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I sure hope… — 21 Comments

  1. I find myself highly skeptical of these numbers, although it seems likely that Trump’s share of the black vote may well be slightly higher than it was four years ago (perhaps rising from 8% to 10%), but two things seem clear, the first being that black men are more likely to consider Trump the better choice than are black women, the second being that Hispanic voters will certainly turn out for Trump in greater numbers for a variety of reasons, among them the lack of enthusiasm among Hispanics for BLM rhetoric and BLM-inspired chaos and violence.

  2. I’m only slightly skeptical.
    But I hasten to note that “approve” is NOT the same as “vote for”.
    The “vote for” number will be smaller, perhaps much smaller. Here’s a sampling of articles. I was shocked at some of them, they are not getting much play in the MSM. And, to be fair, Repub hopes in the past have often been dashed.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/24/shock-poll-donald-trump-down-one-point-among-black-voters-in-battleground-michigan

    Thousands of blacks march in DC, chant “We Want Tump”.
    https://twitter.com/RealMarkKennedy/status/1318319214063685635

    Washington Post scared the majority of black men will go for Trump.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/whats-happening-out-there-with-black-men-trump/

    Charlamagne Tha God Explains Why More Black Men Are Supporting Trump
    https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/charlamagne-tha-god-explains-why-more-black-men-are-supporting-donald-trump-news.120094.html

    President Trump’s approval with black voters had soared to 46 percent (Rasmussen Reports)
    (same as neo’s above)
    https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/10/24/president-trumps-approval-with-black-voters-rockets-to-46-after-debate-victory-988309

    “Something’s happen’ here …”

  3. One would think that at this stage of the campaign headline writers would have learned that:
    “Blacks” really should be “not-Blacks”
    “Black men” should be “not-Black men”
    “Black voters” should be “not-Black voters”

    Didn’t they get the message?

  4. I remember a conversation I had with one of the few Black Libertarians, Dick Boddie (Richard “body”) a few decades ago.

    He thought then that at some point in the near future there would be a huge move of Blacks away from the Dems. Since the Dems were such failures. And he thought they would go for the Libbers. [wrong. 🙁 ]
    Half of his point was the group think of many Blacks – when they changed, it would be a massive change.

    I think Kanye West’s early support of Trump has allowed Blacks to think of Trump, and think of voting Republican, with much less embarrassment. Plus quite a few Black Rep candidates, almost all of whom are running against the terrible records of the usually Black Dem incumbents.

    I was thinking of, hoping for, Blacks NOT voting Dem, like for West this cycle. Some strange stuff with the American Independent Party putting his name as VP in CA (anywhere else?). But he’s off my radar now. Looked him up choosing unknown Biblical Life Coach Michelle Tidball for VP. She says she doesn’t watch news.

    It’s long been funny sad that Blacks are angry enough to riot, but not angry enough to stop voting for Dems whose policies fail to help. In fact, for most Blacks, it makes life worse. Tho for some, the chosen few recipients, Black or otherwise, the Dem corruption works very well.

    Less than 12% Black vote would surprise me. More than 40% would surprise me; even 40% of Black men, tho this is much more likely than of Black women.

  5. Blacks, Hispanics and Whites will carry Trump to victory.

    The democrat party cannot win without unanimity among minority voters.

  6. I would love to believe that the 46% number is even close to the truth but it seems to me if it were then Trump’s overall approval in the same poll would be higher than 51%. I think this is more likely an outlier due to noise in a small sample size. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that suggests Trump is getting more support from black men than the typical Republican candidate but it doesn’t seem to be showing up in most polls. If Trump gets anything over 20% of the black vote, I think he would win almost all of the swing states pretty easily. I would like to believe this can happen but I’m skeptical.

    I know that the polls are not perfect but the final polls were pretty close to the actual result in 2016. I think there is some truth to the shy Trump voter phenomenon but I think it would only be worth two or three points. I really thought that after voters looked at Biden more closely more of them would come to the conclusion that he is obviously unfit for office and that the polls would reflect this by now. I can only hope that there is a huge disconnect between the likely voter models and the actual turnout.

  7. Makes no sense that 10% of people who didn’t approve the job he had been doing suddenly approve the next day,

  8. I could take or leave black, white, diverse votes. Leave them, mostly. American votes are welcome.

  9. That’s a really radical trend; if this wasn’t Rasmussen…

    There’s got to be more of a backstory and context, and more data … but this is the same stripped-down snippet we’re all seeing elsewhere.

    It’s only Approval, and ‘worse’ it could really be about disapproval – of Biden and Harris. But we’d take it!

    It could be driven by stuff appearing in Black media. And it might not be just their fine content; Social Media may be refusing the GOP ad-dollar, but BET and Blacksphere et al could be banking it for a very merry Xmas.

    I’ve previously seen discussions that a shift from 8% to 12% appeared solid. Then it was up to (maybe) 16%. That has been longer-term. It’s legendary, and we forget about knowing it, every cycle, but way-most people ignore what we’ve been doting on every single day for a year, until a couple weeks before the election. So … not impossible.

    I doubt young male Hispanics and Blacks would be doing any Lone Ranger act here. If they get into Trump, they’ll put down the law: “And make all your girl friends too”! “Mom! Dad! How long ya gonna suck that hind teat”!

    Yes, it’s been anticipated long-time, and thought to have arrived repeatedly. But otoh, it’s a very natural fit that will happen at some point, and for it to be a stunner would be equally natural.

    Stay calm and don’t let it go to your head, but do review the self-treatment for psychological shock.

  10. I think there are 2 things that explain this:
    1. Numerous black rappers have publicly endorsed Trump in the last week;
    2. Trump had a great debate performance and Biden’s debate performance made him look old, frail and weak.

  11. Hinderacker at PowerLine noted that yesterday, on Google, the top search was “How can I change my vote?”

    I can only draw one conclusion from that.

  12. “It’s long been funny sad that Blacks are angry enough to riot, but not angry enough to stop voting for Dems whose policies fail to help.” – Tom

    Because they can’t find anything to loot in the ballot booth?

    Seriously, there is no reason for Black people to be any more politically savvy than a bunch of White and Hispanic and Asian and Jewish people who haven’t been helped by the Democrat policies they keep voting for.

    The same PLB post Capn Rusty noted also has this, which is not encouraging:
    as JimNorCal said — “approve” is NOT the same as “vote for”

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/loose-ends-117.php

    Even among black voters who say they approve of Trump’s job performance, more than half intend to vote for Biden, reflecting the deep loyalty of black voters for the Democratic Party. Once again the question is enthusiasm and turnout. There is not much enthusiasm for Biden among black voters; will dislike of Trump be a sufficient motivator for marginal black voters? Another imponderable.

    However, if the Black influencers have cracked that loyalty, then the poll numbers could well be accurate. They could also be an attempt to rev up the Democrats to increase voter turnout. I do not trust polling organizations anymore than I trust CNN.

    There won’t be any way to know if the gain is real until the election.

  13. There are some very vocal black conservative activists out there, such as Candice Owens, who have been gaining traction in addition to the recent high-profile endorsemens. This could be one of those “Hundredth Monkey Effect” moments. If you read up on the “effect” below, it explains how such a sharp change in the polling data is possible.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

    P.S.: I just realized prior to posting that in almost any other forum, this would get me burned as being racist. I think I’m ok here though… I hope…

  14. The problem is that we don’t know anything.
    We’d like to think we do, but alas we don’t.

    We—both sides—would like to believe that if there is any justice in the world, things ought to turn out a certain way; but we cannot know how what will happen until the comfortably-built-individual-with-two-x-chromosomes sings.

    And even then…this unfortunate individual will likely have to sing for up to a week and a half (or even longer), the way the election is “set up” so that “every” “ballot” is “counted”.

    Having said that, things are looking up in some spheres at least, and it’s encouraging to discover that a major Democratic-run city finally has a law-and-order person firmly at the helm:
    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/10/24/chicago-will-start-ticketing-motorists-for-going-6-mph-over-speed-limit-n1084278

  15. Polling’s very unreliable nowadays and Rasmussen’s usually an outlier.

    IMO, voting patterns in the black population ca. 1955 may have been sensitive to external circumstances. Not so today, where we have every reason to believe that voting is an identity affirmation. (That’s gotten to be true in other sectors of the population). See, for example, Rudolph Giuliani’s fantastic 1st term in New York. He persuaded about 15% of New York’s black electorate to switch sides. I wouldn’t wager that anyone else could improve on that given the black political culture of our time.

    I think blacks (and the rest of us) would benefit if they looked at public life and history with the same set of lenses they used in navigating mundane life. I don’t imagine that sort of cultural shift will come to pass in my lifetime. The one small hint that the political culture among blacks is developing some divergent strands of opinion would be Bernie Sanders’ performance in 2016 among northern blacks under 40.

    Prior to 1964, the distribution of party preference among black voters was about what you’d expect of urban ethnics (it was about 70-30). The shift to monolithic support for the Democratic Party was quite abrupt. A change in the black population’s political ecosystem (in a more salutary direction) may prove to be similarly abrupt.

  16. VDH said that about half of the Hispanics in his central CA town supported Trump. I think Trump has to make big gains with the African American and Hispanic working classes to win and I think he may be doing just that. But as Barry Meislin said we know nothing – other than, perhaps, that the sun will come up the day after.

  17. I believe the 46% figure because I have seen this trending up pre-virus, rapper influencers mentioned above plus IceCube, and my own changer experience (from LP to GOP in 2004) did not eventuate until 2008, tells me to low ball expectations because old habits and loyalties take two cycles to die.

    Back in February, before the Virus Crisis, found likely black voters approving of Trump’s Joe performance at 43%. The three years of Trump saw black unemployment at record 55 year lows, and poverty rates fell from 22% to 18% (about 3% with rounding). That’s around a 15% drop in the black community as a block. This cannot be ignored.

    Trump’s plea in 2016 “what have you got to lose?” after Dem failure for decades rings true and truer with performance test.

    But will single digit GOP voting black more than double? From 8% to 15% to maybe 20% (black men the higher number)? No.

    Doubling of single digit block voting GOP is my best guesstimate. But forever Dem the civil rights attorney on FoxNews, Leo Terrel (sp?), (who is black) now campaigns for Trump as “Leo 2.0” and has appeared with libertarian radio talk show icon in SoCal, Larry Elder, also for Trump. As are older civil rights hero’s Clarence Henderson and the late (as of July) Charles Evers.

    In June 2000, the Libertarian Party held its national convention in Denver. And I attended the final day. It was fun to party afterwords with optimistic, energised New Hampshire-ite’s and Wayne Allyn Root’s lively reception.

    But by the winter of 2004, much had changed. The GWOT and subsequent decline of the LP with the rising power of PC and then Obama in 2008.

    In Denver that winter, I recall finding myself articulating George W. Bush’s change agent mission in the ME — in the midst of a demographic transition, spreading literacy, and with it radical terrorist solutions to the young males there — to an older Petroleum Geologist from Oklahoma, and doing this transformational vision messaging better than Bush or Pubbies were then doing, according to him.

    Bush never regained this Vision, himself, however. Although he won re-election, I did not vote for him (only holding my nose, voting for Palin and the traitor Senator in 2008).

    Thus, if the GOP nominates a working man appeal candidate in 2004, then gains among black people can be consolidated higher than Trump does this year, I believe. If an old school GOP accountant type is nominated, instead, then this opportunity will get lost.

    A remaining issue is cities and suburbs. My understanding is that it is the suburbs that are where ethnic and racial diversity is changing fastest. (Which also staunches the appeal of CRT and post-post modernist racist mongering.) How does Trumpism change and expanding GOP voter interest figure into state and urban-suburban dynamics?

    This election year and the future complicates old pictures, and re-arranges interest group alignment, for sure. But who compellingly sketches out how this (might) shakes out?

  18. The 46% and 37% numbers are hard to take seriously, and likely outliers in what is a daily tracking poll. The other numbers are believable. Average them out and you get, roughly 27-28%.

    As Aesop’s link showed, approval does not translate to votes; not even close. But if slightly over half are still voting Biden, this would still leave 12-13% potential Trump voters (there would still be undecideds to convince). 12-13%, up from 8% in 2016, could be crucial. It could make the difference in swing states with sizeable black populations… specifically Michigan and Pennsylvania.

  19. Hi, Barry. That story about Wesley Hunt was quite interesting – thanks for relaying it.

    If I wanted to make a politically incorrect joke, I could trot out the one about a black man being invisible at night. 🙂 But seriously, I thought it unfortunate that the photos in the article didn’t capture his face very well – blurry and hard to make out his expressions. Of course, it’s someone’s back yard and probably no one thought to bring in any portable lighting for the occasion. Oh, well. One of the several reasons why I have a soft spot for John James, for example, is the fact that he’s a strikingly handsome man, I think. Looks like Mr. Hunt could have a similar sort of appeal if somebody knew how to photograph him properly.

    Another little funny point about the last photo is the woman who has her hand on her friend’s, um… wallet. 😀

  20. Post-edit/update: checked on Mr. Hunt’s website – much better image capture there (no surprise – if you’re providing web publicity, you’d better make your guy look good if you want to get paid!).

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