The election of 2020
No, I don’t have a crystal ball, and I’m not going to predict a winner. Hey, I don’t even know which Democrat is likely to be the nominee. And a lot can happen in the world between now and Election Day 2020.
But I will say this: if Trump ends up being re-elected, the Democrats will go stark raving mad. I know, I know; you think they already have, but believe me you ain’t seen nothing yet compared to what would be likely to happen if Trump wins a second term.
And if he were to win a second term by winning in the Electoral College and losing the popular vote once again, the Democrats will go stark raving mad squared.
I will make another prediction: Democrats will do what they can, legal and/or illegal, to make sure that Trump loses by such huge margins in blue states and blue cities, that even if he wins the Electoral College he will lose the popular vote and give them a talking point for abolishing the Electoral College.
We were very fortunate in 2004 that it wasn’t a repeat of 2000 and all the fallout from the fact that in 2000 not only did Bush win without winning the popular vote, but the Electoral College votes were balanced on a razor-thin edge that required SCOTUS intervention. In 2004, Bush won not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote, and although the election was close it was not so close as to be disputed in any real way.
The closer that elections are—and many in recent years have been exceedingly close—and the more often a Republican wins without the popular vote, the more motivation there is for the Democrats to advocate abolition of the Electoral College (see this). It’s not rocket science; it’s logical.
And since for the most part the Democrats control the voting in our biggest cities—not only because they have such large margins in those cities but because the entire apparatus of each city is set up by Democrats—if they want to skew things even further towards larger Democratic majorities through their rules about voting, or if they want to conveniently “find” more votes if they need them, or to allow vote “harvesting” and the like, they can do it fairly easily because of that control. And the more that votes in blue cities in blue states get skewed towards more and more votes for Democrats, the more the popular vote will swell for the Democratic presidential candidate without the Electoral College being affected, and the more likely it will be that even if the Republican nominee wins in the Electoral College, he or she will lose the popular vote. This would give the Democrats talking points galore for its abolition.
I suspect that if Trump manages to win the popular vote their heads will spin around and then explode.
Invest in antipsychotic drugs and maybe helmuts that keep the exploding heads contained.
“the [2000] Electoral College votes were balanced on a razor-thin edge that required SCOTUS intervention.”
The reason for the SCOTUS intervention was also because of the Florida Supreme Court and it’s atrocious decision. Their chief justice stated in his dissent that it was one of the worst decisions he’d ever presided over.
in scientific American there is a great article from decades ago on the electoral college, and its math and was excellent…
you can not find it any more…
this blog is what you find now
The Funky Math of the Electoral College
Everyone knows it’s a weird way to elect presidents—but it’s even crazier than you think
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-funky-math-of-the-electoral-college/
favorite author covered some
MATHEMATICAL GAMES
Martin Gardner
Scientific American
Vol. 243, No. 4 (October 1980), pp. 16-26B, M1-M8
A great older friend of mine, emailed me last night and his prediction is the Democrats are launching such a circus of contenders that Trump, who he hates, he listed all Trumps faults, will win once more. This man is retired, top law student in his class and nationally known for his meticulous work in his specialty and he also has family high up in the diplomatic circles in Washington. Smartest man I know even if we don’t see eye to eye on politics.
In his late 70’s he said at least he won’t have too many more years to worry about this stuff and our grandchildren will have to deal with it.
If popular vote matters, then red voters in deep blue states will have a reason to vote. And while few, they are in the most populous states, whereas there are fewer blue voters in deep red states.
Just because the popular vote went Hillary doesn’t, of itself, mean she would have won a popular vote.
Chester Draws:
I think you have a point there, at least theoretically.
I’m predicting Trump wins the popular vote in 2020 — because of nothingburger Mueller report AND great economy. Yes, based partly on increasing national debt.
There will be lots of “silent” Trump supporters, who will even verbally agree with some critiques of him, to get along with liberal friends (and bosses), but still vote for him.
City vs country will be an ever-increasing problem for the rest of our lives — unless (until?) cities win. Reps need to find out how to get stronger in cities.
I think Job Guarantee, instead of UBI, will be politically required, so I advocate it.
Howard Shultz will probably run and play a reverse Ross Perot. There are no Democrats of any stature running, and their move left is a total loser outside their own echo chamber.
The voting public will be so sick of endless Democrat refusal to do anything but block Trump that he will take back the House. Trump will ask the voters to give him legislators that will legislate, and they will comply.
In a nice way, Neo is saying what I strongly believe: The Democratic Party is peopled by power-mad totalitarians who seek the reduction of America to the level of another Belgium. The Dems will not be as civilized as the EU autocrats though.
The reason for the SCOTUS intervention was also because of the Florida Supreme Court and it’s atrocious decision. Their chief justice stated in his dissent that it was one of the worst decisions he’d ever presided over.
Yes, and they should have stopped at the 7-2 decision on the Florida Supreme Court shenanigans. I know the arguments about the vote count but it was politically unwise.
“you ain’t seen nothing yet compared to what would be likely to happen if Trump wins a second term.
And if he were to win a second term by winning in the Electoral College and losing the popular vote once again, the Democrats will go stark raving mad squared.” neo
They’ll try to assassinate him. Their fanaticism has now deepened to the point where they’re incapable of accepting a fair defeat.
Chester Draws on March 22, 2019 at 7:34 pm at 7:34 pm said:
If popular vote matters, then red voters in deep blue states will have a reason to vote. And while few, they are in the most populous states, whereas there are fewer blue voters in deep red states.
Just because the popular vote went Hillary doesn’t, of itself, mean she would have won a popular vote.
* * *
They will also have to count ALL of the absentee ballots, which some don’t when the outcome cannot be affected even if all of them vote for the same candidate.
So, look for the Dems to do more to stifle the Military vote (past examples may or may not be in the internet anymore, but I remember them); “lose” ballots from areas they expect to go Red, and whatever else is needed.
But then, if the Popular Vote becomes the Totality of Elections, maybe Republicans will be less willing to roll over and (just for instance) agree to court orders that they not contest elections.
Artfldgr on March 22, 2019 at 6:48 pm at 6:48 pm said:
in scientific American there is a great article from decades ago on the electoral college, and its math and was excellent…
you can not find it any more…
* * *
Everything is on the internet except what they suppress.
The Gardner article is behind the SA paywall, but here is a good look at the things he wrote about.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-top-10-martin-gardner-scientific-american-articles/
FWIW, we used to take Scientific American, National Geographic, and American Heritage so we could keep up with the “liberal arts” after college.
We dropped all three when they got more interested in “liberal propaganda” back in the nineties.