Why panic is popular
When I was a child I liked to read. Actually, I still like to read – obviously. But as a child there was a limit to the books to which I had access. The library only let me into the children’s section until I reached a certain age – twelve, I believe. That made a tremendous dent in my reading choices.
But when I was around ten, a bookstore catalogue started coming to our house. I would pore over it for hours, studying the selections and planning to buy one or two. I had a little money saved up from birthdays and such, and in those days mail order stores accepted cash. And so one of the first books I purchased was the venerable Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Obviously, a blogger in the making.
I didn’t read the whole thing, but I read enough, and understood enough, to get the picture: sometimes a sort of contagion swept a group of people, or the entire world, and they came under the grip of some sort of hope or fear that wasn’t warranted by facts. It’s a lesson that proved to be valuable, although of course it’s not always easy to tell what’s reasonable and what’s unreasonable.
Which brings us to this recent comment by “KyndyllG”:
It’s been well over a month since responsible health organizations and medical professionals began encountering, and producing reports about, significant numbers of mild and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. This undermined, to at least some extent, the original reports out of China, which are the source of all of the panic. There has been a sort of online tug-of-war ever since.
If anyone or anything says something or issues a report or statement that should make reasonable people reconsider fear, doom and panic, a swarm of people show up to make posts that translate to, “No! No! Panic! More doom!” It’s weird. I’m not really a tinfoil hat brigade member, but after watching this for more than a month, I really do wonder if there’s organized groups trying to gin up ongoing panic at the forum/social media level.
I don’t know the answer to that last part. I suspect there are some such groups, but I think the cause of the phenomenon so far is mostly a combination of a host of additional factors. The first, of course (as previously mentioned in various posts), is that panic sells, in the sense of engendering viewership and clicks. The second (also previously mentioned) is the constant effort by the left and the MSM to harm Trump.
But the other factors are just part of human nature. One is that this is in part a statistical, and therefore a math and logic, issue. In order to understand illness and epidemiology, a person must understand not just math but the difference between death rates in the population versus death rates among the sick; how a sickness is defined and what percentage of those who are infected enter into the statistics at all; and how vulnerability, treatment, and statistics-keeping as well as reporting and candor varies from country to country and time to time.
I have come to the conclusion that most people either have trouble with all of that and/or let their emotions override their ability to process it. And granted, it’s quite complex. Maybe even boring to most people. So when a politician or a member of the news, or even a blogger or even a commenter on a blog gives a figure that sounds authoritative, and the reader/listener is already afraid, fear can escalate beyond what seems reasonable, given the facts.
Then of course there is what you might call the “unknown unknowns.” There is a tremendous limit to our knowledge, particularly at the beginning of the gathering of information about what appears to be a novel disease. For example, with H1N1, it took many years to get any real sense of the statistics and what they meant, and even now much of it is just an estimate. That’s the nature of the game. So fear can often rush into this semi-vacuum.
And then there’s what one might call the trust issue. A great many people have grown to deeply distrust the MSM, the authorities, the health care system, and just about everyone else who might be speaking on the subject. And since there is a huge spectrum of opinions, the reader can pick and choose as he or she wishes. You can get your fear du jour or your reassurance du jour, and being objective is probably rather rare.
It’s also the case that perceived threats that are novel tend to generate more fear than threats to which we’ve become accustomed. That’s another one of those “human nature” phenomena. It’s the main reasons why arguments – which I’ve even mounted myself on this blog, and plan to continue to mount – that compare COVID-19 to pneumonia or flu or H1N1 fail to reach most people. They may not realize it, but on some level they’ve accepted those risks but they don’t want to accept a new one.
Italy surprises me. I read a report today that the government is calling for a nationwide quarantine. The same report stated there are 9,000 confirmed cases in a nation of 60,000,000 people. Why this requires quarantining the entire population escapes me.
At least in the affluent western society it comes down to too many people living bored lives with lack of meaning therefore they latch onto causes and things to fill that need. This definitely explains the global warming fanatics. It’s their religion.
And with this flu it’s mostly boredom which leads people to read hysterical twitter people and leads to panic.
In my own life I know that when I am busy doing work or some other project I don’t follow news as much and I’m almost always happier.
Boredom is a real problem in our increasingly easy lives.
One might be panicked not by the disease, but by what the panicked might do. And the same for other looming catastrophes.
I too noticed the seemingly large number of pro-Panic people. I think I maybe even mentioned it here. I KNOW I mentioned it over at Instapundit , where I was ‘shouted down’ by some surprising regulars there.
There are a shocking number of typically reasonable regulars over there acting like their hair is on fire.
Even if it were as bad as some of the more horrific rumors say, that attitude wouldn’t help. But it’s like talking to a wall. I’ve stopped reading and commenting there as much as I regularly did.
parker:
Apparently it has to do with the poor and easily-overwhelmed health care system. See this:
Why are so very many doctors getting sick (or is that an exaggeration)? Don’t they follow infectious disease protocol? I haven’t heard of so many doctors getting sick in other countries.
More:
Also, the entire quarantine is quite disorganized:
Richard Aubrey:
That’s pretty much the way I’m looking at it right now.
Of course, if new facts emerge that support a more serious threat from this, I will get more frightened. But right now, what frightens me is the escalating panic in the face of not much reason for it.
Fractal Rabbit:
The Instapundit blog has a daily feature that has a ton of links to articles that seem designed to fan the flames of fear. I’m not sure why that’s happening, because it’s not characteristic of that blog as I know it.
At the same time and at the same blog, there are links to articles (usually separate links, not in the same posts as the others) that counsel caution.
“And then there’s what one might call the trust issue.”
Which is aggravated by what might be called the “reflexively antagonistic” stance of most social media discourse today: conflict produces more distinction, engagement and recollection, so conflict is provoked wherever possible. I genuinely don’t remember in the past there being as much acrimony and vitriol over disagreeing analyses as today: people who draw comparisons to flu or H1N1 for assessing COVID-19’s danger level aren’t just told, “While understandable, this is wrong, and here’s why,” but sneered at, denounced and belittled: “If you think this is just another flu, shut up, sit down and let the adults talk. You’re not helping.”
The big mistake of this approach, I’ve always believed, is that it trades persuasiveness for memorability; yes, I’ll remember an angry and contemptuous correction longer than I’ll remember a polite one, but I’m less likely to believe or cooperate with it.
I suggest that Michael Ramirez “said” it best back in 2008:
https://www.erictyson.com/custom/Ramirez%20Cartoon.JPG
Re: Instapundit. Glenn Reynolds has no spleen, which puts him at higher than normal risk for infections like this. His interest may be personal.
Re: Italy. It has the oldest population in Europe. Italians smoke a lot. And even in the north, its health care infrastructure is not like ours in the US.
Re: Panic. What are we supposed to think of the Governor of New York deploying the National Guard in New Rochelle? What, are the observant Jews who got the virus at the synagogue refusing to stay home? Are they threatening their neighbors? I presume the answer to those two questions is “no.”
“That’s another one of those “human nature” phenomena. It’s the main reasons why arguments – which I’ve even mounted myself on this blog, and plan to continue to mount – that compare COVID-19 to pneumonia or flu or H1N1 fail to reach most people. ”
There’s an easy explanation given by the famous C&W song: “God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.”
I, and the people in my sphere, have always leaned toward being moderate “germaphobes”. We have long functioned in all the behaviors that are currently being espoused so none of us are particularly concerned based on the numbers. In fact we feel a little safer because more people are paying attention to health-preserving conduct. As for Italy, and I apologize in advance for any offense to Italian readers (ethnically I am 1/2 Irish, 1/2 Italian) when I was there in 2014 my take-away was Italy functioned like a 3rd-world country with a 1st-world veneer. I loved it, but the strikes etc. Forget a store like a Target or grocery chain; no Monoprix, like France. I spent a week in Rome and a week at the Amalfi Coast; the lack of infrastructure was evident.
Okay. Here’s where I wonder whether I should even be concerned. I’m seventy five. Been a grunt. An athlete. Do serious “yard” work…living in the country. None of my health issues have involved infections, bugs, virii, etc. except where injuries got infected. I’ve had broken ribs, tore up my rotator cuffs, knees might need to be replaced.
Heart valve repair makes me in better shape than most guys twenty years younger. Okay. Ten years at least.
In the last ten or fifteen years I’ve had a couple of bad colds which required me to take antihistamine. No fever, no serious coughs, lethargy indistinguishable from that caused by a bad night’s sleep.
Whatever I’ve been exposed to failed to annoy me. I’ve never smoked.
How seriously am I supposed to take this thing? Considering the death rate is highest in the elderly with compromised health issues.
I’d better not be stricken with this. I have neighbors who are far more vulnerable and they may need help sooner than I can get a XXL hazmat suit with size 15 boots. Ace Hardware is backordered, I hear.
I suspect my best action is not to be a vector.
Sadly, my wife is susceptible to constant anxiety. Maybe it is common among Octogenarians, although my thought is: “at this point, why worry?”. Not the same as don’t get angry at what you see.
Anyway, I frequently remind her–to no avail–that there are whole industries, very large industries, that thrive by stoking anxiety. If they can create panic, then it is a home run. TV is chock full of programs that use fear and anxiety as attractants and gap fillers. Even The Weather Channel has become a prime example.
So, I am not surprised that the media, many politicians, and some health bureaucracies are playing the COVID-19 for all that it is worth; and more. It works. The government is already committed to throwing $8.5B against the wall to show that politicians care. Politicians are exercising more power than they dreamed of a few weeks ago. Regulators are regulating at a frantic pace. There is even hope that it can be used to bring down Trump–obviously he schemed this in collusion with Putin. Meanwhile, just as in every other year, people around the world get sick, and many die from the flu. With rare exception, this recurring phenomenon is only noted in passing. Wash your hands.
Here in the state of Washington they have announced today new regulations on nursing homes which I think are pretty good as a whole.
My mom isn’t in a nursing home but in a senior living facility where she lives totally independently but her facility is going to follow the regulations. So very limited visitors from the outside and cautionary self quarantining. But residents will still be allowed around the building if they are showing no symptoms which she is not. Her only question is for how long will this last?
AT 74 and with smoking the better part of ten years in the rear view mirror and with health reasonable given the arrest and the stent put in at that time, I’m still sensitive to colds and seek to avoid them but not to a fanatical extent.
Chico CA, where I live, is still rolling along in a fairly normal pattern. I did see a very elderly couple in the grocery store yesterday wearing masks but that is all to date.
Still, I decided to be prudent in case I have to self-quarantine for a bit and hauled myself off to the local Safeway today.
There– no masks but there has been a run on cough and cold remedies. Not to bare shelves but looking a bit sparse. Ditto toilet paper.
Nevertheless, I elected for prudence and procured cough and cold medicines that should see me through any cold short of hospitialization along with various soups, dry supplies, sauces, raman, pasta, sauces, sauce mixes, long storage add-in stuff for pasta (refrigerator but tight sealed already cooked 1 lb pork chipolte has a sell/useby date in late June).
All in all, I just blew past $174.00 which is a personal best for one live-alone guy like me in Safeway.
Look at it this way, if it blows over I have enough stored goods to get me through June with no shopping at all. If not, this geezer does not have to take his machete to brave the panic shopping crowds a week or two from now.
That and I keep the tank of gas topped up and the powder out of the rain.
Okay, I read a news report that says the National Guard in New Rochelle will be delivering meals and assisting with cleaning public facilities. I hope they will be taking precautions.
The drip drip drip reporting of this also leads to the unease which leads people to panic. It feels impossible to escape. At least here in Washington they are running scrawls along bottom screen on TV so try to relax and watch no sir you must be reminded.
Arthur Koestler wrote about what he called the Tragic and the Trivial planes of life. As explained by his friend, the writer and fighter pilot Richard Hillary:
“K has a theory for this. He believes there are two planes of existence which he calls vie tragique and vie triviale. Usually we move on the trivial plane, but occasionally in moments of elation or danger, we find ourselves transferred to the plane of the vie tragique, with its non-commonsense, cosmic perspective. When we are on the trivial plane, the realities of the other appear as nonsense–as overstrung nerves and so on. When we live on the tragic plane, the realities of the other are shallow, frivolous, frivolous, trifling. But in exceptional circumstances, for instance if someone has to live through a long stretch of time in physical danger, one is placed, as it were, on the intersection line of the two planes; a curious situation which is a kind of tightrope-walking on one’s nerves…I think he is right.”
I think the attraction to ultimate catastrophes…whether the assumed flooding due to Climate Change, or the danger of America being taken over by the Ku Klux Klan, or the exaggeration of the very real dangers of coronavirus…is related to this. People who live entirely on Koestler’s Trivial Plane, looking for a little connection to Ultimate Things.
Addendum: I also stopped by the bank and withdrew a chunk of cash in hundreds, fifties, and twenties. Good to have on had for payment and for tips if you have to stay in and rely on people to do things for you or deliver things for you.
Provide. Provide.
Okay, okay, stop me before I reference again!
====================
Provide, Provide by Robert Frost
The witch that came (the withered hag)
To wash the steps with pail and rag,
Was once the beauty Abishag,
The picture pride of Hollywood.
Too many fall from great and good
For you to doubt the likelihood.
Die early and avoid the fate.
Or if predestined to die late,
Make up your mind to die in state.
Make the whole stock exchange your own!
If need be occupy a throne,
Where nobody can call you crone.
Some have relied on what they knew;
Others on simply being true.
What worked for them might work for you.
No memory of having starred
Atones for later disregard,
Or keeps the end from being hard.
Better to go down dignified
With boughten friendship at your side
Than none at all. Provide, provide!
I’m sorry, but if you think this is “just the flu,” I think you’re terribly mistaken.
Of course there’s an organized attempt to incite panic, because OrangeManBad. The usual suspects are positively gleeful that this pandemic might cause political damage to Trump and kill his supporters- but so what? Fantasizing about killing their enemies and finger-pointing is about all they can do well.
First, the global supply chain is hosed. China is all but shutdown, ending the US supply for a rather large portion of our medications, among other problems. Would you like to bet this will be resolved before it causes major disruptions?
Second, a host of industries related to travel are in deep trouble. Want to take a cruise right now?
Third, the expensive bureaucracies we’ve been maintaining for decades to handle a pandemic are reacting about as well as a whole herd of deer about to get washed away by a tsunami. Why, exactly, can’t this country manage to test for this disease?
Fourth, I suspect approximately no one really believes what the government and media are saying about this. Certainly Trump supporters don’t, thanks to long experience. Thus, if some government minion tells you to self-quarantine, maybe you think of all the effort wasted by the CDC on pushing gun control- and you go about your business as usual, because it’s just the flu. Or, alternately, you panic buy all the toiler paper you can find, because you think the regime is covering up an imminent apocalypse. Both are bad.
It is at least plausible that this is a engineered bioweapon. It certainly appears to be much more infectious than the usual flu, and I’m reading people who suggest it is 30 times more lethal. Maybe, maybe not- but it certainly doesn’t look like a typical flu virus to me.
Alas, we’re going to find out.
I don’t grok all the reports of people hoarding large quantities of toilet paper.
It certainly appears to be much more infectious than the usual flu, . . .
It certainly does not. Most likely because it isn’t.
Look at it this way, if it blows over I have enough stored goods to get me through June with no shopping at all.
I’d like to note that this is completely reasonable and rational- it’s what I’ve done- but if enough people do it all at once it looks just like panic.
If I’m wrong and this does turn out to be nothing more than a bad flu season, then I’ll have preshopped for the next couple months. I might also get a great deal on a cruise.
But otherwise, I’m prepared for a quarantine.
It certainly does not. Most likely because it isn’t.
How do you know this?
From what I’ve read, the R-nought for the flu is below 2.
For this, it’s above 4, without the sort of extreme measures employed by China.
That alone would make it far worse than a typical flu.
Xennady…”First, the global supply chain is hosed. China is all but shutdown, ending the US supply for a rather large portion of our medications, among other problems. Would you like to bet this will be resolved before it causes major disruptions?”
One would hope that this situation would lead to serious rethinking of supply-chain flexibility and fragility, on the part of many companies and various ‘experts’.
Taleb has pointed out that it is often possible to design a system so that it will show good results in *most* periods, but terrible results every now and then. And ‘every now and then’ occurs a lot more often than nornal-curve statistics would suggest.
One would hope that this situation would lead to serious rethinking of supply-chain flexibility and fragility, on the part of many companies and various ‘experts’.
I sure hope this will lead to a serious rethinking of a lot of things, but “experts”…
What would we do without them?
Taleb has pointed out
I’d review Taleb’s public remarks made on the financial system in 2008 and 2009 and compare them to subsequent events. I’d do that ‘ere you quote him again.
I base my view of this on this (not on an R-nought which I think unknown currently): the bug has been boiling away in China since early December, if not before, and there are 80 thousand plus “known” cases, which if I multiply by a factor of ten comes to merely 800 thousand in three and a third months at minimum. And what do we see there? It is already burning out, no?
Last year the US alone had how many flu cases? 45 million Oct-Feb?
First, the global supply chain is hosed. China is all but shutdown, ending the US supply for a rather large portion of our medications, among other problems. Would you like to bet this will be resolved before it causes major disruptions?
The epidemic appears to have subsided there, with hardly any new cases. About 80% of their cases were in the province of Hubei. Even if the entire country were ‘all but shut down’, they should be in a position to resume business in a few weeks. China is, by the way responsible for 11% of world exports by value. You need to get a grip.
Xennady:
Depends what you mean by “worse.”
One of the hallmarks of flu-type illnesses (and many other illnesses) is that ordinarily the more highly contagious they are the less likely they are to cause serious problems. That’s why the “ordinary” flu (and there are many strains with different contagiousness and lethality for each) tends to be highly contagious and relatively innocuous for most people. And that’s why something like MERS which killed a fairly high percentage of sufferers, as far as we know, was not so very contagious.
There are exceptions, but they are quite unusual and don’t come along too often, thankfully.
There is no indication from the statistics I’ve seen that COVID-19 is either highly contagious or highly lethal. It seems to be rather in the middling range, something like 2009 H1N1 but so far probably not as bad in terms of the toll it will take. H1N1 certainly wasn’t nothing, of course. But it didn’t kill anywhere near as many people as flu does. Or, you could compare COVID-19 to pneumonia, which is a common disease and even more dangerous, as far as I can see.
As we learn more, these statistics may be revised. But at the moment, they do not indicate a situation all that different from that of other novel viruses that emerge with some regularity.
By the way, N1N1 killed mostly young people. Very tragic, but somehow the world didn’t react the same way as now. COVID-19 kills mostly old people. I don’t consider old people dispensable – after all, I’m one of them – but the death of young people is especially disturbing.
parker:
I think they’re preparing for a lengthy quarantine and being house-bound and unable to buy necessities such as toilet paper.
Xennady:
Also, you write: “I’m sorry, but if you think this is ‘just the flu,’ I think you’re terribly mistaken.”
Who is this “you” you’re addressing? I don’t see anyone saying that here, although I haven’t read every single word of every comment.
Although the American Left can’t be entirely blamed for the corona virus panic, they’re obviously stoking the fires as much as they can.
A couple of personal(?) examples:
I’m a basketball fan, so I was disgusted to read that the Ivy League has canceled both their men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. Maybe the number of infections will increase to the point that such an action could be justified, but we’re not even close to that yet. This is an obvious publicity stunt to wound Trump.
And just a few minutes ago, I read that Grinnell College has canceled classes for the rest of the semester. This is unprecedented. Grinnell is a small liberal arts college in the middle of Iowa. As with the the Ivy League, this is a highly selective college full of smart people fully capable of understanding that the current risk to students is too small to even measure. There are few places in the country where students could be safer. Again, as with the Ivy League, this is a political stunt. The school has always tilted Left, but this level of political corruption is shocking, and I’m ashamed to admit that I went to college there.
Propaganda over all.
Neo: Why are so very many doctors getting sick (or is that an exaggeration)? Don’t they follow infectious disease protocol? I haven’t heard of so many doctors getting sick in other countries.
I have followed this from the start, which does not make me an expert on anything other than what is being said. Which is, this thing is extremely contagious, even if it may not be extremely lethal.
And let me get this straight, are we concerned about overwhelmed hospitals being unable to cope with a deluge of patients, many of whom may have severe reactions to this thing? So – not to encourage panic – does this mean that the panic may have some basis after all, or are our governments around the world suddenly get hysterical over a regular old flu?
It does not bother anyone that this is very out of character behavior by authorities (governmental and corporate, eg Apple telling staff to work from home)?
Either way you slice it. Something is very fishy here. This does not appear to just be a bunch of silly regional, local and national governments freaking out for the fun of it all.
The reports on this thing in January treated it like Sars, ie no big deal. It hardly made headlines. I didn’t see a lot of fear and hysteria being whipped up. If anything the silence was deafening. While in China people were being welded into their apartments. And while people were beating up strangers who fled from Wuhan. (There is footage of this happening up on YT, let me know if you want links).
The preferred narrative here seems to be “aren’t people just so silly.” I suspect it is more than that.
I base my view of this on this…
I beg pardon, but did you miss the part about how China essentially shut down because of this?
They had no reason to take such a drastic measure for “just the flu.”
Perhaps they’ve stopped the spread of this disease- I don’t trust anything they say- but absent those extreme and brutal quarantine measures I doubt very much they’d only have 80k or 800k cases or pick-a-number.
I agree that the R0 is unknown, but it certainly is highly than a typical flu- and I think the evidence suggests much higher.
“First, the global supply chain is hosed. China is all but shutdown, ending the US supply for a rather large portion of our medications, among other problems. Would you like to bet this will be resolved before it causes major disruptions?”
Among the many things I am grateful to the President for are nuggets of information that our wonderful media manages to ignore (ie cheating on NAFTA – importation of substandard Chinese steel and aluminium by Canada and Mexico and resale to the US as their own products) There is an astonishing quantity of our prescription medications that come from China and there have been recalls on many of them, as described by the people that have been notified of the recalls. Some of these life sustaining medications, even though made elsewhere, are dependent on “precursor chemicals” apparently available only in China. This is not a really good idea. President Trump just keeps breaking those rice bowls – no wonder he isn’t popular with the “expert elite”
Who is this “you” you’re addressing? I don’t see anyone saying that here, although I haven’t read every single word of every comment.
No one in particular, deliberately. I have a ghastly sense that many people with the same sort of political inclinations as myself aren’t taking the potential problems from this pandemic seriously because they recall being lied to over and over again by the same folks who are now attempting to incite panic.
I hope I’m wrong, but to me this reaction looks like the boy who cried wolf when the wolf finally came.
There is no indication from the statistics I’ve seen that COVID-19 is either highly contagious or highly lethal.
I’m seeing otherwise. Again, I hope I’m wrong.
I might also get a great deal on a cruise.
I booked my daughter and myself on an August trip to London ten days ago. If I’d waited until today, I’d have saved $1100, or slightly over 40%.
Dammit.
In the latest report in Washington they have 267 positives ,24 deaths (20 at the nursing home) and 2,175 negative results.
That last number is the one I’m not sure what to make of. The firefighters who went to the nursing home have 1 positive and 20 negatives.
The epidemic appears to have subsided there, with hardly any new cases.
You know this because the brutal Chinese dictatorship tells you so. Maybe they’re telling the truth, maybe not. What happens when they lift the quarantine? What’s happening in the countryside? I don’t know, and neither do you.
Even if the entire country were ‘all but shut down’, they should be in a position to resume business in a few weeks.
They could resume business in a few weeks? That is, a couple months. Have you thought about all the problems that will cause?
China is, by the way responsible for 11% of world exports by value. You need to get a grip.
11% by value? My God, you need to get a clue. You must a free trade advocate. Almost all medications are made in China and those that aren’t too often have precursor chemicals made there.
See the problem?
How long will it take for either China to resume exports or alternate suppliers to come on line?
My guess- too long to avoid significant disruptions.
And I haven’t even mentioned problems with manufactured items of lesser immediacy than medications.
What happens to Ford motor company when they can’t make vehicles “for a few weeks” because their single-source for heater cores is in China and no one is answering the phone because everyone is quarantined?
Nothing good, I bet.
I’m of course aware of China’s use of quarantines, Xennady. (They did so somewhat belatedly though, no?)
Why isn’t quarantine done with the influenza every year? Would such measures stop it? Or would they fail to stop the flu, all while wrecking whatever economy they fall upon? The flu range of yearly death toll in the US seems to run from 13,000 to 69,000 (barring 1918-20 600,000), so nothing to scoff at.
Too, I’m just not seeing the supposed high virulence in places to which nCov19 escaped from China prior to the general alarms. It seems to have crept puttering along unknown, unrecognized and then relatively swiftly arrested in most places (save, perhaps, for the case of Iran), which I’m not persuaded would be possible with influenza today. I don’t know this, of course, but merely surmise.
In “From confidence to quarantine: how coronavirus swept Italy”:
11% by value? My God, you need to get a clue. You must a free trade advocate. Almost all medications are made in China and those that aren’t too often have precursor chemicals made there.
No clue where this meme ‘almost all medications are made in China’ arose. You need to stop listening to the voices in your head and stop listening to the voices in the heads of reporters, whose business is sensationalizing. As for me, I lived through the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974 and lived to tell the tale.** Less than 5% of China’s population lives in the province of Hubei. I seriously doubt the entire country is currently holed up at home.
** (Reviewing public policy initiatives regarding all sorts of merchandise trade during the period running from 1970 to 1974 gives you a sense of what Ronald Reagan meant when he said, “Don’t just do something, stand there”. The agency which needed to do something was the Federal Reserve Board, which was run by a politically-connected economist who had persuaded himself that the somethings his predecessor had done quite successfully in 1951 and 1952 would not work because reasons).
AD…”I’d review Taleb’s public remarks made on the financial system in 2008 and 2009 and compare them to subsequent events. I’d do that ‘ere you quote him again.”
Not a valid critiquie. I’m not arguing from authority here…The statement I quoted makes logical sense, independent of how accurate or inaccurate Taleb has been in prior analyses.
sdferr,
I really hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
Nuff’ said.
AD….” China is, by the way responsible for 11% of world exports by value.”
To make a manufactured product, you need ALL of its component parts or ingredients. One missing component/ingredient, if there is no available substitute…and there often is not…can keep you from making the product.
This report from the U.S. Trade Representative does not specify the value of pharmaceutical imports from China.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
The implication, though, is that the figure was in 2018 less than $19 bn. We’ve been importing about $128 bn in pharmaceuticals each year from all sources. No clue what the mark up would be on these imports. Personal consumption of pharmaceuticals from all sources is currently running at about $440 bn a year.
Not a valid critiquie. I’m not arguing from authority here…
They why cite him?
One missing component/ingredient, if there is no available substitute…and there often is not…can keep you from making the product.
You mean ‘for want of a nail’ etc etc. Some people on this board are beginning to sound like Rod Dreher (who, I’d wager, is coked to the gills on psychotropics).
No clue where this meme ‘almost all medications are made in China’ arose.
Perhaps from people noticing reality. One of my sources is a guy who works in an emergency room and made a point to check and see how much stuff was sourced from China.
Spoiler: A whole lot. Don’t expect to see more of all that until that country solves their own pandemic problem. It isn’t only medication.
You need to stop listening to the voices in your head and stop listening to the voices in the heads of reporter…
Calm down, before you have an aneurysm. My sources are people whom I believe have specific knowledge relevant to current events, not idiot media drones who know nothing and understand less.
As for me, I lived through the oil embargo in 1973 and 1974 and lived to tell the tale.
I’m not sure what your anecdotes about the last century have to do with the topic at hand, but you do you, boo.
I see I need to repeat my comment from yesterday;
Given that far, far more people die every year from the ordinary flu, I’m beginning to think that the OVID-19 virus, as an infectious disease is a “big nothing burger” and, an utter failure as a bioweapon. I suspect cultures lacking in basic hygiene and poor medical infrastructure account for much of the deaths.
“I Have Coronavirus: Quarantined Patient Details Life Aboard Diamond Princess and in Isolation Units”
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-03-08-coronavirus-patient-describes-life-on-cruise-ship-in-quarantine
Despite spending weeks together confined to their stateroom… neither of the two couples wives contracted the virus… so just how ‘contagious’ can it really be? Perhaps there’s a not uncommon immunity to it?
Perhaps from people noticing reality. One of my sources is a guy who works in an emergency room and made a point to check and see how much stuff was sourced from China.
My source is the actual statistics on imports from China, remarked above.
I’m not sure what your anecdotes about the last century have to do with the topic at hand, but you do you, boo.
The term ‘anecdote’ does not mean what you fancy it means. That aside, since we’re discussing the effect of supply interruptions abroad on the domestic economy, I don’t think my point is all that obscure.
The implication, though, is that the figure was in 2018 less than $19 bn. We’ve been importing about $128 bn in pharmaceuticals each year from all sources. No clue what the mark up would be on these imports. Personal consumption of pharmaceuticals from all sources is currently running at about $440 bn a year.
Holy Sweet Jebus am I tired of this. Bluntly, the United States does not produce a vast assortment of critical items, including medications. If the foreigners who do produce them suddenly can’t, either because they simply prefer not to or happen to be dead, we’re porked.
This is a key argument against the free trade shinola we’ve all been buried under for my entire life. Your beloved math equations about economics aren’t the sum total of all reality, shock.
Notice this, you fools.
No, of course you won’t, because dogma.
This was about a week ago.
Presumably all the more reason not to worry. Who needs imported stuff. Buy American dammit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqtC-DElPU
A lengthy post on symptoms and behavioral advice from a purported expert.
In the comments at the JustOneMinute blog.
I’m no expert but it seems plausible enough to re-post here, hope y’all don’t mind.
https://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2020/03/staggering-along.html?cid=6a00d83451b2aa69e20240a5154768200b#comment-6a00d83451b2aa69e20240a5154768200b
Because the oil embargo of 1973 (Yom Kippur War fall out) is much the same as interruption in the supply of manufactured products from China.
Supply interruptions won’t work out well for China.
Yeah, voices in whose head?
Holy Sweet Jebus am I tired of this.
Too bad.
Regarding the supply chain histrionics, I’m reminded of that possibly apocryphal quote about the Chinese character for ‘Crisis’ being a combination of the characters for ‘Danger’ and ‘Oppurtunity’.
My worries regarding this virus are, in order:
1) My parents and my in-laws. All four are in their late 60’s and 70’s. And all four have underlying health problems. COPD, diabetes, RA with a prescription that makes a person immuno-compromised. Their prime targets and I’m pretty attached to all four of them.
2) Panic making the problem far worse than it should be.
But, back to the supply chain, while it might hurt for little bit, wait until the American can-do spirit gets up and running. This is the silver lining on the cloud, my friends. Here’s our opportunity. To remind the world, especially the Chinese what the Sleeping Giant is capable of when it wakes up.
I was once a world traveler to some degree and I have worked with many different nationalities over the years. There are no problem solvers in the world like Americans.
Fractal Rabbit:
Thanks, “reality,’ good the hear some of it.
My source is the actual statistics on imports from China, remarked above.
At the risk of repeating myself, you haven’t actually addressed the key point. That is, the US can’t presently make our own medicine. Or, many other important things, but all that is a shade off topic.
That aside, since we’re discussing the effect of supply interruptions abroad on the domestic economy, I don’t think my point is all that obscure.
It seems pretty obscure to you, because you apparently didn’t notice the terrible impact the oil embargo had upon the US economy at the time.
I suspect the present dilemma will have at least as serious an impact as that oil crisis did- but I hope I am wrong.
At the risk of repeating myself, you haven’t actually addressed the key point. That is, the US can’t presently make our own medicine.
I addressed that point above. You elect not to read it.
you apparently didn’t notice the terrible impact the oil embargo had upon the US economy at the time.
Actually, there was an ordinary business recession, exacerbated by other factors. The rate at which goods and services were produced declined (in real terms) by 3.2% between the 4th q of 1973 and the 1st q of 1975. The rate of production returned to pre-recession values by the 4th q of 1975.
I addressed that point above. You elect not to read it.
I did read what you wrote. The US can’t presently produce medicine, stop.
You recited a statistics of no relevance, demonstrating no comprehension of the problem.
You’re a fool.
The rate at which goods and services were produced…
Math equation says wheeee.
Just stop, fool.
You recited a statistics of no relevance, demonstrating no comprehension of the problem.
My statistics were quite relevant. They included the value of imports and an upper bound on imports from China, as well as the value of final demand in this country. The implications are not esoteric, but you keep not getting it. Cannot help you.
Math equation says wheeee.
That does seem to fry your circuits. I think were getting to the source of your problem.
The library only let me into the children’s section until I reached a certain age – twelve, I believe.
my parents signed releases and papers so i had an adult card when i was 8 or 9…
what a waste of a life…
Artfldgr:
Sometimes if my mother had time she would let me go with her into the adult section and I’d select a couple of books and she would take them out for me. But I remember the day I “graduated” to the adult section – it was great!
Xennady:
I call your attention to this.
Please make your points without the name-calling.
“In order to understand illness and epidemiology, a person must understand not just math but the difference between …I have come to the conclusion that most people either have trouble with all of that and/or let their emotions override their ability to process it. ” – Neo
This book has been one of my favorites for years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_%28book%29
I AM a math person, and I still have problem getting the stats laid out correctly.
Some people can’t add 2 and 2 and reliably get 4 (and that was BEFORE the “we all have our own math now” insanity).
On the subject of drugs and China, here’s something from Vox. Yes, it’s Vox but still…
“What we do know, according to a 2019 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, is that almost 90 percent of the factories that make active pharmaceutical ingredients for the US market are located outside of the United States. And about 60 percent of the factories that manufacture the final products are outside the US. Again, this is not a percentage of US drugs made abroad, or the percentage that rely on ingredients from abroad. It is merely noting the location of the factories.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/9/21163356/coronavirus-drug-shortage-potential-fda-china-india
I don’t think it’s too crazy to suggest that in a world where everything from nuclear terrorism and pandemics to killer asteroids and solar storms that could wipe out national power grids are ALL real possibilities, having 90% of the factories making your drug ingredients located thousands of miles away across mountains, deserts, and oceans is probably not that great an idea.
Mike
JimNorCal on March 10, 2020 at 8:48 pm said:
A lengthy post on symptoms and behavioral advice from a purported expert.
In the comments at the JustOneMinute blog.
* * *
Some of the best advice I’ve seen, and also good tips for just regular flu – some I didn’t know, despite years of enduring the disease.
Here’s another link to the article, that isn’t buried in the comments of a blog:
https://puritanboard.com/threads/dr-james-robb-virologist-on-safety-and-the-covid-19-virus.101602/
One addendum from a commenter there: “get the elderberry-zinc lozenges. If you have to go out into a crowd, like the store or church, etc, you just stick one in your mouth and let it coat your throat until you get home.”
MBunge…”I don’t think it’s too crazy to suggest that in a world where everything from nuclear terrorism and pandemics to killer asteroids and solar storms that could wipe out national power grids are ALL real possibilities, having 90% of the factories making your drug ingredients located thousands of miles away across mountains, deserts, and oceans is probably not that great an idea.”
Indeed…and more generally, creating very large and closely-coupled systems, of whatever kind, has risks as well as advantages. The risk part of that equation tends to be ignored until something very bad happens. See my post Coupling:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/58361.html
parker on March 10, 2020 at 5:59 pm said:
I don’t grok all the reports of people hoarding large quantities of toilet paper.
neo on March 10, 2020 at 6:43 pm said:
parker:
I think they’re preparing for a lengthy quarantine and being house-bound and unable to buy necessities such as toilet paper.
* * *
Maybe a bit too blunt, but folks that sit down need more than folks that stand up.
And kids use too much all the time, except when they are forgetting to use it at all.
“What we do know, according to a 2019 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, is that almost 90 percent of the factories that make active pharmaceutical ingredients for the US market are located outside of the United States. And about 60 percent of the factories that manufacture the final products are outside the US. Again, this is not a percentage of US drugs made abroad, or the percentage that rely on ingredients from abroad. It is merely noting the location of the factories.”
I can see quoting aggregate volumes and aggregate values. I’m puzzled as to why the number of production points is of interest.
cases going up exponentially?
problem is that according to the chart… its leveled off world wide..
the number of cases is going to slow down fast…
119,027 and 4,284 as of 20 minutes ago..
984 cases in the US 28 died, and 8 recovered..
NY has 176 cases, 0 died, 0 recovered..
the reporting is unreal..
everyone is doing their best to help the cause of making it worse
“My statistics were quite relevant.”
The US cannot produce domestically the wide assortment of chemical compounds that comprise the modern panoply of pharmaceutical drugs.
But worse. We cannot even make mid 20th century antibiotics. Or N95 masks.
They included the value of imports and an upper bound on imports from China, as well as the value of final demand in this country..
Math, wheee.
You’re a fool who does not comprehend the issues at hand, let alone anything more abstract.
Good luck to you. I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
“I’m puzzled as to why the number of production points is of interest.”
Seriously? This is a pretty simple concept. If 90% of the factories that produce ingredients for drugs used in America are located outside the country, ANYTHING that interrupts transportation systems could quickly produce severe shortages of desperately needed medications.
It’s like living in a dangerous neighborhood but not having your own gun because you think you’ll just go next door and get your neighbor’s gun if anything happens.
Mike
If you don’t want to give clicks to Vox, you can try American Greatness.
I don’t, of course, know the source of the author’s assertions — but I don’t know the sources of most pundits’ pronouncements – only a very few of them actually footnote their posts. The CDC is referenced, though, and I don’t know whether they are considered trust-worthy at this point or not.
There’s a lot of known unknowns running around out there.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/10/wuhan-virus-exposes-the-danger-of-reliance-upon-china/
Artfldgr:
I agree. “Exponentially” has come to be a word like “literally.” Both of them are used now for emphasis rather than to mean the original things they used to mean.
How much food does China import?
Here is a voice of reason from a former Canadian health care official:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-strictly-by-the-numbers
They are undoubtably starting a panic and feeding it. More so they think it will change the election..
=====================================================
Coronavirus clusters swell on both sides of the USA
True numbers far above the official tally, scientists say
Fight enters a new phase as containment falters
Response could test limit of government powers
10 days from our hospitals getting creamed
May see blood shortages
Could happen here like Wuhan
No escape threat for 2 million crammed in prisons
Goodwin: trump needs to step up
Military struggles to respond
Three TSA employees in California test positive
=====================================================
USA 1039 confirmed, 29 deaths…
China 80,967 confirmed, 3162 deaths..
Hubei, Wuhan 67,773, 3046 deaths
This is irresponsible reporting.. IF they are going to report, Goodwin could say what he wants, there is nothing the president could say or do to mitigate crazy town.
For us to match Wuhan, would need the disease to suddenly increase by 6500%
Deaths would have to increase by 10,503%
Current numbers 121,061, 4,368 deaths worldwide..
In china…
It went from a few cases 1/20/20 to 10k 1/30/20
It hit 40k on 2/9/20 w the big jump on 2/16/20
After 2/17/20 it went from 74k to 81k now
world wide didn’t hit 10k till 3/2/20
its now 40k world wide..
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu.
For corona virus deaths to match the flu so far this year needs an increase of 68,965%
Seriously? This is a pretty simple concept. If 90% of the factories that produce ingredients for drugs used in America are located outside the country, ANYTHING that interrupts transportation systems could quickly produce severe shortages of desperately needed medications.
No, it’s not simple. How much are these factories producing, and what’s the sale value? You could call a backyard workshop employing three people a factory.
“How much are these factories producing, and what’s the sale value“
Dude, I know thinking you’re the smartest guy in the room is a thing with you but you look smarter if you know when to let it go. Are you suggesting the 10% of factories in America that produce drug ingredients could make up for the production of the 90% outside the country? Can you provide even ONE example where 10% of a production base has replaced the product of the other 90%?
And do you know ANYTHING about modern China? I’m far from an expert but I’m fairly sure the sort of backyard entrepreneurship you just referenced is not that big of a thing there, particularly when it comes to the production of pharmaceutical ingredients.
Mike
The US cannot produce domestically the wide assortment of chemical compounds that comprise the modern panoply of pharmaceutical drugs.
No, the U.S. imports a certain % of the pharmaceuticals it consumes. So does every other place on the globe. The bill for the imports accounts for about 1/4 of final demand for pharmaceuticals. By value, less than 15% of what we import is sourced to China.
I can explain something to you. I cannot comprehend it for you.
Thanks, Artfldgr, for the comment this morning and your comment last night on the misuse of “exponential”
Unfortunately you (we?) are just “pissing into the wind”. Rational, data based arguments are not working with this phenomenon. I’ve tried with relatives, and even my wife. They listen, but immediately dismiss the statistical arguments. This morning our governor of Connecticut, not to be outdone by other governors, declared a state emergency. The word “lemmings” came to mind. Maybe Neo could write a post on global mass hysteria. I think that is what we are witnessing.
Dude, I know thinking you’re the smartest guy in the room is a thing with you but you look smarter if you know when to let it go.
I appear to be the one person in this discussion who can do basic arithmetic. Get back to me when you’ve mastered it.
“You could call a backyard workshop employing three people a factory.
You could, but that could be accusing the other person being a liar or at best of not understanding the meaning of the word factory. That might be a dodge, 98% of the time with a 90% confidence interval.
https://althouse.blogspot.com/2020/03/for-months-as-part-of-research-project.html
While we’re at it, here’s another example of ‘the compliance people are enemies of mankind’. (NB, the compliance people everywhere are ultimately transmission belts for lawyers).
AesopFan,
Thank you for the link to the Dr. James Robb article, good practical advice.
All,
Perhaps I’m missing something but the argument between Art Deco and Xennady seems to me to be a case of them talking past each other over different aspects of this issue.
Art Deco citing statistical data is apparently offered as proof for his assumption that a collapse in medical supplies from China wouldn’t be as bad as Xennady assumes. In a particular case, he may well be right.
Xennady’s argument is that when basically only a single source of supply exists, then disruption in the production of that supply can be catastrophic, especially for those whose lives depend upon a reliable source of their needed medicine. Obviously, the potential for catastrophe exists.
Left unsaid is why medicine and medical supplies have gravitated away from being made in America. We all know that profit is the answer to that question. As long as that profit differential exists, manufacturers will resist relocating back to the US.
And forcing them to do so would be embracing Bernie Sanders’ ‘solution’. So too would subsidizing manufacturing in America. Which simply places a tax burden upon the public, which in turn affects spendable income.
However, there is a solution that is capitalistic in nature. Manufacturing of medicine and supplies in robotic factories with lower levels of management conducted by A.I. software. That solution would, on one hand lower prices but on the other hand, further reduce jobs for human beings.
But that is an issue that will be of increasing impact in a broad range of industries both in manufacturing and in the service sector.
What shall we do when the cost of production of consumer goods is so low that the materials involved are the primary factor in the cost to the consumer? And when jobs in the service sector are similarly affected?
I’ve pondered this and reluctantly concluded that at some point in the future, a “basic living stipend” may well be unavoidable.
I’m thinking that something along the lines of Alaskan citizens owning its oil resources and being paid similarly to stockholders may be a way to address this future issue in line with capitalism’s principles.
At some point, something will have to be done as it’s societally unsustainable to have a majority of people unemployed with no income. That’s a formula for social unrest and if unaddressed, revolution.
China’s pharmaceutical market is the second largest worldwide after the US, with $115bn in sales in 2015. It is also the world’s leading supplier of APIs by volume to the global market. Yet although China’s API manufacturers are major exporters, exports of FPPs are less significant.
Moreover, around 90% of drugs sold by local Chinese manufacturers are generic, although a raft of reforms being implemented by the government aims to change this. The hope is that more stringent drug quality regulations and other measures including the streamlining of pharmaceutical distribution channels will lead to consolidation and turn the sector into one that’s capable of coming up with innovative patentable products.
==============================================
There are many places worldwide that would want to see their business increase. Israel, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Switzerland especially as they have the highest manufacturing ability in Europe.
==============================================
In January 2017, US President Donald Trump called for a reversal of the trend of the past few years; instead of outsourcing more and more manufacturing to plants overseas, he wanted to bring pharmaceutical production back home to the US. It was an idea that industry association PhRMA strongly supported, saying that the president’s proposed new policies, which include removing outdated regulations and reforming the tax code, would translate to strong industry growth and as many as 350,000 new jobs over the next decade.
Although a significant amount of manufacturing already occurs stateside (around 60% of finished medications sold in the US are made locally), any move towards shifting the pharma production that happens overseas, such as API manufacturing, to America would be an incredibly complex process and one around which there remain many unanswered questions.
Perhaps it has something to do with the lack of understanding of statistics. I remember reading recently a recommendation to teach statistics instead of Algebra 2 in high school, so that we could all have a better understanding of how to interpret large-scale studies, and our general risk factors. Wouldn’t it be great if people could more easily understand basic scientific studies?
On another note, I was allowed to read anything and everything as a child, and read Jaws by Peter Benchley when I was about 12. Shocking in more ways than one.
“One addendum from a commenter there: “get the elderberry-zinc lozenges. If you have to go out into a crowd, like the store or church, etc, you just stick one in your mouth and let it coat your throat until you get home.” Aesopfan
I was about to buy the zinc lozenges for us and family but decided to look into it a little closer before the final click. I came across a study from Poland that equated use of zinc with prolonging a cold virus by as much as 3 weeks. No thanks. We’re sticking with careful hygiene, chicken soup, fluids and rest.
Here’s a repost of the link to the Globe and Mail opinion piece CarolAnne posted above. I got a 404 error when trying that. Haven’t read it yet, but thought to make the link available first. So: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-strictly-by-the-numbers-the-coronavirus-does-not-register-as-a-dire/
Exponential growth and epidemics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=412&v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=emb_logo
do note that we are past the inflection point…
you can see this on the johns hopkins page plots in the lower right corner.
The plots suddenly changed today…
i wonder what big number of something came in to do that…
perhaps if we go to kaggle, we can download the actual databases (i have)
its interesting what plots you can plot yourself…
Artfldgr:
Changed in what direction?
According to the chielf health officer of California,85% of people who get Covid-19 don’t even know they have it. That means both the hospitalizaton rate and the death rate are much, much lower than the 3.5% reported.
The media and the left are intentionally fearmongering as yet another means of trying to bring Trump down. As Neo notes in another posting, the Wuhan virus is just the flu/pneumonia that kills 10s of thousands every year — and no one panics. This panic – now resulting in schools and colleges closing, mass events being canceled, businesses telling their employees to telework — all of these have significant negative economic effects. The Dem primaries were turning into such a clusterf*ck and a Trump re-election a near certainty, that the left and MSM “pounced” on the Wuhan virus .
Heard an interview with a doctor here in Pierce County, Wa today and he commented that one of his colleagues is an ICU doctor and his comment was ‘where are all the patients?’ If there are so many sick people out there untested shouldn’t a portion of them already be hospitalized?
Griffin,
Well, that’s obviously because all of our social distancing efforts like work-from-home orders (and now our heroic Governor banning public assembly of more than 250 people) worked.
I love a good unfalsifiable hypothesis in the morning.
On the “pharmaceutical imports by value” argument, it occurs to me that the US probably “specializes” in the extremely high-cost items.
One $10,000-per-dose super chemo treatment made in the US pulls the average value way up in comparison to the $0.50-per-dose antihistamine made in China, but the second one is still lifesaving medicine.
Bryan and Griffin:
Glad not to live around the Sound (though I enjoyed living in Enumclaw back in 1983/84).
Our Jay is a hero indeed! 😉
Now it’s all hitting the fan. Tom Hanks has it (in Australia by the way) so now it’s hit a celebrity which hits the low information crowd.
And an NBA player so they suspended there season. My earlier prediction that the country would be shut down by Friday may have been off. It’ll be tomorrow.
Griffin:
Fortunately, the way he describes it, Tom Hanks and his wife have symptoms that sound like a rather mild case of flu. Hopefully, they will heal uneventfully.
Interesting that they caught it in Australia. Australia doesn’t have that many cases – at least, diagnosed cases.
Neo,
Yes, and the NBA player Rudy Gobert was going to play in the game tonight.