying who might otherwise have lived, had they been vaccinated. Of course, some vaccinated people are dying, too, but it seems clear that vaccination confers a significant benefit over nonvaccination for those who actually do contract COVID, at least in New Hampshire at the moment.

That really does seem to be the case, although of course with COVID statistics it’s hard to know for sure.

[NOTE: By the way, neighboring Maine is experiencing a similar surge, although I can’t find any reports in Maine about the vaccination status of the hospitalized. Maine has a similar relative low previous community exposure to COVID, much like New Hampshire, although its politics are far more blue, and the government there has been much more aggressive about masking and that sort of thing. That part doesn’t seem to matter, as far as I can tell.]

Comments

New Hampshire statistics on COVID hospitalizations and the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated — 72 Comments

  2. According to covidestim.org NH has a ‘percent ever infected’ of 45% and the state of WA has a ‘percent ever infected’ of 44% and yet NH is high and WA is flattish.

    These things are super complex and it is becoming more obvious that the vaccine is not the way out but only a moderate part of it.

    Now, should people over 65 get vaccinated yes they should.

    I didn’t dig into the data of NH but do they have age breakdowns for who the unvaccinated are and are they the unvaccinated ones being hospitalized?

  3. Pingback:Noted in Passing: To Vax or Not to Vax? These Are the Stats

  4. These things are seasonal by region and the sooner we realize that the better off we will all be.

    Check out rates in the mountain west states and the south. Low, very low.

    Individuals can take precautions for them self but even that will probably not work on a community level.

  5. Due to some close friends living there, NH is one of the states I’ve been tracking since the start. It’s true the delta wave is close to 50% higher in cases than the alpha wave for NH.

    Below is the link to the actual state data. Note the 7 day average is trending down for new cases. I actually use a 14 day average which I think better represents recovery times. My average is just beginning to show a downtrend, but with the omicron it will probably rebound.

    The state data doesn’t offer any numbers on vax vs unvax and hospitalization. The data listed is from a survey that the TV (WMUR) station did of the hospitals themselves and is from December 10. I’m not saying the TV station data is wrong, but noting it’s not an comprehensive survey.

    All the states I monitor offer about the same level of information, NH is not really that different from the others in what they are posting.

    https://www.covid19.nh.gov/dashboard

    And for those who want to compare other state data:

    https://data.ct.gov/Health-and-Human-Services/COVID-19-Tests-Cases-Hospitalizations-and-Deaths-S/rf3k-f8fg

    https://data-cdphe.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/80193066bcb84a39893fbed995fc8ed0_0/explore

    https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard#cases-over-time

    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

    http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

  6. physicsguy:

    For me, the case numbers aren’t the point. The hospitalization numbers, and especially vaccinated versus unvaccinated, are the point. I see no particular reason to doubt the statistics on that, and they are certainly the best we have. To me, one of the reasons they seem real is that they are quite similar from hospital to hospital. Unless all NH hospitals were conferring with each other to lie about their statistics – which I very much doubt, especially in NH – the statistics seem to reflect a basic reality.

  7. neo,

    But as you said in your post it still is unclear the ‘with’ and ‘from’ percentages of the hospitalizations and maybe you can guess that the ‘from’ may be higher because of low vaxx it is only a guess.

    As I said the other day they know all this info but very rarely and begrudgingly do they release it.

    They could quiet down the loud mouths like me if they just were totally open with the data but they never are.

  8. Griffin, I’m not convinced that authorities do have the “with” and “from” COIVD numbers.

  9. The key statistic that is usually ignored is that those under 60 who are obese are the ones at risk. Other than BMI, I don’t know how to analyze this but it is a big factor in the younger (than 65)_ cases.

    Unfortunately, all data on this virus is contaminated by politics.

  10. Kate,

    From what I’ve read at sites like Healthy Skeptic and from some very informed people on twitter like Phil Kerpen most states do have that info. It comes in the form of why they were admitted to the hospital and they are required to record that for all kinds of insurance and medicare reasons.

    Admitted for a broken leg they test you like everybody and you are positive now would be called ‘with’.

    What they may be doing is being purposefully deceptive by not actively separating out the relevant data. Then they say ‘golly gee we just don’t know’.

  11. The other thing with hospitalizations is watch out for percentages because virtually every state right now has less available staffed beds than a year ago because of mandates.

    So the ‘hospitals are overflowing’ line is often misleading. Maybe they wouldn’t be if you didn’t fire or run off a bunch of staff in the middle of your ‘crisis’.

    Then they sucker in well meaning people who are worried about hospitals overflowing.

  14. Neo, I know cases are not the most important statistic. The reason I track that so closely is because the yahoos in the government misuse that number so much. I’m trying to stay on top of what they are doing, or going to do.

  15. Griffin:

    But NH Is a pretty straight-shooting state and I don’t think it messes around much with its statistics in that manner (“with” vs “from”). There is no political payoff for it, because the people in charge of the state are not into draconian measures. They tend to be quite hands-off.

  16. Perhaps the higher hospitalization rate and death rate has to do with the practice of medicine in the state. In some areas of the country, the physicians are aggressively treating patients very early with ivermectin and hydroxy chloroquine and by doing so avoiding unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths. Too bad the statistics don’t explain what’s going on in terms of medical care patterns in the state, otherwise that would shed some light on whether the problem is self inflicted by the medical system.

    Well evidence-based medicine has been a blessing in some cases it has not. In particular our government and media have acted in concert to prevent physicians from trying any alternative treatments – even going so far as to threaten pulling their medical licenses if they stray away from evidence-based medicine practices regarding Covid.

  17. One thing to keep in mind is that the population centers in both NH and ME-Manchester and Portland–are quite close to Boston and increasingly have more in common with Eastern MA than the essentially rural north and Western MA–It’s why they used to be solid Republican and are now purple.
    Not sure how this affects the Covid “stats,” but it is both a physical and political reality.

  19. Tommy Jay writes: “Food for thought though.”

    One of the most persistent problems of the plague years is that there has not only been way too much food for thought, most of it has been composed of high fructose corn syrup and carbs.

  21. boatbuilder:

    Portland Maine is not close to Boston, certainly not in New England terms. Minimum two hours’ drive if there’s no traffic, and there is always traffic.

  22. Magnus:

    The hospitalization rates in NH have gone up significantly, and I don’t think treatments have changed one way or another. So I don’t think that treatment is the issue in this case.

  24. Far more effective at avoiding hospitalization than being injected with mRNA is having a serum vitamin D level of 50 or greater. Yet another study from last week shows ZERO hospital admissions in people with Covid and that level.
    Elderly and obese are two groups known to have low vitamin D levels.

    Also , outpatient treatment with either HCQ or IVM reduces hospitalizations by 60-80%, depending on the study. Absolutely tragic that people aren’t being treated.

  25. @Griffin:It comes in the form of why they were admitted to the hospital and they are required to record that for all kinds of insurance and medicare reasons.

    You are exactly right. Medical claims all come with up to dozens of hilariously specific diagnosis codes* indicating not only what they are in for but what else they have and what their history has been.

    I guarantee that at every health insurance company someone has been looking at it. And that the distinction between “with COVID” and “because of COVID” is quite deliberately not made.

    The fact that insurance companies pay for health care does not mean they are not benefiting financially from the pandemic. The fact that hospitals get paid to provide care does not mean they aren’t being hurt financially by the pandemic.

    I know these things because I work at an insurance company, but if you look online for industry publications you can find out some of this stuff. Just stay away from anything intended for mainstream media.

    *My favorite ICD-10 diagnosis code is V95.43XD, “Spacecraft collision injuring occupant, subsequent encounter”.

  26. Interesting statistics and people would be well-advised to factor them into their personal risk calculations — especially the aged, obese / metabolic syndrome folks and with a dollop of cream and a cherry on top if living somewhere General Winter likes to put down roots.

    Not all official statistics are lies. Not all contrarian Libertarian / Rightist positions are correct or even sane.

    If I were stuck on a desert island with only gefilte fish to eat, I’d eat the @#$%ing stuff and not lecture everyone at great length about Sabbatai Zevi … or Fauci.

    Any other time and place however … 😛

  27. I understand that there are 3 different vaccines, if thats the right term, and one has recently been flagged for causing strokes. All three have complications that are possible. Has one vaccine been more effective, or have less side effects than the others? I can’t find that information at all.
    It seems clear that being vaccinated, affords you a better chance of surviving, if you are in an at risk group.

  28. @Jim:All three have complications that are possible. Has one vaccine been more effective, or have less side effects than the others?

    As a young-ish healthy person, I spend as much time worrying about death by COVID as I do about death by lightning or by shark.

    Death by COVID vaccine side effect is something even less probable.

    For young children, both death by COVID and bad vaccine side effect are vanishingly rare, and I worry a lot more about death by automobile accident on the way to the vaccination, which is way more likely for your child than dying of COVID. And that’s why I oppose vaccinating young children for COVID.

  29. I grew up during the last real epidemic, polio. we didn’t mask, didn’t change much at all.and that disease had real consequences.
    If i were youngish, or had kids now, I would never mask them, or expect them to stay away from school or sports.
    When you are in your 70’s, with a couple of health issues, its not something you can be cavalier about.

  31. People need to rethink their stance on vaccines. First, Omicron will go through everyone regardless of vaccine status. Unless some cities go down like northern Italy did first wave, causing people to seriously change behavior. They might not get sick from it, but sure as hell looks like they will spread it.

    Second. Look at how people launched cybers attacks on the public health authorities in South Africa and Maryland. Look at the reports of how Omicron looks a bit suspicious. We don’t need to believe those reports, but the possibility of nihilist actors dumping fuel on the fire is a real one. So even if you’re not getting vaccinated, do yourself a favor and be in a position to shelter in place for a few weeks.

  32. “I see no particular reason to doubt the statistics on that” neo

    Uh… its an ABC affiliate using “Data from WHO, NH DHHS as of December 17, 2021” if that doesn’t introduce a red flag…
    It also directly contradicts the following;

    “Vaccinated English adults under 60 are dying at twice the rate of unvaccinated people the same age”
    “And have been for six months. This chart may seem unbelievable or impossible, but it’s correct, based on weekly data from the British government.” Alex Berenson
    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adults-under-60

    “Absolutely tragic that people aren’t being treated.” Lee

    Check out the chart comparing African countries treating Covid-19 with Ivermectin and those refusing to allow its use.
    https://citizenfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ivermectin-africa.jpg

    Given that disparity, at the least ‘voluntary manslaughter’… rather than “tragic” is the more accurate descriptive.
    “Synonyms for TRAGIC: deplorable, distressful, distressing, grievous, heartbreaking, heartrending, lamentable, regrettable”

  33. @Geoffrey Britain:“Vaccinated English adults under 60 are dying at twice the rate of unvaccinated people the same age”

    I looked at your link. It’s not comparing people “the same age”. It’s lumping all people 10-59 together, vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccinated population skews way older than the unvaccinated (very few 10 yr olds are vaccinated).

    It’s a classic example of lying with a graph…you’d have to normalize both sets to the same age distribution at minimum.

    And if people who are vulnerable like obese and chronically ill people are more likely to get vaccinated then you have a very different risk profile between those two groups.

  34. Whether or not the vaccines confer a health benefit (and they may well do so for many people), I’ve yet to see any evidence of a benefit for *public* health. As far as I’m aware, the vaccinated are as likely (if not more, to the extent their symptoms are milder) as the unvaccinated to spread the virus. So there is no justification for government mandates (other than paternalism), or for otherwise treating the unvaccinated as pariahs.

    In New York you can’t enter a restaurant or entertainment venue if you haven’t been vaccinated. I’m guessing they will soon require people to have boosters to enter (some already are). That only makes sense if there’s a public health benefit.

  35. One of the first things I remember Kevin Roche saying at his Healthy Skeptic site was that eventually the death age strat would return to vaxxed elderly just like at the beginning it was unvaxxed elderly because vaccinations are almost always less effective in the elderly because they are immune deficient simply because of age.

    A vaxxed 85 year old is more likely to die than unvaxxed 50 or 60 year old because they are 85 vax be damned.

    That is big part of why the vaxxed are getting sick and dying more and more now. When a disease targets the most vulnerable only so much can be done to protect them.

  36. neo, your analysis of NH data fits well with my wife’s experience with the Delta variant at her hospital this summer in Houston. She’s a manager of a ward. The Delta variant is bad and affects the unvaccinated worse than the vaccinated to the point that it was pretty clear who would die and who would likely survive. Understand, if you are in the hospital with Covid, you are already very sick. They had 50 to 100 people in the ER for over a week and ended up having the local FD provide triage so nurses could take care of the 250% capacity in beds (they changed the entire single bed per room hospital to double occupancy and reopened a previously closed section of the hospital).

    I don’t care what you think of the vaccine or the government. I’ve heard from enough people who will read what I just wrote and claim I’m a Karen or something else, despite nothing in there saying they ought to wear a mask or get the vaccine. At this point, I no longer care if you want to remain ignorant and take your chances. What I will note is that the vaccine seems to be useless as a prevention from getting Covid. Omicron seems to afflict the vaccinated more often than the unvaccinated. However, the vaccine does seem to work in mitigating the more deadly effects of Covid. The vaccine itself has problems, and I read some report this week of 1,200 deaths attributed to the vaccine. What I’ve seen of the Delta variant, Covid still killed far more unvaccinated people.

    The most tragic thing my wife witnessed were people between 30 and 50 that eventually gave up. They spent a day or two writing letters to friends and family. Then they asked to be removed from their ventilators against medical advice. This wasn’t one case over the summer but a half dozen on her floor. She lost one of her nurses that was unvaccinated due to a pregnancy. The baby was taken at 25 weeks and is still alive. Mom lasted 3 months on ECMO before expiring.

  37. Leland-
    Totally agree, similar in our TX city. Last summer, unvaxxed people were dying from Delta, esp older and obese. Fortunately that wave passed.
    But, that is as far as the data go.
    Vaxxing was effective against the alpha, effective against dying with Delta. With the current omicron, no effect. Maybe facilitate spreading if it minimizes symptoms, which may paradoxically have a public health benefit if omicron persists in being very contagious, producing natural immunity, and very not dangerous.
    I’m naturally immune from a pre-vax “mild” WuFlu, then 2 Pfizer jabs. No more for me Late 60s, not obese, no chronic illness.
    I wish my DIL had not jabbed my grandkids, but she’s a leftist.

  38. At this point, I no longer care if you want to remain ignorant and take your chances. What I will note is that the vaccine seems to be useless as a prevention from getting Covid. Omicron seems to afflict the vaccinated more often than the unvaccinated. However, the vaccine does seem to work in mitigating the more deadly effects of Covid.

    It probably does. But with all the risks and unknowns, is it better than Vitamin D? I have heard it claimed (by MDs and other knowledgeable people), that virtually no one is dying from Covid who has a Vitamin D level over 50 ng/ml. Yet our leaders are bullying and trying to coerce everyone to get vaccinated and not even looking at this simple alternative. Maybe a serious study would show the vaccine is better, but at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, why isn’t this getting more attention? The studies are out there, for example here: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33744444/

    Fauci reportedly takes megadoses of Vitamin D, but would rather berate people for not getting a 3rd dose of a possibly risky vaccine than just tell people to do as he does.

  39. Is natural immunity being addressed in these numbers? Of course not. Are these hospitals allowed to administer hydroxochloroquine or ivermectin? Of course not. Evil.

  40. It can be misleading to compare vaccinated with unvaccinated without considering the age factor, because both covid risk and vax rate increase with age. This article explains the problem and analyzes the Israeli data for vaccine effectiveness against severe cases on an age-stratified basis.

    https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

    Beware of Simpson’s Paradox.

  42. It probably does. But with all the risks and unknowns, is it better than Vitamin D?

    I don’t know, but I understand your question. I was taking Vitamin D supplements before Covid and continue to do so. I’ve added Zinc and for the holidays additional Vitamin C to my morning routine. I haven’t been sick in 3 years, and that includes this past couple of weeks with my daughter and her husband visiting twice while sick with strep. I think the efforts by the government and media to downplay normal precautions and, worse, downplay OTC covid treatments are nothing but corruption. That doesn’t mean the vaccine is not helpful, nor does it account for what clearly happened during the Delta outbreak here in Texas.

    My personal take on the vaccine as presented by President Trump was in line with Trump’s other initiatives related to “right-to-try”. People complaining about lack of studies is on Trump for setting aside those roadblocks and red tape that often prevented those who could use new medication from trying them, when the potential harms were no worse than the disease. For those over 60, taking the vaccine is a much lower risk than chancing covid. For all ages and particularly under 60, it should be a personal choice based on knowledge of one’s own medical history. The main thing is thanks to President Trump, the vaccine is an option for those who rather chance it rather than covid. I am vaccinated, but I waited several months to get my own sense of the risks.

    Please note, making the vaccine available early is good. What has happened since Trump left is, again, corruption as I see it. I agree with this: Maybe a serious study would show the vaccine is better, but at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, why isn’t this getting more attention?

  43. “It can be misleading to compare vaccinated with unvaccinated without considering the age factor, because both covid risk and vax rate increase with age.” David Foster

    The problem I have with this is that the study that garnered EUA stated one thing: one would not get symptomatic COVID-19. That was the only affirmative in the across the board analysis, whereas hospitalizations or transmissions were stated as not determinable. This is from a BMJ article of October 2020 that I have posted twice in the past. The additional issue is that upon receiving EUA the control group of the continuing study (into 2023) was allowed to get the shots. In other words there is no control group. So now, the word is, you will have a milder case. An unserious case was true of greater than 97% of people before the shots so how can that be measured accurately (studies) when we already know the original one was breached. I know, we are to trust “The Science” otherwise known as Dr. Fauci, a grand leader of this scam. He is vested in many a pharmaceutical and no doubt the Moderna vax, the one our own government is partners with. People used to understand “follow the money”. If you do from the beginning of the first lockdown, it is quite a road, piled up with destroyed small private businesses, rent moratoriums, checks for the non-working and on and on. And as of Friday we can add a rogue administration acting like it owns every private business with 100 or more employees. All this brought to us by the same players that manufactured the Russia hoax etc etc.

  44. Sharon W…the study I linked has nothing to do with Fauci or with the studies done for the vaccine approval. It is based on Israeli data, and the analysis was done by an American professor of biostatistics.

  45. My sons have been beating on me to get the booster, which I’ve resisted since I tested positive for having Covid antibodies. My older son and his wife, both twice vaccinated and boosted since before Thanksgiving, came down with nasty cases of Covid last Friday. They are still insisting that I get the booster. They just know that their illness would have been worse without all three shots. To me, it means that the “vaccine” is really just therapy, like taking aspirin, that wears off and doesn’t cause the body to generate enough antibodies to matter after six months.

    As for all those statistics, the only ones that matter are death rate by age group and mean age of death. Does anyone know the recent numbers? In fall of 2020, pre vaccines, the average age of death was 82 in a state where life expectancy was 80.

  46. But David Foster, my point is the originating study was breached after the EUA so how can any study be truly trusted? We are talking about gathering data. Right now I personally know 4 people who have tested positive for COVID. All were fully vaxed. Thankfully they are having mild cases, but that was true pre-vax approval. And I especially question the way science is being applied here because in Los Angeles I cannot go and get my hair colored because I am not vaxed and refuse to get a test to do so. I’m convinced the same politicos vested in the vax are vested in all these testing centers that test the healthy and are now required to “fill in the blank”. With the serum blood test proof that I have the IGG antibodies I am a threat to no one. This based on actual observance of science data of the past. However, the people that are vaxed are as much a potential carrier of the variant or any other thing but that passport is now necessary to go to salons, gyms, bars, restaurants etc. Really??? No science is involved at all. And that is what we need to come to understand. The post of the 2 doctors that Neo shared early on was the best thing I ever watched regarding pandemics. The doctors said the most important factor in response to a pandemic is architecture. The moment one goes from floor 1 to 2 in any facility, protectection has been breached. Clearly our government (especially the trillions of dollars CDC) never was serious about this virus. But I will be getting my hair done this afternoon, at my home, just as my stylist of 25 years did during the lockdown. Cash, no tax for the state. That’s how it’s done in totalitarian cultures. Ask Nancy Pelosi and Governor Newsom.

  47. Sharon W,

    This has been one of my main points when people say ‘but it protects against serious illness’. That is not how this was sold it was sold as preventing getting COVID and there are many, many videos of Fauci and all the rest saying it was 100% effective and the like. Hell, idiot Biden was saying this in July, about five months ago.

    How many youngish people would have got the vaccine if they knew they could still get it (as early as 5 months later) and could still transmit and would still be being tested for it and punished for testing positive for it when the reality is even if they got it while unvaxxed it was very, very likely to be a mild to moderate cold at worst.

    Some would have but a lot wouldn’t. Why bother.

    Now the public health bureaucrats have lost the trust of a large minority of the people.

  48. Sharon W,

    There is a massive industry that has been built up around COVID from pharmaceutical (not just vax pharmas but also test makers) to massive support systems for those that test positive then throw in all the businesses that have greatly benefited in the disruption of the normal life from the before times.

    They have great incentive to keep this going for as long as they can.

  50. MAJOR LOGIC FAIL!

    Why would anyone assume that the two groups — vaxxed vs. unvaxxed — have the same health profile? They don’t.

    If you want to evaluate the jab, compare two groups of relatively healthy people divided by jab status. But do not include those people who are so old, so frail, so sick that they have one foot in the grave with the unvaxxed group. It skews your numbers to the point of being meaningless.

    There are those so old and frail that their doctors won’t allow them to get the jab because it could kill them. Yes, they are technically unvaxxed. But we don’t have any people this old and frail in the vaxxed group. Don’t compare apples and oranges.

    Is anyone surprised that the people about to die end up in the hospital and end up dying? Why would anyone think that this tells us a damn thing about the efficacy of the vax?

  51. It is pleasing to see people making up their minds on the evidence and principles, rather than the more usual thought process of:

    1. Pick a public figure whom you hate, and
    2. Announce that whatever he recommends is stupid and you will do the opposite.

    E.g., Fauci says the vaccination works; thus it must be a dangerous failure;
    Trump says Ivermectin works, so it must be a horse de-wormer whose use is stupid.

  52. To me, it means that the “vaccine” is really just therapy, like taking aspirin, that wears off and doesn’t cause the body to generate enough antibodies to matter after six months.

    I had 2 shots of Pfizer and tested negative twice for antibodies. I have gotten the booster and will get an antibody test this week. I’m also wary what lack of antibodies mean. If the vaccine gives antibodies, then it should work as a prevention, but it really seems to only mitigate the worse effects.

  55. stan:

    However, that should have more vaccinated people dying than unvaccinated. In NH, the situation is quite the reverse. So even though the unvaccinated are younger and presumably healthier to begin with, in NH they are getting sicker and dying more than those older, frailer people who have been vaccinated.

  56. Griffin…I wonder what the average cabinet minister or elected politician thinks modeling IS, and whether they have any experience at all with its strengths and limitations?

    At least people in business have mostly had some experience with modeling of financial results via spreadsheets, and have developed some level of appropriate skepticism.

  57. Leland:

    That is so sad. The situation you describe with the young people is particularly tragic.

  58. David Foster,

    For business worst case is always company goes bankrupt but for some govt bureaucrat that is never a consideration.

    That Neal Ferguson guy is back at it he put out some crazy model a few days ago and then massively downgraded it like two days later.

    Thankfully it seems that the modelers have lost some power in the US but it seems they still have Boris’ ear in the UK.

  59. As i have mentioned, hospital protocol is to give waxinated ivrrmectin and hcq. The unwaxinated are given remdesivir sedation and ventilators. Remdesivir kills 25% in the hiv trial fauci ran. They know. Ventilators are near 100% kill shot when people have rrspiratory blocks and sedation kills their metabolism and respiration.

  60. Wow CNN reporting that the administration may try to shift the focus away from ‘cases, cases, cases’ and instead focus on the number of serious outcomes.

    Lots of thoughts on that.

    1) That’s going to be hard because the cultists have been so brainwashed.
    2) They are really worried about the election in 10 months and know the people have no appetite for serious restrictions (they even lost Chris Cizzilla or whatever at CNN this weekend).
    3) They are starting to realize the data from SA, UK, Denmark is showing this is going to be closer to the common cold than a death sentence.

    Of course they are also going to go all vax, vax, booster, vax, booster, booster, vax but reality might be winning out finally.

  61. The VA released a study of 30,000+ hospital admissions of people ‘”hospitalized with COVID-19″ and learned that over 50% of those were primarily hospitalized for something else.

    The link indicated “vaccinated” vs. “unvaccinated” but we don’t really know who all is on those pools. There is always this assumption that the “unvaccinated” just don’t want to get vaccinated.

    If I had an issue involving a compromised immune system, or had had GBS, I’m not sure I’d get vaccinated. And if I had a compromised immune system, my likelihood of a serious negative reaction with any infection is pretty high.

    It’s interesting: If you look at the CDC for who should NOT get all the other vaccines they have listed: MMR, DTaP, Shingles, Hep, HPV, etc., each vaccine has a list of who shouldn’t get out. No such list exists for the COVID vaccine.

    Really? The COVID vaccine is the ONLY totally and completely safe vaccine around? Safe for everyone and all? Wow! Science is truly amazing!!

  62. For “unusually complete statistics”, I find them lacking. Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t see any information on the average age of death, and the death statistics are either too tiny to read (the cases charts which for some reason show the deaths on the same scale) or are cumulative numbers (1,836 out of a total population in NH of approx 1.38M in 2020, or 0.13% in 21 months).

    The charts do show that 2/3rd of the deaths are those who were in care facilities, and thus likely had multiple co-morbidities and a short life expectancy to begin with. So did they die *from* COVID, or *with* COVID?

    Is my risk of death from reduced with vaccination? Maybe. But it’s likely reducing one very small risk to an even smaller risk. And once vaccinated, as far as we know, your body is forever modified to produce the modified spike protein. And we still have no idea what the long term effects are of that. So in my opinion, not getting vaccinated is a rational decision for the vast majority of the population, and a reasonable choice even for those at most risk from COVID.

    We’d be in a better position to make rational decisions if the whole thing hadn’t been so politicized and poisned that we can no longer trust many sources of information. And very little of what I’ve seen can be reasonably described as “complete”.

  63. For “unusually complete statistics”, I find them lacking.

    My reaction as well. To really address Neo’s point you’d need the deaths and hospitalizations broken out by age group, vax status, and, ideally whether one had already had covid. It probably is the case that the vax gives the healthy and under 60 group (already at very low risk) a slightly lower risk of serious illness, though at some unknown risk of side effects. They have the data, why not make it available, and let people make informed decisions?

  65. “with covid” and “because of covid”….bad things that happen usually involve multiple causes, not just a single cause. Read NTSB reports on aircraft and railroad accidents for some examples.

  66. haven’t read it carefully yet, but suggests that infections from that variant are *not* milder than those from Delta.

    It mainly finds that vaccinations and prior infection do not offer protection from omicron. Limited data on severity of omicron, so “no evidence.” But I’ve read that S. African data support substantially less severity.

    And this is Neil Ferguson again, so take it all with a few large grains of salt.

  67. Imperial College London predicted 40 million deaths from covid (if left unchecked) in the first year. It was their modelling that led to massive UK lockdowns followed by the professor running the modelling, Neil Ferguson, to sneak out during the lockdown to have sex with his mistress. As Jimmy notes above, take it with a few large grains of salt, add water, gargle for about a minute, and then spit the damn thing out.

  68. A marked disparity between official and popular publication of data and conclusions. The official data is remarkably sparse and uncorrelated.

    with or because virus

    The distinction matters in that people who would have survived the disease are aborted at high rates with certain treatments, including: intubation (known from controlled trials), Remdesivir (known from historical use), delayed (e.g. therapeutic, symptom relief), etc.

  69. Therapeutic variables (vitamin D, zinc, ivermectin, etc.) and vaccine adverse events (including death) are crucial to getting an accurate handle on the overall Covid picture. Statistics without that vital data are worthless.

  70. For what it’s worth, the numbers from the NH hospitals (vaxxed, unvaxxed) are borne out by what I have been hearing from my friends and acquaintances here in Texas. These include ICU nurses, floor nurses, pulmonologists, and heart specialists all in a regional hospital setting.

    Comorbidities aside, the vax, especially for older people, appears to lessen the potential severity of the infection, consistently. The COVID patients in the ICU are overwhelmingly unvaccinated, consistently – here, it’s normally well over 90%. Comorbidities, especially cirrhosis (drinkers) and obesity, have a huge deleterious effect on chances of survival.

    There hasn’t been a huge loss of staff here, but there has been attrition via exhaustion. Routine cancellations of specialist appointments have only recently been stopped; For the past 6 months or so, the specialists that could help out with COVID patients have been diverted to work the ICU.

  71. ust ran across this paper on Omicron…haven’t read it carefully yet, but suggests that infections from that variant are *not* milder than those from Delta.

    From November 8 to December 1, the seven-day average of reported cases in South Africa increased by 3,500. From November 26 to December 19, the seven day average of daily deaths increased by… nil.

  72. Neo,

    you got it completely backwards. Go back and read again.

    The old, frail and sick CAN’T get the jab. They are being lumped into the unvaxxed group. And they are dying.

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