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Home » AOC’s district might not last too long

AOC’s district might not last too long

The New Neo Posted on by

I’ve read contradictory things about how the new census will affect representation in the House, but the latest appears to be that a state like New York might be losing a Congress member or two:

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may be a rising star in the Democratic Party, but the district she represents could potentially not exist following the 2020 Census since New York is expected to lose as many as two House seats.

According to The City, nearly 47 percent of her district is foreign-born, and more than a quarter are not citizens—both are segments of the population that are often underrepresented in the census due to concerns of taking part in an official government count, and her district has a higher percentage than any other district. This could mean that her district could be divided up in reapportionment, meaning that she might have to face another incumbent to stay in Congress. Frank Luntz says that the state’s Democrats are actually looking to “draw out” her district.

I don’t know whether or not this will actually happen. But an interesting effect of any exodus of population from blue states to red is that if it continues over time it will increase the number of Congressional representatives from red states and reduce the number from blue states. Unless, of course, the population of the blue states is replenished with new immigrants (many of them illegal) and their US-born citizen children. I have no idea how many of the residents of AOC’s district are illegal immigrants, but my guess is that it’s a significant percentage of the whole.

Comments

AOC’s district might not last too long — 18 Comments

  1. If you ask me, good riddence. It can’t happen soon enough to a representative who wants the government to subsidize “those who are unwilling to work.” We need her like a hole in the head.

  2. I think the Democrats would love to get rid of AOC. She is a Manchurian candidate with handlers.

  4. At the time the GOP eliminated the SALT deduction on fed. returns, I thought it was one of the very few recent instances of the GOP doing something bold, strategic, and risky. I think there has already been one failed attempt to repeal or neuter it.

    It’ll be interesting to see if it lasts another 10 years. If the GOP ever loses Congress and the Whitehouse, it will be gone in 5 minutes.

    In the meantime, the exodus from the high tax hell-holes continues.

  5. I like this one because of the headline.

    https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/01/01/schadenfreude-democrats-look-to-eliminate-aocs-house-seat/

    As RedState reported on Monday, multiple blue strongholds are set to lose House seats after the 2020 census. This is due to population shifts to places like Texas, Florida, and Arizona. California saw the largest out-migration, with New York not far behind. That means that both states are almost certainly going to lose representatives.
    …
    New York itself is projected to lose two seats, which will mean a very heated redistricting process mostly led by the old guard. One of the casualties is expected to be AOC’s district. The official explanation is that her district is immigrant-heavy, leading to claims of intimidation and under-counting. The more likely explanation is that Democrats are sick of her shtick, which has undoubtedly hurt the party going in 2020.

    The crazy communist ideas, the endorsing Bernie Sanders, and the flaunting of leadership have led AOC to be largely despised within her caucus. Because she’s so loved by younger Democrats, though, such a move to push her out could lead to massive divisions within the party.

  6. “new immigrants (many of them illegal) and their US-born citizen children.”
    You do not become a US citizen simply because you were born here. Otherwise there would have been no need for congress to pass the Indian citizenship act in 1923 making the US Indians citizens of the US.

  8. She is not bringing any bacon to NYC, and she is a show boat, so I think it’s very possible that she will lose to a Democratic primary challenger, if someone has the gumption to take her on. The NY state legislature might not love her after the census and want to protect more networked members of Congress.

  9. I can never figure out why people think it’s a good thing that people move from deep blue states like California, New York, etc. to red states. It’s not like they vote differently when they get there. Instead they turn purple states blue and red states purple. My state of Washington used to be purple but now after 20 years of Californians moving in it is deep blue. Numerous other examples and if it continues it’s going be really difficult for Republicans to win national elections.

    Stay in your screwed up states I say.

  10. Ray:

    You can create your own interpretation, but the legal fact is that they are citizens if they are born here.

    Indians are a separate case, because of tribal sovereignty.

  11. Griffin:

    It depends who comes to the state and why they come. I don’t have time to find it now, but I remember reading a study that said that in some states it has worked that way (turning the red state blue) and in some it has not had that effect because the new arrivals have come because they are more conservative than the state they left.

  12. neo,

    Maybe so, I guess I’m influenced by who moved into Washington. It was at first people coming for first wave tech companies like Microsoft and then in recent years it has been companies like Amazon. They were younger and almost uniformly Democrat voters and now they are the crazy ones with the pronouns and stuff not just a good old liberal. I’m not as well versed on other states but I think something similar has happened to Colorado and is happening in Texas now.

    It’s also not just elections it’s cultural. It is amazing how many have no knowledge of the area (and no desire to learn) beyond a decade or two ago. So many fun traditional things have just been wiped from existence here in recent years.

    Wow, I’m sounding old now.

  13. Griffin:

    I think this may have been the sort of thing I’m thinking about. A lot of Massachusetts residents moved to NH in recent decades and most people believe that was responsible for moving NH more to the blue side (it’s currently fairly purple). But it wasn’t the Massachusetts arrivals:

    A 2006 University of New Hampshire survey found that New Hampshire residents who had moved to the state from Massachusetts were mostly Republican. The influx of new Republican voters from Massachusetts has resulted in Republican strongholds in the Boston exurban border towns of Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, while other areas have become increasingly Democratic. The study indicated that immigrants from states other than Massachusetts tended to lean Democratic.

    Also, in NH it used to be that students there temporarily could vote there, and in a very small state like NH that can make a big difference. They recently passed a law that purports to make it a bit harder for students to vote there.

  14. I grew up in Colorado and my brother is still there. All of the native Coloradoans say the state was Californicated. Those immigrants definitely helped turn the state blue, along with the influx of illegals.

  15. https://libertyunyielding.com/2019/12/31/2020-census-current-data-project-representation-gain-for-southern-western-states/

    New state census totals show population continuing to shift from the North and Midwest to the South and Southwest in ways that could help states that have voted Republican in recent years. …

    Changes based on next year’s census will not affect the 2020 presidential election.

    Based on Monday’s figures, Texas is poised to gain two congressional seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are each expected to gain one.

    Eight states are likely to lose one seat: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California.

    For those worried that the blues of the blue states is just shifting territory, this is a good sign:

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/2020-election-texas-trump-california

    The latest Census Bureau data shows that more than 86,000 California residents moved to Texas in 2018 alone and that’s raising the question of whether or not they are bringing their politics with them ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
    …
    “On the one hand, the economy being good — you would think would benefit Republicans. On the other hand, if Texas, in particular, is really good and folks are coming from blue states to red, does that make Texas potentially more of a pickup target for Democrats in 2020?” she asked her guest Chris Wilson, a former Ted Cruz campaign pollster and CEO of WPA Intelligence.
    Wilson said that is a phenomenon that he is watching very closely in his role as a pollster for Texas Governor Gregg Abbott.
    …
    “What we find is that in that first election, they cast a vote in, yes, they tend to be a little more Democratic than they do Republican,” he continued. “But the next election, b>and as they vote more and more, they become more Republican… we do find that after three to four elections, as people move in the state, they are highly more likely to be Republican than they are Democrat.”

    Wilson said he attributed some of that apparent effect to the increased standard of living that the new Texas residents may experience.

    “You can imagine you could sell you’re a little bitty small home that’s jammed in the city in San Francisco and go buy a mega-mansion in Plano, Texas… and have lots of land and go to good schools and not have homeless people leaving hypodermic needles on your front porch. So all these things got to factor into creating a new cultural experience for people as they moved to Texas,” Wilson argued.
    “So coming to Texas actually converts them to become Republican a little bit along the way?” joked Soltis Anderson.

    “They see what good government can do in a governor like Abbott and Republican representation and a good economy,” Wilson concluded, “it’s amazing the conversion process.”

    We can only hope he is right.
    Some are born conservative (and leave the blue states as soon as they can);
    some achieve conservatism (like the people Wilson notes);
    but do any have conservatism thrust upon them?

  16. It makes little difference, I suppose, that left-wing states are deemed “blue” in the US, and GOP states “red”, contrary to all the red leftist colors used elsewhere on the planet. But someone (who?) made that decision, and I suspect it was a media Democrat.
    I do not like being a “Red”. Do you?

  17. @ Cicero- I think you’re right about Democrats being behind the switch. They want to downplay their affinity for Communism. Wikipedia says Tim Russert was responsible, but it’s more complicated than that:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states

    I don’t like Republicans being called red; on the other hand it brings to mind “red-blooded”, which I like.

  18. Talking about citizenship, you might find this interesting given the earlier post about the TV show The Americans. “Canadian citizenship something ‘I really felt I had to fight for,’ says Toronto-born son of Russian spies. Alexander Vavilov’s parents were the models for the TV show The Americans”

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-dec-27-2019-1.5409103/canadian-citizenship-something-i-really-felt-i-had-to-fight-for-says-toronto-born-son-of-russian-spies-1.5409349

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