And speaking of science: the study on which the CDC based its new mask recommendations
There’s some news about the study that purports to explain why the CDC changed its mask recommendations to saying that even vaccinated people need to wear masks indoors in higher-COVID areas. Here’s a link to the actual study results.
I noticed a couple of interesting things on reading it. The first is that it’s a single study set in Barnstable County, Massachusetts after a series of July 4th holiday celebrations that drew many people to outside and inside venues in order to celebrate. The second is that almost all the COVID patients were male, and the median age was 42. That struck me as atypical (especially the huge male skew). But knowing the Cape somewhat it doesn’t take but a moment to realize that Barnstable County is dominated by Provincetown, which in turn is highly gay-friendly and has long been a center of gay culture. So of course the population there for the holidays is going to be heavily male and perhaps younger than typical in most towns. This may not matter at all in terms of the study’s results, but it’s a somewhat atypical population and that should be noted.
This is of interest:
The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak. As population-level vaccination coverage increases, vaccinated persons are likely to represent a larger proportion of COVID-19 cases. Second, asymptomatic breakthrough infections might be underrepresented because of detection bias. Third, demographics of cases likely reflect those of attendees at the public gatherings, as events were marketed to adult male participants; further study is underway to identify other population characteristics among cases, such as additional demographic characteristics and underlying health conditions including immunocompromising conditions…Finally, Ct values obtained with SARS-CoV-2 qualitative RT-PCR diagnostic tests might provide a crude correlation to the amount of virus present in a sample and can also be affected by factors other than viral load.††† Although the assay used in this investigation was not validated to provide quantitative results, there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar. However, microbiological studies are required to confirm these findings.
So if I’m interpreting this correctly, the study didn’t directly measure viral load, but the researchers concluded from Ct values (see this for an explanation of what a Ct value is) that there might be a correlation with viral loads.
Note also point number three, which I’ll repeat here:
Third, demographics of cases likely reflect those of attendees at the public gatherings, as events were marketed to adult male participants; further study is underway to identify other population characteristics among cases, such as additional demographic characteristics and underlying health conditions including immunocompromising conditions.
They don’t say exactly what they’re talking about, but reading between the lines I infer that they are talking about gay men and the possibility of “immunocompromising conditions” such as AIDS, HIV, or medication for either of those things. None of this reflects on gay people themselves, but I question whether it’s wise to extrapolate from a single study at all, and certainly from one involving a particular demographic that is very possibly atypical in relevant ways such as immune status.
Other interesting findings include this: “Among persons with breakthrough infection, 274 (79%) reported signs or symptoms, with the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia, and fever” – in other words, basic flulike symptoms. Only five people were hospitalized (four of them vaccinated) and none died. So the hospitalization rate in a symptomatic population (which was almost certainly not everyone infected) was about one and a half percent among symptomatic breakthrough patients, which does not seem at all high. The death rate so far is zero.
It was always stated that between 5 and 10 percent of vaccinated people were vulnerable to getting COVID, depending on the type of immunization used. So these figures alone don’t seem to justify what the CDC is doing. It would be helpful to also know how many people attended the festivities, but all I’ve read is “thousands.” That covers a lot – could be a few thousand or hundreds of thousands. Without knowing that, we can’t know what the infection rate was among the unvaccinated or the vaccinated, and whether either was higher than expected or about what might be expected.
At this point, no rational and sane person should pay the slightest attention to any “guidance” emanating from the CDC. Neither Walensky nor Fauci has acted in such a manner as to inspire the slightest confidence in the oracular statements issued by either one. The entire focus of the illegitimate Harris/Biden administration, and of the corrupt public-health establishment, is upon beating a submissive citizenry into compliance with any mandate whatsoever (regardless of the actual science) and upon demonizing all dissenters and dissidents as “extremists” and “domestic terrorists” and “enemies of the state” who fully deserve to be gradually stripped of all their rights.
Andrew Sullivan at one time owned property in Provincetown. He gives a description of various venues there and what they’re like on the 4th of July. Sullivan said he’s too old to attend that sort of thing and at his age he doesn’t care for crowds. Per Sullivan, Provincetown has a f/t resident population of about 3,000 but the number on site will balloon to 40,000 at certain times of the year. They’re all packed into clubs like sardines breathing on each other.
No above-board agency would make policy based on this sort of cherry-picking. What’s the reason for these scams?
This entire thing is ridiculous. There are already a few signs that this rise in ‘cases’ is peaking just like they always do. The same pattern plays out over and over but at lower levels every time and in this case with very low death totals.
It all gets so tiresome with the hysterical (and quickly debunked) tales of overwhelmed hospitals and young people on their death beds claiming either they didn’t believe it was real or something about Trump. Or the evergreen about refrigerator trucks to stack the corpses.
18 months in and it’s the same old thing.
Somehow I doubt there was much social distancing happening at the after-parties…IYKWIMAITYD
For the CDC to make a such sweeping change in mask recommendations based on one flawed study makes no sense, especially when one considers the negative physical and psychological effects mask wearing has on children and most adults. I’m convinced that the CDC knows it, and this is just another excuse to keep the public submissive and afraid.
Unfortunately it seems to be working, since I’ve already started noticing an increase in people wearing masks in public places.
I went to WinCo a little while ago and I would say there was definitely an increase in people with masks. Maybe 75/25 masked where it had been about the reverse last week.
Again, if you want to wear a mask fine but it says something about you and if you are under 60 or so it’s not a good something IMO.
Still haven’t seen a place requiring masks that wasn’t already but that’ll probably change.
Possibly for the first time in human history, we can transmit a disease we don’t have to those who are immunized against it. Let’s pause to savor the mass hallucination while it lasts.
Let’s do a thought experiment wherein we no longer have a test for COVID: Take the Provincetown result and one can only conclude there was a bit of a flu going around that weekend. Maybe a bit unusual for the summer, but with a whole bunch of people crowded to together in the venues, not at all surprising some got it. No one died so this wouldn’t even make the 6pm news in Boston I would bet.
And for this we mask up the whole country and threaten more lockdowns. The mass hysteria we saw last year is coming back full force. I saw it the last few days on my liberal friends FB posts. They actually seem happy to have this all going on again….gives them a chance to show how smart and virtuous they are compared to all the rest of us Neanderthals.
Luc Montaniere(sp?) the French virologist, who won a Nobel prize for isolating HIV, said quite early on that the modification to Covid looked like someone was trying to make a vaccine against HIV. There were some Indian scientists who came to the same conclusion independently.
If there’s going to be a population in MA with HIV, it’s going to be in PTown. It’s a real circus in the summer. If you want to mingle with 6’2” men built like a Patriots linebacker wearing a tight skirt, fishnet stockings, and 4” heels it’s the place to be.
From my daughter, with a PhD in a health-related field: “What a bunch of crap. Extremely weak data. “
“For the CDC to make a such sweeping change in mask recommendations based on one flawed study makes no sense”
It makes perfect sense when you consider that masks have become a personal/political totem which signifies “I’m smart, not like those Trump supporters!”
Mike
MBunge:
No scientific sense, that is.
As Tucker noted, the Wuhan virus has been very good to the Democrats and they are going to ride it into the 2022 election. The recall election here in California is going to be another all mail-in fraud fest.
By the by, anybody remember the mini-backlash that eventually arose to all “The Greatest Generation” hagiography? About how they were all a bunch of racists and sexists who really didn’t deserve credit for just surviving some global calamities?
Well, this pandemic has been our Great Depression, our World War II, our Cold War. I don’t think anybody’s going to be writing any books in the future about how wonderful we all are.
Mike
MBunge,
When you consider that Covid but more importantly the response to it has affected just about every person in the world a pretty decent argument can be made that this has been the most impactful world wide event since…? Especially when you consider the short 18 month time frame. The Cold War took place over decades even the WWs were several years.
The impact of the response is not only the here and now it is the long term effects on children of lost schooling, the health impacts of missed routine health care, and of course virtually every other issue talked about today can be connected to the Covid response.
Unfathomable damage done.
So this is not the Indian study of people vaxxed with A-Z that failed peer review?
Hard to keep track of the flimsy studies these days …
JimNorCAl,
No, but they also got a bunch of other claims in there about mask effectiveness that are totally against any of the studies made prior to this.
It appears that somebody decided they wanted to do this and then they went looking for justification and this is the best they could do.
JimNorCal:
I believe the Indian one was listed too.
There’s a discussion of it all here, with a list.
Well that was quick.
Tomorrow the CDC eviction moratorium expires. 10 million Americans are facing eviction and those who haven’t family and friends to call upon who are able and willing to help, face homelessness.
FEMA camps? An explosion in Delta variant cases? Kids education even further disrupted?
10-11 million landlords with a not insignificant percentage facing bankruptcy, as presumably those tenets who can afford rent are settled in place and current on their bills… so where will landlords find paying tenants? Government subsidized housing for illegals?
Reportedly, global financial resources are being positioned to reap profits from the coming inflation. Coffee futures are up 91% since Biden took office. As Joe sixpack has to pay more for basics, the Bezos, Gates and Buffets of the world are positioning themselves to benefit. Once again, a clear case of Wall Street getting even richer riding on the back of Main Street.
Get ready for a bumpy ride. A perfect excuse for martial law and confiscation of American’s arms?
Persons with COVID-19 reported attending densely packed indoor and outdoor events at venues that included bars, restaurants, guest houses, and rental homes.
Densely packed indoor bars. What could go wrong? Would snorting cocaine off of a coughing stranger’s hand count as risky behavior?
Five were hospitalized; as of July 27, no deaths were reported. One hospitalized patient (age range = 50–59 years) was not vaccinated and had multiple underlying medical conditions. Four additional, fully vaccinated patients aged 20–70 years were also hospitalized, two of whom had underlying medical conditions.
So there were only two healthy vaccinated people hospitalized. Two.
I am a little surprised that the case count percentages of unvax/vax are about the same as the unvax/vax in the general population. I wonder how many of the positive tests are essentially incidental environmental covid contamination and do not indicate a real infection.
From Neo’s link,
Cts < 29 are strong positive reactions indicative of abundant target nucleic acid in the sample
Cts of 30-37 are positive reactions indicative of moderate amounts of target nucleic acid
Cts of 38-40 are weak reactions indicative of minimal amounts of target nucleic acid which could represent an infection state or environmental contamination
So this actually says that a Cts of 38 and up could be spurious contamination. I wouldn’t be surprised if 35 and up could be spurious contamination. The research paper really should display a chart of all the Cts’s actually measured.
The claim that there was no difference in Cts between vaccinated cases and unvaccinated cases is the grounds for saying that vaccinated people should mask up.
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These two MedCRAM videos about the Delta variant are not bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXV7i1yxu6c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RWGh19yTXw
Dr. Sehault here has been censored by Youtube in the past, so he might be slightly cowed by the experience.
To summarize,
He says that Delta is about 50% more contagious that the original strain.
Delta is about 80% worse in illness severity.
In vitro experiments show that blood serum from vaccinated (the big 3 or 4 vaxes) people is actually significantly more effective in neutralizing Delta than it is for the U.K. variant.
The increased illness severity is troubling, but it isn’t clear what that metric meant. It compared the variant with the S-gene (Delta) to the no S-gene variants (all the rest?). It could be that the severity had been declining with most of the older variants, and then jumped up with Delta.
(That Rockport Conservatives thing above, somehow magically appeared without my input.)
Great stuff Neo. Thanks. And today was my catch-up-on-covid day.
Art Deco is quite correct to call out cherry picking data fallacy.
But it gets worse. The entire turnabout in CDC policies are again based less in science than sheer speculation. UK experience suggests the opposite.
Here’s the rebuke from the Daily Mail:
Why the Delta Covid variant ISN’T really spreading as quickly as chickenpox
Top scientists today claimed the Indian ‘Delta’ variant is not spreading as quickly as chickenpox, despite US health officials saying it is just as contagious.
Data circulating within America’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) claimed people infected with the mutant strain can go on to infect eight others.
The same internal document also alleged that fully-vaccinated people can spread the Indian variant just as easily as unvaccinated people because they carry a similar amount of the virus in their nose and mouth.
Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, insisted the agency was ‘not crying wolf’, saying the situation was ‘serious’ and that the measures needed to tackle the spread of Delta were ‘extreme’.
But British scientists have questioned some of the claims made by the department, which has urged Americans to keep their coverings on indoors regardless of whether they’ve been vaccinated or not.
Professor David Livermore, an infectious diseases expert from the University of East Anglia, said vaccine-triggered immunity and the endless waves of Covid which nations have endured meant there were fewer susceptible people around for people to infect.
‘The US, like the UK, has substantial immunity from prior infection and from vaccination,’ he told MailOnline. ‘This will surely be a major drag on Delta’s spread, precluding (viral spread) numbers of that magnitude.’
And Professor Julian Tang, a virologist at Leicester University, said the theory was likely just ‘speculation’ because it was very difficult to track down the number of cases sparked by a single infection.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9844701/SAGE-Covid-variant-kill-one-three-people.html
These power mad bureaucrats ought be put down out of our misery and fired.
Bureaucrats love power.
Just like climate scientists, who cannot admit that their predictions have failed, the virologists and public health “experts” will not give up their power voluntarily. As Bob noted above, the Democrats have nothing else to run on in 2022, so they must make Covid the only issue.
@ Kate: From my daughter, with a PhD in a health-related field: “What a bunch of crap. Extremely weak data.” — indeed.
Facebook should shut down the CDC for publishing blatant misinformation.
Saw this at Breitbart while I was looking at John Hayward’s archive there:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/07/30/white-house-bails-coronavirus-briefings-public-revolts-against-cdc-guidance/
You may indulge in the obvious fisking at your leisure, especially of the final quotation from the DPS (where is the Psychotic Psaki?), but I was drawn to this comment:
#StillMyPresident
For a view of the CDC study that confirms the comments here –
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2021/07/30/a-gay-rights-activist-explains-why-the-cdcs-provincetown-study-may-be-fatally-flawed/
Bonus post – kinda sorta explains why Democrats must insist that math is racist and that’s why they don’t bother using it.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2021/07/30/choose-your-own-adventure-check-out-how-these-nbc-news-journos-spin-the-same-article-on-breakthrough-infections/
Is anyone surprised?
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2021/07/30/nancy-pelosi-defies-her-own-order-to-arrest-those-without-masks-n418893
Even better if they throw the staffer in the January Sixer Gitmo & then ban the relevant legislator from visiting.
Historical reminder: this is what the Democrats always do when they make a rule for the rest of us peons.
https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2021/07/30/kayleigh-mcenany-zings-nancy-pelosi-with-timely-flashback-after-she-violates-her-own-mask-mandate-n419058?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=-1
Does anyone at the CDC actually know what they are doing?
https://redstate.com/katepauldillon/2021/07/30/special-report-interview-walensky-is-losing-the-cdcs-credibility-n419210
Re: Provincetown….
I’m reminded of the time I let my girlfriend set up a romantic getaway weekend in NorCal and she made a reservation at a bed and breakfast in Guerneville. Which is not as big as P-Town, but probably more gay.
It worked out OK. The gays were mostly, “Oh…a straight couple. How cute!” It wasn’t far from Bodega Bay where “The Birds” was filmed, so we saw that too.
But, yeah, taking a general reading of public health from a July 4th holiday in Provincetown is a dodgy idea.
Asks at the end the question that some RedState posters (and others) have already given the answer to: it’s prepping the battlefield to enshrine the election variants the Democrats need to stay in control. But the details were interesting.
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/07/30/a-look-at-d-c-data-raises-big-questions-about-new-government-mask-directives-n419098
How often does the WaPo print anything that goes against the soon-to-be-trending Party Narrative? Why did they allow this post through?
Inquiring minds want to know.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/27/vaccinated-americans-are-more-likely-die-lightning-strike-than-covid-dont-bring-back-restrictions/
Good numbers inside for those who are not math-o-phobes.
The inimitable Wretchard hits lots of nails on the head reaching this conclusion:
https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2021/07/30/the-customer-satisfaction-theory-of-mandates-n1465967
A great essay, and a sound conclusion IF the goal of the Democrats were to end the Covid nightmare.
But that’s probably not their agenda.
Their agenda is always power.
I think some in the media sense the administration is making a big mistake here and is way out of touch with the public and that is why we are seeing things like the mild pushback at that press conference and a little more openness for dissent.
They aren’t really seriously being critical they are trying to nudge them back on track.
It’s also kind of interesting how similar this story this week has been to so many of the Trump era ‘bombshell’ stories with plenty of unnamed sources and facts and conclusions that can be quickly discredited.
Even have had Fusion Ken tweeting away about it.
Memories…
I think the Bee may be onto something here.
https://babylonbee.com/news/cdc-still-baffled-people-are-paying-attention-to-them
This picture is worth more than a thousand words.
https://notthebee.com/article/todays-cover-of-the-new-york-post-asks-the-questions-we-should-all-be-asking
AesopFan,
Dr. Walensky ‘s difficulty with basic science is an indication that she’s a political appointee. That’s almost certainly the case with the rest of the CDC’s top management.
It’s a virtual certainty that the CDC will continue to politicize the Covid variants because that’s what their political masters desire. No amount of railing against the lack of scientific legitimacy is going to change their propaganda because the Covid scamdemic is the fulcrum upon which they’re leveraging their strategy to gain one party control of America.
Good thread here.
https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/1421472686275022851
Dr. Walensky ‘s difficulty with basic science is an indication that she’s a political appointee.
Given her background, I doubt she’s having difficulties with the science. She’s a hospital administrator who knows those politics and not the political maelstrom she’s in. It’s a wager she’s getting hit with contradictory importunings from various factions in the administration, and she’s been told to carry water for the teachers’ unions and provide CYA for grisly characters like Gretchen Whitmer.
Today, more than a hundred years after the Great War, it is instructive to remember that at first men went over the top without prompting, then later with a lot of prompting, and finally under the threat of being shot. They became “selfish” not from some lack of moral fiber but because they learned that the experts underestimated the cost of frontal attacks. The generals did useless stuff and the privates noticed.
AesopFan:
Or as Blackadder observed from his trench in the WWI series of the show:
______________________________________
Clearly, Field Marshal Haig is about to make yet another gargantuan effort to move his drinks cabinet six inches closer to Berlin.
I concur that at least part of the mask motivation is a hope to keep Covid election rules in force for the mid-term elections. Understandably so, since 2022 is shaping up as a “shellacking” as Obama described the 2010 mid-terms.
However, the effort looks risky. The woke will no doubt be happy to comply, but the rest of the country is getting pretty impatient. Heaven forbid if they go for more lockdowns. That could get ugly.
I’ve read that 90% of seniors are vaxxed, which means the death rate will remain low even if cases go up. Keeping the fear ginned up, will be hard to maintain for another year plus change.
huxley,
Yeah, I’m not sure I totally buy that either. If the midterms were this November that would be different.
Of course, what we are seeing now is likely small potatoes compared to the whipping up of hysteria this winter.
Even then I’m beginning to think they know lockdowns and business closures are a bridge too far. Maybe that’s wishful thinking we’ll see.
Hello. Being a member of a local organization, I was just involved in a discussion of whether said organization should put out an advisory to its members recommending following the new masking guidelines (i.e., everybody mask up indoors regardless of vax status). In this regard, I found Neo’s interpretation of the Provincetown study very helpful in formulating my position. There was a vote; I voted against and was in the minority, but it was not a tiny minority. This I regard as my first (?) small gesture against the pandemic of fear which has been growing of late.
(I suppose one could say that the fear is a kind of opportunistic co-infection running in parallel with Everybody’s Favorite Pathogen.)
A few minor comments about the Ct stuff.
1. The article impies that the assay in question is qualitative, with a Ct cutoff
for a positive result. To get from there to a quantitative assay, you need to
calibrate the Ct values. So while, yes, there might be a positive relationship
between Ct and virus load, the magnitude of the relationship is sheer
guesswork here.
2. I have some professional experience in validating PCR assays. In those
projects, sample contamination or poor handling usually erased weak
signals, instead of amplifying them.
3. My experience with PCR methods has been with so-called high-throughput
assays. The high-throughput assays always include control wells to provide
a check on assay performance. If such controls exist, I would hope the
authors drafting the report at least took a look at them.
Huxley…re the Great War, I’ve been thinking about these lines from Siegfried Sassoon:
‘“Good-morning, good-morning!” the General said
When we met him last week on our way to the line.
Now the soldiers he smiled at are most of ’em dead,
And we’re cursing his staff for incompetent swine.
“He’s a cheery old card,” grunted Harry to Jack
As they slogged up to Arras with rifle and pack.
But he did for them both by his plan of attack.’
Similar to a lot of the leaders of American institutions today….although minus the cheeriness, in the case of those leaders.
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