I like the entire album, “The Golden Age of Wireless” quite a bit. “Science” is, justifiably the big hit but some other gems there. ‘Heading North” is one of my faves. “Hyperactive” off his next album is also good.
Interesting childhood.
BeeGees withdrawal symptoms set in ….
Beach Boys might be a topic one day. They also had vocal harmonies.
Re: Spartacus at 1150am
No Polaris boat has ever been lost! Dolby did apparently loose a relative in a sunken submarine but it seems to have been a British boat lost during WWII if the commenters over on your link can be believed.
JimNorCal:
I discussed the Beach Boys at some length here. I liked them when I was growing up; to me they are very pleasant but have nothing like the hypnotic quality of the Bee Gees in their sound. I know their reputation is higher in the pantheon of rock, but not for me.
And to be perfectly frank, they lacked the sex appeal of the Bee Gees.
neo,
I cannot stand the Beach Boys, but I can listen to the Bee Gees quite readily.
@ 12:10pm “Heading” should have been “Flying.”
I wonder if we really do have a hive brain?, i.e., an independent thinking entity with collective consciousness or collective intelligence, that is above us and that we do not individually control. Groupthink. The concept actually sounds fanciful and is difficult to root in hard science.. But, I rather believe it. It explains why an extremely social animal, viz. us, has all these periods of what are overtly collective insanity. E.g. it is insane to think that we can get by without inflation when we have M2, the broadest index of money supply, increasing 5 times faster than it has since 1943. The Chinese printed paper money in the Song Dynasty (@1000ce) and immediate inflation occurred. Did we learn anything from this and the thousand of following instances?
It seems insane for a small minority to believe that it can make us all–the much larger majority–feel incorrect and sort of guilty if we believe that sex and gender is mostly binary. Or that skin color is a bigger deal than socio-economic levels and poverty levels. The minority believes it can argue us into believing these things. The energy pushing these faddish beliefs is a sort of group think.
But we are almost all identical twins in our genetics. Grab a molecular biology textbook. Only one in a thousand nucleotides in our DNA differs on average from on another. We are much more alike in our genetics than most other animals.. And, we are incredibly social and tribal. Can you imagine a human tribe tolerating heterodox ideas suggesting that we give our food supplies away? So, in the same sense that identical twins share astonishing ideas and thoughts and desires and likes, maybe we really do have a hive brain.
This would sure explain much of our confused world these days.
Of course, there was the great Beach Boys / Beatles rivalry, which in part inspired two of the best albums for both groups — Pet Sounds and Sgt. Pepper’s.
The Beatles’ “Back in the USSR” was a reply to the Beach Boys’ “California Girls.” “Those Moscow girls really knock me out…” vs. “I wish they all could be California girls.”
But it’s hard to compete with the Beatles, even if you’re Brian Wilson. He also had some kind of mental breakdown.
Rufus T. Firefly:
The Beach Boys’ song I liked best growing up was “I Get Around.” The others were fine, too, but I had no special feeling for them. Too much surfing, too many cars (although “I Get Around” did feature a car). The Everly Brothers were much better as far as I was concerned, and Roy Orbison. Another big favorite was “Love Potion Number 9” which I had to look up just now to find out who sang it. Apparently 2 versions, but the one I remember is the earliest one – 1959, wow! I also loved this song in particular.
neo:
“I Get Around” is my favorite song from the Boys too.
dnaxy: “. it is insane to think that we can get by without inflation when we have M2, the broadest index of money supply, increasing 5 times faster than it has since 1943.” ‘;
The definition of inflation is: Too much money pursuing too few goods. In other words, it is a supply demand problem. The truth is, there is plenty of supply of most things people want or need.
What is in short supply right now? Housing is one area. Thus, the increases in housing prices. Why is housing in such short supply? One word – regulations. It can take a builder two years to wend his way through the permits and environmental mitigation demands before a spade full of dirt can be moved. With lots of money for mortgages at low interest rates, that creates more demand than supply. Inflation ensues.
Another area is higher education. The numbers of colleges isn’t growing, but the demand is there because there is plenty of student loan money to drive it. This is an example of an artificially created inflation – a combination of government policy and greed by the academic community.
An area to watch, now that Biden is president, is energy prices. Exploration and production is going down. Prices will be going up. Since energy is involved in the production and delivery of almost everything we use, it follows that inflation will rise because there is plenty of money to pay the higher prices. So, inflation is coming. Printing too much money alone doesn’t cause it. Reducing the supply of things money can buy is the other side of the equation.
I don’t fear inflation as much as I do deflation. Inflation can be stopped fairly easily (but not without a lot of short term pain) by raising interest rates and reducing the money supply. Once deflation sets in, it is hard to get people to spend and invest because of the losses that occur during the deflationary period. The Great Depression and the financial crisis of 2008 are two examples of deflations. 2008 was not as bad as the Depression because the Fed loosened money and lowered interest rates rather quickly. Also, the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB) quit making the banks mark their Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) to market. There was, essentially, no market for the MBSs, so all the banks had to carry the MBSs as near worthless. When FASB allowed them to evaluate the MBSs based on the actual interest being collected, it immediately alleviated the bank collateral problems. The stock market decline ended the day after the FASB ruling in March of 2009. After that it took years for people to regain confidence in investing again. Trump de-regulated the economy and lowered taxes. Business and the markets boomed, but COVID has thrown a monkey wrench into all economic calculus. Zero interest rates, government spending on bailouts, and worldwide government spending is setting up a situation that is going to have a lot of unintended and unforeseen consequences. Figure that out and you could become wealthy in a few years. 🙂
neo,
Awhile ago (20 years?) the Clovers’, “Love Potion Number Nine” got stuck in my head (I always have a song stuck in my head) and stayed for a few days so I started analyzing it and breaking it down. It’s a really good song. There’s a lot going on there.
I mentioned before that, Beatles-wise, I mainly like their covers and early stuff. Their version of, “You Really Got a Hold on Me” is one of my favorites.
Regarding the Beach Boys, I was born in ’63 and a few years can make a big difference, pop music-wise. When I was discovering Devo and the B-52s the Beach Boys seemed like an intentional parody. Some things are so cliche or kitsch that they can be great. The Beach Boys just seemed cliche and kitsch.
Neo, the daily open thread is a fantastic idea!
Thanks to whoever suggested it—sorry, I’m terrible with names—and thanks to Neo for doing it!
(It’s taking all my determination and willpower to NOT put an exclamation point at the end of this sentence.)
WHEW!!
(sigh)
J.J.,
There’s plenty of housing. It’s just that a lot of it is not housing that current buyers want. There are huge swaths of this country with vacant buildings, abandoned apartments, nearly empty trailer parks with vacated double wides, collapsing farmhouses.
As the saying goes; location, location, location.
I didn’t know it it was day or night. But when I …..
Who expected Nancy to create the Capitol Autonomous Zone with concertina-topped fencing patrolled by the National Guard? No one.
dnaxy,
It’s an interesting theory. I have pondered that too and it makes sense for the reasons you so capably listed. There definitely is something to mass hysteria. One year car dealers can’t give white cars away. A year later they are all anybody wants. The panics over satanic cults and child abductions are well documented cases of a news story or two gaining steam and developing into nation wide concerns. And, to use your example, in the ’80s the national debt was a fairly-wide concern and featured in a lot of news articles.
However, I don’t think it’s “hive mind.” I think it’s human nature meets narrative. Most people are more interested in a compelling narrative than pursuing ultimate truth. Whomever tells an interesting or compelling story gets people’s attention. It’s a lot more interesting believing I’m part of a persecuted minority targeted by police and that’s why I got a ticket, than admitting I may have been driving a bit recklessly. We all want to be heroes in the story of our lives. Some people are really talented at spinning narratives that convince others they are heroic; Saving the planet! Fighting fascism! Spreading wealth! Erasing hunger!
The truth is sometimes boring in comparison.
Minta, these threads are Rufus’ doing. I agree, they’re very refreshing, especially for somebody like me who lives alone and has little to do with social media.
Cashless society prophecy in the bible .. are we almost there?
With direct deposits, credit cards, now crypto etc. I don’t actually use much cash. I do keep a little with me incase the vendor credit card machine fails. But many times never have a penny on me.
When we get there will the world end!
dnaxy:
We’re not an insect hive mind, but we are very much a pack/tribe mammalian mind.
We’ve emerged from millions of years of evolution of surviving in small groups. To be cast out of the group was close to a death sentence. We know that in our bones.
Democrats are not insane or evil. They are obeying the Law.
________________________________________________
NOW this is the Law of the Jungle — as old and as true as the sky; And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back — For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
I’m no builder but it seems for this kinda of money (16.1 million) for 300 people you could build something more permanent. Complex, tiny house thing … anything but a tent city.
Got to be some kind of money scamming deal.
I’m no builder but it seems for this kinda of money (16.1 million) for 300 people you could build something more permanent.
jack:
You are quite right, of course, except they don’t want anything more permanent in San Francisco.
NIMBY. Housing values. Admitting they’re wrong about homelessness.
here you go. You can 3 of these for what they are spending on ONE tent!
The cost boils down to $190 per tent per night, which includes 24-hour security, bathrooms, maintenance, and three meals per day. This is cheaper than the per-day cost for the hotel program, but the hotel program is getting 100% federal reimbursement. (Thanks, Biden.)
Thank you, Rufus! These threads are cool!
O Bloody Hell had a comment at 10:22pm presenting some of his ideas about money, wealth, and value, that has now disappeared after I did a reload of the web site. While I agreed with some of what he said, respectfully, I also disagreed with a fair number of his statements/ assertions. It is not quite fair for me to now present my contrary ideas when his are no longer displayed for comparison. But this is also an open thread, so …
1) money is truly a marvelous invention, but it is basically an AGREEMENT between buyer and seller to use that medium as a medium of account, a store of value, and a mechanism for exchange that is easier than barter [OBH mentions the invention and barter ideas, too].
2) all economies (hunter gatherer, agricultural, industrial, and information/ services) essentially involve the application of information to the manipulation of materials so those resulting products can be used as goods directly or in support of supplying other services. That information may come from memory, oral tradition, written documents, and now digital/virtual representations. And can be applied to the manipulation of rocks, oil and other fossil fuels, sand and silicon, metal, plastic (and silicone), biological growth, viruses, etc. The beauty of recognizing this is that once a given design and production process (the information) have been developed and documented, if that process (the manipulation) is followed faithfully (via good quality control), it can continue at higher and higher rates so the cost of the later units comes down as the initial development costs (for HW or SW) are amortized. When costs come down, prices can come down, too, or profits go up dramatically (30+% margins anyone?)
3) over time the mix of labor and capital used to make goods and services has shifted to increased use of capital [which came from previous labor and capital] at the relative expense of labor. Marx focused on the labor part as the major or sole contributor to “value”, but the capital portion was adding more and more of the total value from 1800 to 2021. His “labor theory of value” is discredited because we now realize that “value” is a subjective assessment that varies by person, situation, events, circumstances, time span, etc. Some people will pay $50 for a pair of normal shoes, while others will pay $200 for a pair of Air Jordans, or whatever, even when the production cost is similar for both products.
4) OBH was not quite as clear about “wealth” vs. “value” as I would have liked. Wealth as the collection of goods and services created is still separate from the value(s) attributed to those goods and services. Both can go up and down, nominally in sync, but not necessarily in sync.
5) one of the reasons we treat manufacturing as more “valuable” than providing services is the result of what I now call “the persistence of value”. The value of waiting at tables declines rapidly once the patrons have left the restaurant, and that service must be repeated to continue a revenue and value stream. Making a TV that retains its value for two to five years means additional TV’s can be created while the previously created ones still have/ retain value (for some period of time). Same idea applies to newspapers and blog posts, except they both also retain some value for historical reference (and fish wrapping/ bird cage use). As Neo’s continued reference to her past posts show, her blog entries retain their value for quite some time, in contrast to some others me might mention. And some services are incredibly valuable over a very long time: legal (wills, trusts), insurance, mortgages, education, memorable vacations and special events, etc. Successful lawyers and insurance brokers still make a lot more money than factory workers.
6) OBH also raises an interesting argument that earlier economies were hierarchical, and thus constrained the flow of information up and down a chain of command, while IT and service economies are more networked and thus information is more widely distributed and available for optimum use and users. I would suggest (along with Hayek) that the price signals of the marketplace are largely networked already, compared to a communistic command economy. But the value of the internet (compared to clay tablets, scrolls, books, and thumb drives) is the even wider networking of knowledge and information, thus enabling even greater economic opportunities for invention, innovation, and growth (increase in total net wealth and value).
7) The increased use of networked knowledge may lead (has led) to a more level business/ corporate organizational structure [as OBH suggests], but the role of executives, managers, and administrators in that organization are not going away. Someone has to address business strategy and allocation of limited capital and resources to what the business entity will do in total. The pandemic emphasized our interconnectedness and interdependency in our economy, with almost everyone having an “essential” role to some greater or lesser level. But over the years I learned that engineers can’t run a company separate from procurement, finance, security, facilities, HR (bbuuurrrr), sales and distribution and support, et al. And IT, payroll, management, legal, admin support, et al.
8) coming back to money: some people want to treat money as the fuel that drives an economy, but I prefer to think of money as the lubricant and innovation and new ideas as the real fuel for economic growth. If you have an idea for a better microchip or for putting a new pizza parlor at 5th and Main, you can eventually find someone to give/loan you the money once they also agree the idea has merit.
9) OBH’s final question is: “So — if the amount of WEALTH being created is hard to estimate — how the hell do you know how much money to produce????” My answer is to add or remove as much money from the economy as necessary to maintain a stable value for that money (i.e., the dollar) as the quantity of goods and services (and their subjective measures of value) go up or down. Easier said than done, but that should still be our ideal or goal. Our current monetary and fiscal policies are nowhere near helping us achieve this.
Thank you for your time and attention if you got this far, and to OBH for supplying the trigger for this long comment. Have a good evening.
Reading about the bread trucks and the comments in that thread and reading this thread all I can think about is how market capitalism can create SO MUCH GOODS AND SERVICES that even lower socio-economic people can enjoy items and experiences only the wealthy and super wealthy could enjoy before WWI.
And the United States lead the way. God I love this country.
@R2L:
I like your lubricant/fuel analogy for money.
Clearly at current level of supply it’s more fuel than lubricant. I suppose not quite reached 100 Octane Greshamolene yet, but just a matter of time.
But is it not also the case that if there was a serious effort to wind things back to where money was merely the lubricant of commerce it would blow up the financial system = Life As We Know It… and therefore the only game in town is to continue to crank things up past 10 and try to grab as many geographically diversified assets as one can assuming one has access to this cheap credit (and not everyone does) before it all blows up the other way?
I’m not a Beach Boys fanatic but I like them and have enormous respect for their talent, or at least the songwriting talent of Brian Wilson. The Beatles were inspired at least in part to record Sgt. Peppers’ as a response to the Beach Boys’ innovative “Pet Sounds” album.
One of my all-time favorite songs is Fun, Fun, Fun. Not only because it *is* fun, fun, fun but it is a brilliant example of songwriting that paints a vivid picture in your mind.
Well she got her daddy’s car and she cruised through the hamburger stand now
Seems she forgot all about the library like she told her old man now
And with the radio blastin’ goes cruisin’ just as fast as she can now
And she’ll have fun fun fun ’til her daddy takes the T-bird away
There’s a whole world in there, far beyond just what the lyrics say.
Oops, just noticed that you also mentioned the Pet Sounds/Sgt. Pepper connection huxley. At any rate it is something to think about for those who dismiss the Beach Boys as lightweights.
My wife I are in Colombia getting a bunch of long-delayed medical work done. We discovered that Colombians are more fanatic about masking and social distancing than anything we have seen in the States. What’s more, they don’t seem to exhibit any resistance to it. In a week here, we have encountered only one person willing to speak out about how insane it is.
We are now looking forward to getting back home to where there remains a sizable percentage of the population that are not sheep, thinking, speaking, and acting just as they are told to.
FOAF:
I overlooked ‘Fun, Fun, Fun’. Glad you mentioned it. For other lighthearted giggles, there’s always ‘Little Honda’.
‘Little Deuce Coupe’ remains notable for being pretty accurate on the mechanical bits (he says, never having built a flathead V8). Or, there is the definitive car song:
Re ‘I Get Around’, I’ve never understood this couplet:
‘None of the guys go steady ’cause it wouldn’t be right
To leave their best girl home on a Saturday night’
Yep, I’ve been locked up so long I’m overthinking Beach Boys tunes…
Sonny Wayz:
I have pondered (over-thunk) the mysteries of “I Get Around.”
As I read those lyrics, the guys don’t go steady, because they are so cool and in demand, they couldn’t possibly limit themselves to one girl and would inevitably would leave their steady home alone on Saturday night.
But! On top of being super-cool, they are also honest and chivalrous enough not to let that happen. So they don’t go steady.
Perfect teen-boy wish fulfillment.
Sonny Wayz:
It’s an excuse. None of them can get a steady girlfriend, but they won’t admit it 🙂 .
“It’s an excuse. None of them can get a steady girlfriend, but they won’t admit it ”
With a car that’s never been beat? C’mon, man! 🙂
BTW, these open threads are great. To echo Mr. Sells upthread, I don’t do social media, and you’ve accumulated an entertaining group of followers. Everybody take a bow. You two in the back as well.
Then there’s Jan & Dean’s “Surf City.” Really fun, Monkees-ish video.
______________________________________________
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, ’cause it’s two to one
You know we’re goin’ to Surf City, gonna have some fun
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, ’cause it’s two to one
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, gonna have some fun, now Two girls for every boy
When I was in high school, it seemed half the guys looked chiseled like that. (I was a runner and a surfer, so I didn’t look bad either, but no six-pack.) These day with high school boys, not so much.
“An r-g [r=interest rates, g=gdp growth] equal to 1% means that, at 100% debt/GDP, the US can run 1% deficit to GDP forever. That’s nice. But the US has been running 5% deficit to GDP in good times, 10% in bad times, and 20% in this crisis. (Figure 6 is clearer about the total increase in debt to the 2008 and 2020 recessions.) The CBO forecast starts close to 5% after recovery, but then grows unboundedly as unfunded entitlements kick in. And this forecast is before one adds big new spending programs — green energy subsidies, medicare for all, universal basic income, infrastructure, and so on. And this forecast does not count the 20% that each decades’ once-in-a-century crisis seems to engender. And this forecast presumes GDP continues to grow at an anemic but positive pace of 1.6% per year. Lower makes it all worse. ”
Interesting perspective on low interest rates and deficits. Based on current spending CBO projects we’re headed to 200% debt/gdp by 2050. Something’s gotta give.
Some are old enough to remember when a few in congress were trying to prepare for the ballooning entitlement spending. Well it’s upon us.
I agree in part with Huxley’s interpretation of “I Get Around”– Saturday night was for cruising with the guys. I would add– the guys certainly were too cool, at least in their own minds!
There was the attempt to “pick up chicks”– mostly in vain– but there was certainly the flirting, the guys in one car and the girls in another as the procession of cars slowing made its way up and down the boulevard.
I was living in N. Hollywood in the late 60’s, and spent a few Saturday nights cruising Van Nuys, ala American Graffiti– when you could grab a ride in a buddy’s car. I was a poor college student, and my car wasn’t cruise material. At least that’s the way I remember it.
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Today’s earworm:
Thomas Dolby
She Blinded Me With Science
https://youtu.be/V83JR2IoI8k
😉
Was that Eric Swallwell and Fang Fang?
I actually like Dolby’s “One of our Submarines” better. He has an uncle actually go down in a Polaris sub.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OsZTJ5vfUs&ab_channel=MichaelHelme
I like the entire album, “The Golden Age of Wireless” quite a bit. “Science” is, justifiably the big hit but some other gems there. ‘Heading North” is one of my faves. “Hyperactive” off his next album is also good.
Interesting childhood.
BeeGees withdrawal symptoms set in ….
Beach Boys might be a topic one day. They also had vocal harmonies.
Re: Spartacus at 1150am
No Polaris boat has ever been lost! Dolby did apparently loose a relative in a sunken submarine but it seems to have been a British boat lost during WWII if the commenters over on your link can be believed.
JimNorCal:
I discussed the Beach Boys at some length here. I liked them when I was growing up; to me they are very pleasant but have nothing like the hypnotic quality of the Bee Gees in their sound. I know their reputation is higher in the pantheon of rock, but not for me.
And to be perfectly frank, they lacked the sex appeal of the Bee Gees.
neo,
I cannot stand the Beach Boys, but I can listen to the Bee Gees quite readily.
@ 12:10pm “Heading” should have been “Flying.”
I wonder if we really do have a hive brain?, i.e., an independent thinking entity with collective consciousness or collective intelligence, that is above us and that we do not individually control. Groupthink. The concept actually sounds fanciful and is difficult to root in hard science.. But, I rather believe it. It explains why an extremely social animal, viz. us, has all these periods of what are overtly collective insanity. E.g. it is insane to think that we can get by without inflation when we have M2, the broadest index of money supply, increasing 5 times faster than it has since 1943. The Chinese printed paper money in the Song Dynasty (@1000ce) and immediate inflation occurred. Did we learn anything from this and the thousand of following instances?
It seems insane for a small minority to believe that it can make us all–the much larger majority–feel incorrect and sort of guilty if we believe that sex and gender is mostly binary. Or that skin color is a bigger deal than socio-economic levels and poverty levels. The minority believes it can argue us into believing these things. The energy pushing these faddish beliefs is a sort of group think.
But we are almost all identical twins in our genetics. Grab a molecular biology textbook. Only one in a thousand nucleotides in our DNA differs on average from on another. We are much more alike in our genetics than most other animals.. And, we are incredibly social and tribal. Can you imagine a human tribe tolerating heterodox ideas suggesting that we give our food supplies away? So, in the same sense that identical twins share astonishing ideas and thoughts and desires and likes, maybe we really do have a hive brain.
This would sure explain much of our confused world these days.
Of course, there was the great Beach Boys / Beatles rivalry, which in part inspired two of the best albums for both groups — Pet Sounds and Sgt. Pepper’s.
The Beatles’ “Back in the USSR” was a reply to the Beach Boys’ “California Girls.” “Those Moscow girls really knock me out…” vs. “I wish they all could be California girls.”
But it’s hard to compete with the Beatles, even if you’re Brian Wilson. He also had some kind of mental breakdown.
Rufus T. Firefly:
The Beach Boys’ song I liked best growing up was “I Get Around.” The others were fine, too, but I had no special feeling for them. Too much surfing, too many cars (although “I Get Around” did feature a car). The Everly Brothers were much better as far as I was concerned, and Roy Orbison. Another big favorite was “Love Potion Number 9” which I had to look up just now to find out who sang it. Apparently 2 versions, but the one I remember is the earliest one – 1959, wow! I also loved this song in particular.
neo:
“I Get Around” is my favorite song from the Boys too.
dnaxy: “. it is insane to think that we can get by without inflation when we have M2, the broadest index of money supply, increasing 5 times faster than it has since 1943.” ‘;
The definition of inflation is: Too much money pursuing too few goods. In other words, it is a supply demand problem. The truth is, there is plenty of supply of most things people want or need.
What is in short supply right now? Housing is one area. Thus, the increases in housing prices. Why is housing in such short supply? One word – regulations. It can take a builder two years to wend his way through the permits and environmental mitigation demands before a spade full of dirt can be moved. With lots of money for mortgages at low interest rates, that creates more demand than supply. Inflation ensues.
Another area is higher education. The numbers of colleges isn’t growing, but the demand is there because there is plenty of student loan money to drive it. This is an example of an artificially created inflation – a combination of government policy and greed by the academic community.
An area to watch, now that Biden is president, is energy prices. Exploration and production is going down. Prices will be going up. Since energy is involved in the production and delivery of almost everything we use, it follows that inflation will rise because there is plenty of money to pay the higher prices. So, inflation is coming. Printing too much money alone doesn’t cause it. Reducing the supply of things money can buy is the other side of the equation.
I don’t fear inflation as much as I do deflation. Inflation can be stopped fairly easily (but not without a lot of short term pain) by raising interest rates and reducing the money supply. Once deflation sets in, it is hard to get people to spend and invest because of the losses that occur during the deflationary period. The Great Depression and the financial crisis of 2008 are two examples of deflations. 2008 was not as bad as the Depression because the Fed loosened money and lowered interest rates rather quickly. Also, the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB) quit making the banks mark their Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) to market. There was, essentially, no market for the MBSs, so all the banks had to carry the MBSs as near worthless. When FASB allowed them to evaluate the MBSs based on the actual interest being collected, it immediately alleviated the bank collateral problems. The stock market decline ended the day after the FASB ruling in March of 2009. After that it took years for people to regain confidence in investing again. Trump de-regulated the economy and lowered taxes. Business and the markets boomed, but COVID has thrown a monkey wrench into all economic calculus. Zero interest rates, government spending on bailouts, and worldwide government spending is setting up a situation that is going to have a lot of unintended and unforeseen consequences. Figure that out and you could become wealthy in a few years. 🙂
neo,
Awhile ago (20 years?) the Clovers’, “Love Potion Number Nine” got stuck in my head (I always have a song stuck in my head) and stayed for a few days so I started analyzing it and breaking it down. It’s a really good song. There’s a lot going on there.
I mentioned before that, Beatles-wise, I mainly like their covers and early stuff. Their version of, “You Really Got a Hold on Me” is one of my favorites.
Regarding the Beach Boys, I was born in ’63 and a few years can make a big difference, pop music-wise. When I was discovering Devo and the B-52s the Beach Boys seemed like an intentional parody. Some things are so cliche or kitsch that they can be great. The Beach Boys just seemed cliche and kitsch.
Neo, the daily open thread is a fantastic idea!
Thanks to whoever suggested it—sorry, I’m terrible with names—and thanks to Neo for doing it!
(It’s taking all my determination and willpower to NOT put an exclamation point at the end of this sentence.)
WHEW!!
(sigh)
J.J.,
There’s plenty of housing. It’s just that a lot of it is not housing that current buyers want. There are huge swaths of this country with vacant buildings, abandoned apartments, nearly empty trailer parks with vacated double wides, collapsing farmhouses.
As the saying goes; location, location, location.
I didn’t know it it was day or night. But when I …..
Who expected Nancy to create the Capitol Autonomous Zone with concertina-topped fencing patrolled by the National Guard? No one.
dnaxy,
It’s an interesting theory. I have pondered that too and it makes sense for the reasons you so capably listed. There definitely is something to mass hysteria. One year car dealers can’t give white cars away. A year later they are all anybody wants. The panics over satanic cults and child abductions are well documented cases of a news story or two gaining steam and developing into nation wide concerns. And, to use your example, in the ’80s the national debt was a fairly-wide concern and featured in a lot of news articles.
However, I don’t think it’s “hive mind.” I think it’s human nature meets narrative. Most people are more interested in a compelling narrative than pursuing ultimate truth. Whomever tells an interesting or compelling story gets people’s attention. It’s a lot more interesting believing I’m part of a persecuted minority targeted by police and that’s why I got a ticket, than admitting I may have been driving a bit recklessly. We all want to be heroes in the story of our lives. Some people are really talented at spinning narratives that convince others they are heroic; Saving the planet! Fighting fascism! Spreading wealth! Erasing hunger!
The truth is sometimes boring in comparison.
Minta, these threads are Rufus’ doing. I agree, they’re very refreshing, especially for somebody like me who lives alone and has little to do with social media.
Cashless society prophecy in the bible .. are we almost there?
With direct deposits, credit cards, now crypto etc. I don’t actually use much cash. I do keep a little with me incase the vendor credit card machine fails. But many times never have a penny on me.
When we get there will the world end!
dnaxy:
We’re not an insect hive mind, but we are very much a pack/tribe mammalian mind.
We’ve emerged from millions of years of evolution of surviving in small groups. To be cast out of the group was close to a death sentence. We know that in our bones.
Democrats are not insane or evil. They are obeying the Law.
________________________________________________
NOW this is the Law of the Jungle — as old and as true as the sky;
And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die.
As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back —
For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.
–Rudyard Kipling, “The Law of the Jungle”
http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_lawofjungle.htm
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2021/03/05/san-francisco-pays-16-1-million-to-shelter-300-homeless-in-tents-n1430271
I’m no builder but it seems for this kinda of money (16.1 million) for 300 people you could build something more permanent. Complex, tiny house thing … anything but a tent city.
Got to be some kind of money scamming deal.
I’m no builder but it seems for this kinda of money (16.1 million) for 300 people you could build something more permanent.
jack:
You are quite right, of course, except they don’t want anything more permanent in San Francisco.
NIMBY. Housing values. Admitting they’re wrong about homelessness.
here you go. You can 3 of these for what they are spending on ONE tent!
https://www.fifthroom.com/ProductCustomize.aspx?ProductID=19956&Path=424
And we are ALL paying for this.
Thank you, Rufus! These threads are cool!
O Bloody Hell had a comment at 10:22pm presenting some of his ideas about money, wealth, and value, that has now disappeared after I did a reload of the web site. While I agreed with some of what he said, respectfully, I also disagreed with a fair number of his statements/ assertions. It is not quite fair for me to now present my contrary ideas when his are no longer displayed for comparison. But this is also an open thread, so …
1) money is truly a marvelous invention, but it is basically an AGREEMENT between buyer and seller to use that medium as a medium of account, a store of value, and a mechanism for exchange that is easier than barter [OBH mentions the invention and barter ideas, too].
2) all economies (hunter gatherer, agricultural, industrial, and information/ services) essentially involve the application of information to the manipulation of materials so those resulting products can be used as goods directly or in support of supplying other services. That information may come from memory, oral tradition, written documents, and now digital/virtual representations. And can be applied to the manipulation of rocks, oil and other fossil fuels, sand and silicon, metal, plastic (and silicone), biological growth, viruses, etc. The beauty of recognizing this is that once a given design and production process (the information) have been developed and documented, if that process (the manipulation) is followed faithfully (via good quality control), it can continue at higher and higher rates so the cost of the later units comes down as the initial development costs (for HW or SW) are amortized. When costs come down, prices can come down, too, or profits go up dramatically (30+% margins anyone?)
3) over time the mix of labor and capital used to make goods and services has shifted to increased use of capital [which came from previous labor and capital] at the relative expense of labor. Marx focused on the labor part as the major or sole contributor to “value”, but the capital portion was adding more and more of the total value from 1800 to 2021. His “labor theory of value” is discredited because we now realize that “value” is a subjective assessment that varies by person, situation, events, circumstances, time span, etc. Some people will pay $50 for a pair of normal shoes, while others will pay $200 for a pair of Air Jordans, or whatever, even when the production cost is similar for both products.
4) OBH was not quite as clear about “wealth” vs. “value” as I would have liked. Wealth as the collection of goods and services created is still separate from the value(s) attributed to those goods and services. Both can go up and down, nominally in sync, but not necessarily in sync.
5) one of the reasons we treat manufacturing as more “valuable” than providing services is the result of what I now call “the persistence of value”. The value of waiting at tables declines rapidly once the patrons have left the restaurant, and that service must be repeated to continue a revenue and value stream. Making a TV that retains its value for two to five years means additional TV’s can be created while the previously created ones still have/ retain value (for some period of time). Same idea applies to newspapers and blog posts, except they both also retain some value for historical reference (and fish wrapping/ bird cage use). As Neo’s continued reference to her past posts show, her blog entries retain their value for quite some time, in contrast to some others me might mention. And some services are incredibly valuable over a very long time: legal (wills, trusts), insurance, mortgages, education, memorable vacations and special events, etc. Successful lawyers and insurance brokers still make a lot more money than factory workers.
6) OBH also raises an interesting argument that earlier economies were hierarchical, and thus constrained the flow of information up and down a chain of command, while IT and service economies are more networked and thus information is more widely distributed and available for optimum use and users. I would suggest (along with Hayek) that the price signals of the marketplace are largely networked already, compared to a communistic command economy. But the value of the internet (compared to clay tablets, scrolls, books, and thumb drives) is the even wider networking of knowledge and information, thus enabling even greater economic opportunities for invention, innovation, and growth (increase in total net wealth and value).
7) The increased use of networked knowledge may lead (has led) to a more level business/ corporate organizational structure [as OBH suggests], but the role of executives, managers, and administrators in that organization are not going away. Someone has to address business strategy and allocation of limited capital and resources to what the business entity will do in total. The pandemic emphasized our interconnectedness and interdependency in our economy, with almost everyone having an “essential” role to some greater or lesser level. But over the years I learned that engineers can’t run a company separate from procurement, finance, security, facilities, HR (bbuuurrrr), sales and distribution and support, et al. And IT, payroll, management, legal, admin support, et al.
8) coming back to money: some people want to treat money as the fuel that drives an economy, but I prefer to think of money as the lubricant and innovation and new ideas as the real fuel for economic growth. If you have an idea for a better microchip or for putting a new pizza parlor at 5th and Main, you can eventually find someone to give/loan you the money once they also agree the idea has merit.
9) OBH’s final question is: “So — if the amount of WEALTH being created is hard to estimate — how the hell do you know how much money to produce????” My answer is to add or remove as much money from the economy as necessary to maintain a stable value for that money (i.e., the dollar) as the quantity of goods and services (and their subjective measures of value) go up or down. Easier said than done, but that should still be our ideal or goal. Our current monetary and fiscal policies are nowhere near helping us achieve this.
Thank you for your time and attention if you got this far, and to OBH for supplying the trigger for this long comment. Have a good evening.
Reading about the bread trucks and the comments in that thread and reading this thread all I can think about is how market capitalism can create SO MUCH GOODS AND SERVICES that even lower socio-economic people can enjoy items and experiences only the wealthy and super wealthy could enjoy before WWI.
And the United States lead the way. God I love this country.
@R2L:
I like your lubricant/fuel analogy for money.
Clearly at current level of supply it’s more fuel than lubricant. I suppose not quite reached 100 Octane Greshamolene yet, but just a matter of time.
But is it not also the case that if there was a serious effort to wind things back to where money was merely the lubricant of commerce it would blow up the financial system = Life As We Know It… and therefore the only game in town is to continue to crank things up past 10 and try to grab as many geographically diversified assets as one can assuming one has access to this cheap credit (and not everyone does) before it all blows up the other way?
I’m not a Beach Boys fanatic but I like them and have enormous respect for their talent, or at least the songwriting talent of Brian Wilson. The Beatles were inspired at least in part to record Sgt. Peppers’ as a response to the Beach Boys’ innovative “Pet Sounds” album.
One of my all-time favorite songs is Fun, Fun, Fun. Not only because it *is* fun, fun, fun but it is a brilliant example of songwriting that paints a vivid picture in your mind.
Well she got her daddy’s car and she cruised through the hamburger stand now
Seems she forgot all about the library like she told her old man now
And with the radio blastin’ goes cruisin’ just as fast as she can now
And she’ll have fun fun fun ’til her daddy takes the T-bird away
There’s a whole world in there, far beyond just what the lyrics say.
Oops, just noticed that you also mentioned the Pet Sounds/Sgt. Pepper connection huxley. At any rate it is something to think about for those who dismiss the Beach Boys as lightweights.
My wife I are in Colombia getting a bunch of long-delayed medical work done. We discovered that Colombians are more fanatic about masking and social distancing than anything we have seen in the States. What’s more, they don’t seem to exhibit any resistance to it. In a week here, we have encountered only one person willing to speak out about how insane it is.
We are now looking forward to getting back home to where there remains a sizable percentage of the population that are not sheep, thinking, speaking, and acting just as they are told to.
FOAF:
I overlooked ‘Fun, Fun, Fun’. Glad you mentioned it. For other lighthearted giggles, there’s always ‘Little Honda’.
‘Little Deuce Coupe’ remains notable for being pretty accurate on the mechanical bits (he says, never having built a flathead V8). Or, there is the definitive car song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayTJtVzHOLs
Re ‘I Get Around’, I’ve never understood this couplet:
‘None of the guys go steady ’cause it wouldn’t be right
To leave their best girl home on a Saturday night’
Yep, I’ve been locked up so long I’m overthinking Beach Boys tunes…
Sonny Wayz:
I have pondered (over-thunk) the mysteries of “I Get Around.”
As I read those lyrics, the guys don’t go steady, because they are so cool and in demand, they couldn’t possibly limit themselves to one girl and would inevitably would leave their steady home alone on Saturday night.
But! On top of being super-cool, they are also honest and chivalrous enough not to let that happen. So they don’t go steady.
Perfect teen-boy wish fulfillment.
Sonny Wayz:
It’s an excuse. None of them can get a steady girlfriend, but they won’t admit it 🙂 .
“It’s an excuse. None of them can get a steady girlfriend, but they won’t admit it ”
With a car that’s never been beat? C’mon, man! 🙂
BTW, these open threads are great. To echo Mr. Sells upthread, I don’t do social media, and you’ve accumulated an entertaining group of followers. Everybody take a bow. You two in the back as well.
Then there’s Jan & Dean’s “Surf City.” Really fun, Monkees-ish video.
______________________________________________
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, ’cause it’s two to one
You know we’re goin’ to Surf City, gonna have some fun
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, ’cause it’s two to one
Ya, we’re goin’ to Surf City, gonna have some fun, now
Two girls for every boy
–Jan & Dean – Surf City (1963) – Original clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5V3wcREqcI
______________________________________________
When I was in high school, it seemed half the guys looked chiseled like that. (I was a runner and a surfer, so I didn’t look bad either, but no six-pack.) These day with high school boys, not so much.
“An r-g [r=interest rates, g=gdp growth] equal to 1% means that, at 100% debt/GDP, the US can run 1% deficit to GDP forever. That’s nice. But the US has been running 5% deficit to GDP in good times, 10% in bad times, and 20% in this crisis. (Figure 6 is clearer about the total increase in debt to the 2008 and 2020 recessions.) The CBO forecast starts close to 5% after recovery, but then grows unboundedly as unfunded entitlements kick in. And this forecast is before one adds big new spending programs — green energy subsidies, medicare for all, universal basic income, infrastructure, and so on. And this forecast does not count the 20% that each decades’ once-in-a-century crisis seems to engender. And this forecast presumes GDP continues to grow at an anemic but positive pace of 1.6% per year. Lower makes it all worse. ”
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/01/low-interest-rates-and-government-debt.html
Interesting perspective on low interest rates and deficits. Based on current spending CBO projects we’re headed to 200% debt/gdp by 2050. Something’s gotta give.
Some are old enough to remember when a few in congress were trying to prepare for the ballooning entitlement spending. Well it’s upon us.
I agree in part with Huxley’s interpretation of “I Get Around”– Saturday night was for cruising with the guys. I would add– the guys certainly were too cool, at least in their own minds!
There was the attempt to “pick up chicks”– mostly in vain– but there was certainly the flirting, the guys in one car and the girls in another as the procession of cars slowing made its way up and down the boulevard.
I was living in N. Hollywood in the late 60’s, and spent a few Saturday nights cruising Van Nuys, ala American Graffiti– when you could grab a ride in a buddy’s car. I was a poor college student, and my car wasn’t cruise material. At least that’s the way I remember it.